December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Concerning the system for mainly Friday and Saturday. There will be a area of heavy rainfall and at the moment near the I-71 corridor. What we forgot to mentioned is the temp difference those days. If yo are south of the front 60's is very likely and if you are north we are talking about a cold rain with highs in the upper 30's and low 40's.

[Bgoney]

Low temperature Wednesday morning at Fairbanks Airport -40F/C, same as the low temp Tuesday. This the first December since 2012 with back-to back days of -40F/C or lower (nine straight days that December). The longest -40 streak is 18 days in Jan 1971.

[tron777]

The wind has diminished for us locally for now anyway and it's nice outside right now. Tunes, cold beer and the grill is going here. Baked potatoes and eventually some prime rib steaks are on the menu.

Give me 30 and I will be over lol.

LOL! It was tasty and tender.

[tron777]

Low temperature Wednesday morning at Fairbanks Airport -40F/C, same as the low temp Tuesday. This the first December since 2012 with back-to back days of -40F/C or lower (nine straight days that December). The longest -40 streak is 18 days in Jan 1971.

Very cold there, so of course we are very warm here. You've heard of the old rubber band theory. When we snap back, we're going to snap back hard! Hopefully that will be in January when everything begins to line up. That's the hope anyway. We'll know the reality of it in the next few weeks.

[Bgoney]

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm

[tron777]

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm

I mentioned the other day that this would be a possibility. Cold is going to be delayed even further then my current thinking is if this is correct. Ugh... Tropics are screwing with the MJO wave yet again. What is this? The third time now that this has happened if I remember correctly? This would explain why the Aussie data shows that the MJO went into Phase 7 on 12/11 and 12/12 but back into Phase 6 on 12/13. I haven't seen any updates since then.

[tron777]

TOR Watch issued for parts of MN and Wisc for the first time ever in December. Wow...


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/

[tpweather]

Low temperature Wednesday morning at Fairbanks Airport -40F/C, same as the low temp Tuesday. This the first December since 2012 with back-to back days of -40F/C or lower (nine straight days that December). The longest -40 streak is 18 days in Jan 1971.

I was trying to remember but I believe 1971 was a weak La Nina and locally we could never really get cold if I remember correctly. 2012 was after a strong and moderate La Nina the 2 years before and that was probably the hang over affect. Fairbanks folks though will get out the shorts next week as temps rise nearly 70 degrees by Monday.

[tron777]

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm

I mentioned the other day that this would be a possibility. Cold is going to be delayed even further then my current thinking is if this is correct. Ugh... Tropics are screwing with the MJO wave yet again. What is this? The third time now that this has happened if I remember correctly? This would explain why the Aussie data shows that the MJO went into Phase 7 on 12/11 and 12/12 but back into Phase 6 on 12/13. I haven't seen any updates since then.

Check out the typhoon... much stronger then JWTC has forecasted. So I can see why it is zapping the energy away from the MJO wave, which is not good news.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... oater=WP28

[tron777]

Wow... this is crazy! From teens to 70s. No wonder why we have a massive severe wx event this evening.

ColdFront.jpg

[tron777]

75 for an all time December record high in Iowa City, IA... dang!

[tpweather]

Wow... this is crazy! From teens to 70s. No wonder why we have a massive severe wx event this evening.


ColdFront.jpg

You see this quite often in the winter but the teens yes are in the Dakota's and the 70's usually in Texas not Iowa.

[tron777]

Wow... this is crazy! From teens to 70s. No wonder why we have a massive severe wx event this evening.


ColdFront.jpg

You see this quite often in the winter but the teens yes are in the Dakota's and the 70's usually in Texas not Iowa.

Exactly Tim... I've seen below zero temps in Montana and 70s / 80s over TN and GA like in 1994. But having the warmth that far north like we are seeing right now is unheard of... at least in modern times.

[Bgoney]

Typhoon Rai has sucked the life out the MJO progression, might take even longer to advance in 7 with convection having to refire and gain momentum again to Rai east. I can see it sniffing 8 eventually but I think 1 has an extremely low chance atm

I mentioned the other day that this would be a possibility. Cold is going to be delayed even further then my current thinking is if this is correct. Ugh... Tropics are screwing with the MJO wave yet again. What is this? The third time now that this has happened if I remember correctly? This would explain why the Aussie data shows that the MJO went into Phase 7 on 12/11 and 12/12 but back into Phase 6 on 12/13. I haven't seen any updates since then.

Check out the typhoon... much stronger then JWTC has forecasted. So I can see why it is zapping the energy away from the MJO wave, which is not good news.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... oater=WP28

Oh I've been watching the satellite pics from that area for some time . I mentioned a week or so ago that the MJO wheel was very generous in its position in 7 at that time and it no doubt was. It's a good way to verify if the data is correct.

[MVWxObserver]

Today CVG reached 64, DAY 63, and CMH 60.

[MVWxObserver]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

INZ050-058-059-066-073-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060-061-162115-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-
408 PM EST Wed Dec 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAY ONE...Tonight.

Gusty southwest winds to 40-45 mph will be possible after midnight
tonight.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gusty southwest winds to 40-45 mph will be possible Thursday
morning.

$$

[Bgoney]

No changes for our rain event, a few showers later today with frontal passage. Might see some early morning sunshine tomorrow especially north of river before front moves back north midday with a few showers . Bulk of rain Still comes overnight Friday into noonish Saturday as the low moves along the boundary. Event total stays the same 1-2" with isolated 2.5" . Heaviest axis still fluctuating but still go with it centered near I-71 coridor

[tron777]

Oh I've been watching the satellite pics from that area for some time . I mentioned a week or so ago that the MJO wheel was very generous in its position in 7 at that time and it no doubt was. It's a good way to verify if the data is correct.

I think it might have went back into Phase 6 the last time the Aussies updated.

[tron777]

Bgoney has the short range covered nicely so I'll take a peek at Christmas Week. We should start off sunny and dry with avg Dec temps in the 40s for highs and 20s for lows. Our next system looks to come in around the Christmas Eve and Day time frame. The OP GFS is trying to bring in a little frozen precip changing to rain on Christmas Day. The CMC brings in rain on Christmas Day. The Euro has a deeper low tracking right over us so rain ending as some flakes. Not the best of news for Santa but with the MJO issues we have been talking about on here, it should come as no big shock to anyone. Still thinking the colder pattern comes to kick off the New Year so we will continue to monitor that and see how it goes.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and first of all this pattern is one that I missed. Usually in the late fall and winter patterns change a little faster but not this year and a total miss by me. This was like a slump in baseball where you go 0 for 20 and just need that bloop hit to get things going again. Concerning the system for Friday and Saturday and I believe 1 inch is a good call. The higher amounts will be isolated and exact location still hard to pinpoint until the system develops. Temp gradient will help fuel the added moisture and no doubt a 25 degree difference within 75 miles. As usual we are on the border and probably will get a taste of both temps but folks to the northwest may stay in the colder air most of the storm.

Next week back to a more normal outlook and probably the biggest item is the AO and the NAO will try and head negative. This of course does not mean snow storm after snow storm but it will let in some of the colder air in Canada head this way plus this tends to push weaker systems further south. So the Christmas weekend still has a shot of some snow. Again way to early for predictions but models should begin to filter more cold air in here late next week than they show at the moment. Reason I say that is because true arctic air in southern Canada and any small system will grab a piece of that and even without snow cover the cold air is dense and we are talking the least amount of sunshine during a year so yes the cold can move rather quick.

Even this upcoming weekend would not be surprised to see some snowflakes later on Saturday but not looking for any accumulation.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... I also missed the Dec. warmth. I know some folks did not call for a fast start to winter like I did, but I don't think anybody saw this coming as far as the major warmth is concerned. Jan and Feb are usually our best months so we'll see how things go. We haven't had a nice cold and snowy January in a while it's been mainly Feb and Mar for the last few years. Hopefully we can buck that trend. January is our coldest time of the year for temp averages so if we can get some snow, hopefully it would have more staying power. We'll worry about that bridge when we get there.

For Christmas Week, I outlined in my above post what the latest models are showing. Low confidence forecast but due to what's been going on, rain vs snow wouldn't really shock me. It would be par for the course actually. Anyway, we'll see. Too early to write off snow completely that is for sure. Plenty of time to watch things unfold.

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/12/16/snowta ... date-1216/

[Bgoney]

Lowest negative PDO Oct/Nov readings since 1955 which also makes it #2 all time for these months. Coming in at -2.55 and -2.52 respectively. With the Mega trough for most of the rest of December, the Dec readings should at least be in the same neighborhood. Perhaps another clue to the failed, so far, December temps

[tron777]

Lowest negative PDO Oct/Nov readings since 1955 which also makes it #2 all time for these months. Coming in at -2.55 and -2.52 respectively. With the Mega trough for most of the rest of December, the Dec readings should at least be in the same neighborhood. Perhaps a clue to the failed December temps

Most definitely! The -PDO usually favors a -PNA pattern and the MJO isn't doing us any favors attm either. I am still surprised that the falling QBO hasn't helped. You won't find many examples of a warm winter with a QBO that negative. It has happened during a Nina before but not very often. Hopefully the -QBO will start to help since the blocking is coming back for January. The -PDO and -PNA aren't going to go away in my current opinion but we can still score if the cold air can somehow make it farther to the south. If the MJO somehow manages to get into Phase 8 we'll be fine. Of course, we can't bet on that happening as of yet since the West Pac tropics continue to reek havoc on the MJO waves trying to do just that. A tough battle shaping up for snow lovers but we should be able to muster up something due to the active pattern alone as well as the nice snowpack to the north. Cold air is readily available, just have to see if we can tap into it.

[tron777]

Light rain has started up with a few light showers around. Bulk of the activity is still over Central IN so a wet afternoon ahead.