December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Going to go ahead and start the December thread since Met Winter is fast approaching. Too bad Mother Nature currently has other plans attm. Today's 12Z GFS is very warm but the GEFS is not. CMC also looks more wintry as did the 0Z run from overnight. Will the MJO ever help us or continue to do nothing? Even though the pattern is currently boring, we have a lot of background noise to keep an eye on. Discuss!

[Bgoney]

First week of December temp anomalies for the lower 48, EU/GFS.

floop-ecmwf_full-2021112812.sfct_anom.conus.gif

floop-gfs-2021112812.sfct_anom.conus.gif

[tron777]

Just looked at the 12Z EPS and it keeps the core of the cold locked up over AK and Canada. PV is almost like a football shape which is never good to get the cold down here to the lower latitudes.

[Bgoney]

FFS6rG3UUAMTn5J.jpeg

Bering Sea Ice extent to date., the most since 2012 and well above the 30 year mean. Brief Late week warm up will slow expansion, before more cold moves back in.., but will be interesting to see where the November extent finishes

[tron777]

Ice and snow coverage is great in the higher latitudes. Just need a way to transport the cold more southward.

[Bgoney]

Bethel AK record low temperature of -27F (-32.8C) for Nov 28th was tied Sunday morning. The lowest November temp on record is -31F (-35.0C) on Nov 30, 1939. That could be tied or broken Monday morning.
King SALMON AK tied the record November all time low of -28. (1917, 1988)

[tpweather]

Good Morning and we talked last week about how cold it could get in the interior early this week and lows are lower than models showed last week. Starting to see signs that a storm will head into southwest Alaska later this week and of course more snow as the cold is still around. Can this system though be strong enough and have enough milder air to push the cold further east and yes that is possible but we know sometimes cold with heavier than normal snow cover can take longer to move.

[cloudy72]

Bethel AK record low temperature of -27F (-32.8C) for Nov 28th was tied Sunday morning. The lowest November temp on record is -31F (-35.0C) on Nov 30, 1939. That could be tied or broken Monday morning.
King SALMON AK tied the record November all time low of -28. (1917, 1988)

Yeah the cold up in Alaska has been quite impressive, even for their standards. Saw where Arctic Village was at least -45 air temp this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and looks like a nice stretch of weather this week and how warm do we get. Low 60's for Thursday and Friday look great to get that last minute outdoor chores done. Late last week the models for the most part went more towards a longer term mild period. We know the Euro flipped 180 degrees with one run. I hear weather folks blame the change of seasons but guess what that should be in the equation of these models because the change of seasons happens all the time. Plenty of signs in the pattern showing a return to cold weather and cold weather that will last imo. That starts this weekend and storminess will help usher in much colder air. You can already tell the jet has strengthen and with the recent couple of fronts winds have been picking up in each case and this shows the jet getting stronger. Will the cold blast come all at one time or just a progression of cold fronts and does look like several fronts starting this weekend will usher in the cold. Over the past two weeks their has been some Canadian air work its way south but no doubt has directed further east and yes we even had a 19 degree low with barely getting in on some true cold air. That air has gotten colder over the past 10 days so getting a storm system to tap that cold is what we need to see some of that drain further south and west. Will we get the true polar air over Alaska and even parts of Europe as we speak and that part may take a little longer to get here but no doubt I see seasonally cold air in here starting next week which gives us one of those weeks where we can get either rain or snow. After that lets she what mother nature has in store but I believe before Christmas we will have had a couple of systems producing snow for our local area.

[dce]

Good Morning and looks like a nice stretch of weather this week and how warm do we get. Low 60's for Thursday and Friday look great to get that last minute outdoor chores done. Late last week the models for the most part went more towards a longer term mild period. We know the Euro flipped 180 degrees with one run. I hear weather folks blame the change of seasons but guess what that should be in the equation of these models because the change of seasons happens all the time. Plenty of signs in the pattern showing a return to cold weather and cold weather that will last imo. That starts this weekend and storminess will help usher in much colder air. You can already tell the jet has strengthen and with the recent couple of fronts winds have been picking up in each case and this shows the jet getting stronger. Will the cold blast come all at one time or just a progression of cold fronts and does look like several fronts starting this weekend will usher in the cold. Over the past two weeks their has been some Canadian air work its way south but no doubt has directed further east and yes we even had a 19 degree low with barely getting in on some true cold air. That air has gotten colder over the past 10 days so getting a storm system to tap that cold is what we need to see some of that drain further south and west. Will we get the true polar air over Alaska and even parts of Europe as we speak and that part may take a little longer to get here but no doubt I see seasonally cold air in here starting next week which gives us one of those weeks where we can get either rain or snow. After that lets she what mother nature has in store but I believe before Christmas we will have had a couple of systems producing snow for our local area.

Good post! We have seen fairly low temperatures and even some accumulating snow with just "seasonably" cold air so far this Autumn season. It seems like the atmosphere is leaning to the cold side. The models last night have started to lean back to the cold side in the medium range, as you have talked about in your post. The usual model flip flops. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[tron777]

CMC still trying to cook up something near Day 10. Euro and GFS def have trended better as well as the overnight Ensembles. Still though, I am seeing a +EPO and not a lot of blocking. SW ridge not coming eastward is helping out in that regard. So not a torch pattern at all but one with ups and downs. Pattern is improving on the overnight runs just not yet ideal. Still a lot of time to watch.

[MVWxObserver]

Will be keeping tabs on the week of Dec 13th - 18th for any winter systems in the OV or East as my sister and her family in NC will be coming to Ohio for an early Christmas celebration.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has went warmer. CMC lost the fantasy cold and snowy look too. Going to have to go the warmer route due to the Teleconnections and MJO not going to Phase 8 as the Aussie model showed a few days ago. That is going to be wrong.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon Les. We have been pretty much on the same page over the past month but finally the paths will be apart starting over the weekend. We both have our methods for forecasting and many times it leads us to the same outcome. This upcoming period I believe those paths may not cross to later in December.

Concerning La Nina and the mjo. So far its been a weak La Nina though it has some strengthening going on. The mjo which is at the moment in phase 4 or 5 but very weak and that is usually not the case during a weak La Nina. The mjo typically is strong during this type of pattern and has thrown some kinks into the forecasting area and maybe that is the cause of the models to flip every 48 hours or so. Always trying to understand what a model throws out and why it may not fit a typical pattern and their is where the headaches begin. I use the models as a tool but when that tool does not work for my methods then my confidence level goes down. When I see something in the pattern to change my longer term forecast I give it a day or two to see if its really something I need to change and so far the current set up has not made me go to the warmer side next week. Could that change this week and sure its possible as we know Mother Nature as the final say.

[tron777]

Good afternoon Tim The OP models have flipped and flopped and the Ensembles have sometimes too. But the Tellies are pointing to warm and the MJO is not in a helpful state either. I think a couple of glancing shots at cold but nothing sustainable yet for the first half of Dec. Hopefully the second half changes and our paths cross.

[tron777]

Wed is looking like a higher chance for rain now with a warm front coming thru. Models trying to show a tenth of an inch or so now. Otherwise we should be dry until Sunday.

[Bgoney]

I think the first week of Dec is well in hand , so , moving on to week 2 , the 8th -15th , it's a broken record for me. 3/4 days of above 3/4 days coollish, a fairly normal progressive pattern. The NW coast is going to get drenched during this period, Alaska stays frigid, so the PAC pattern is the same. We lose the AO and NAO during that week , so cutters should rule if any surface lows should develop

[Bgoney]

MJO possibly making a move into the pac

mjo6.PNG

[tron777]

1st half of the month isn't looking pretty no doubt...

[tron777]

Good morning all! The pattern looks to be turning more active as time goes on. Not a lot of wintry weather to talk about right now but we'll keep watching for changes. For now... a little rain tomorrow, maybe a little frozen action to start for those of you to the north. Then again on Sunday with rain for everyone. Then another shot towards the middle of next week.

[tpweather]

Heading in to the winter season and really excited about the upcoming winter. Lowest temp I could find this morning was -57 in northeast Siberia and this goes along with the cold in Alaska. Saying that the -57 is the coldest and we start to see a milder trend for them. Saying that we are talking about lows in the -30's instead of -50's. That is closer to normal for them. Usually a pattern change is done with a bigger system or two. No doubt the lack of storms in the USA has met the status quo for a rather long period. How big is the storm coming into southwest Alaska later this week and will this help in dislodging the cold to head further east. Do we need a big storm in the USA and probably so and though my thought process was a big storm this weekend models are not on my side. Even though the mjo has been in phases 4 and 5 for sometime the wave is weak in nature. We need this to move and head towards phases 7 and 8. By doing that phase 6 comes into play and no doubt a warm phase but if the wave continues then it should be a quick shot of warmth. The tellies are a product of the pattern and sometimes they agree in the long term but when their is a pattern change the tellies can be somewhat late to the party with the change. This can happen with a change to cold or warm. Though I am worried about my timing of this weekend to a big change for us I still believe the change is coming and expecting a couple of chances for snow before Christmas. With Europe getting really cold at the moment this is usually a good sign for us 7-10 days down the road and though it sometimes does not play out that way but I believe over the years this has been a good tell sign that a different pattern is on its way.

[tron777]

The deal with the MJO at this time... it looks to go into 6, then tries to get into 7, but loops back into 6 again, before finally getting into 7 again as we approach mid month. That re-looping back into 6 if correct, delays any sort of pattern change until after mid month. Not saying we won't see some snow in the first half of Dec, but the chances are looking low at this point in time. Hopefully the second half has a better outcome in time for Christmas.

[dce]

The deal with the MJO at this time... it looks to go into 6, then tries to get into 7, but loops back into 6 again, before finally getting into 7 again as we approach mid month. That re-looping back into 6 if correct, delays any sort of pattern change until after mid month. Not saying we won't see some snow in the first half of Dec, but the chances are looking low at this point in time. Hopefully the second half has a better outcome in time for Christmas.

I think the GFS forecast for the MJO has been more accurate than the Euro. The Euro is still trying to get into phase 5 and has been for days, but you can see the the MJO is heading straight to phase 6, as the GFS has been accurately predicting. Hopefully it will eventually make it to phase 7. Until then, let's enjoy the milder temps while we still can.

[tron777]

We will probably see the 60s on Thurs and Fri. A good week to get any last minute yard work done and putting up Christmas Lights and such.

[cloudy72]

So looks like the 12z NAM went further north with most of the rainfall for tomorrow. CVG only showing 0.04" with 0.27" at DAY.