December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good morning everyone! Not much change to the forecast for the next few days. Wind is the bigger issue today and tomorrow with 30-50 mph gusts possible. A few showers this morning with the warm front, not a big deal. Better rain chances come in tomorrow with the heaviest action still on tap Fri afternoon thru Sat morning. Still looking at a general 1-2" with isolated higher amounts possible in our Southern counties.

We drop back to seasonal temps Sunday into early next week with some sunshine expected. Highs in the 40s lows in the 20s which is typical for December. We may see another front just before Christmas that brings in a shot of colder air for the big holiday but I think that is transient in nature before a better pattern takes shape as we ring in the New Year. Still keeping an eye on the longer term.

[tron777]

Minnesota has never registered a December Tornado. Could today change that? Let's hope not. The winds are going to be an issue for a lot of folks even without t-storms. Remarkable to see a moderate risk issued for Iowa and SE MN in December! Practically unheard of.

[Bgoney]

Minnesota has never registered a December Tornado. Could today change that? Let's hope not. The winds are going to be an issue for a lot of folks even without t-storms. Remarkable to see a moderate risk issued for Iowa and SE MN in December! Practically unheard of.

Yea, I saw satellite pics where there is snow on the ground atm where part of the mod risk is

[tron777]

Minnesota has never registered a December Tornado. Could today change that? Let's hope not. The winds are going to be an issue for a lot of folks even without t-storms. Remarkable to see a moderate risk issued for Iowa and SE MN in December! Practically unheard of.

Yea, I saw satellite pics where there is snow on the ground atm where part of the mod risk is

Yeah... S MN just got 8-14" of snow and now this. Wow... What a wild December it has been!

[tron777]

SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/12/15/snowta ... date-1215/

[cloudy72]

Historic wind storm is underway in the central US :

Current wind gusts:

107 mph at Lamar, CO
89 mph at Las Vegas, NM

[tpweather]

Historic wind storm is underway in the central US :

Current wind gusts:

107 mph at Lamar, CO
89 mph at Las Vegas, NM

That is wild anytime of the year.

[cloudy72]

Current mesoanalysis shows a well defined squall/bow flying northeastward into western Kansas. Winds have gusted over 100 mph with this line.

Squall-Line.PNG

[tron777]

There's some good helicity too over Iowa and S MN as well as 500 J/kg of SB CAPE over much of Iowa. Not a good situation unfolding for high winds or severe t-storms. Just hope it doesn't get as bad as what we saw in KY. In addition to MN never having recorded a December TOR, Wisc has not either.

[tron777]

Wow... 86 mph gust reported at Garden City, KS. All time record highs for December are ongoing too. Currently 71 at Des Moines, IA and Cedar Rapids is at 70.

[cloudy72]

Record high tied at DAY = 63 degrees

[westharrisonwx]

Current mesoanalysis shows a well defined squall/bow flying northeastward into western Kansas. Winds have gusted over 100 mph with this line.


Squall-Line.PNG

Goodland KS just issued a Dust Storm Warning a little bit ago. That squall line kicked up a wall of dust moving 80mph!

[tron777]

For us locally... 60s and wind today then we'll see rain to go along with the wind tomorrow esp in the afternoon. A break then more rain Fri afternoon into the day on Sat. Not much change in our local forecast at this point.

[cloudy72]

Gust of 100 mph at the Air Force Academy near Colorado Springs!

[cloudy72]

...

mcd2027.gif

[tron777]

1st MD for the mod risk area:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2027.html

EDIT: Mike beat me to it.

[cloudy72]

Garden City KS 89 mph

[airwolf76]

i cant believe those wind gusts out there. straight line wind gusts that strong can cause quite a bit of damage also

[tron777]

Quick long term thoughts:

I am seeing more and more models showing a dual blocking structure to the North American 500 MB pattern. You've got an Alaskan ridge or -EPO that is centered a little too far west for us, but you get the arctic air dumping into Western Canada and into the Northern Rockies / Plains. We've also got a nicely placed -NAO pushing well into Greenland. However, at the same time we continue to have a robust -PNA which will keep the storms crashing into the West Coast and ridging will want to fight the cold air attacks as they come in with each storm. By the time we get towards New Year's and beyond, I think if the MJO does get into deep Phase 7 if not even Phase 8, the cold shouldn't have a problem getting down to us. I think the core of the coldest air stays NW of us which is fine. We just need 20s and 30s for snow which would work. Again patience is needed but I am really beginning to like what I see as we approach New Year's and beyond

A check of the Tellies shows the AO and NAO going negative over the next week. How deeply negative they go is still up for debate. PNA still negative and I see no signs of that changing in the next couple of weeks. I think the SE ridge retrogrades to Texas / S Plains area. MJO forecasts from the GFS and Euro keep the MJO in Phase 7 thru 12/29. The Euro monthly which does go into January quite a ways is showing Phase 8 being possible after 1/10/22. Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO model has Phase 8 by early January and Phase 1 sometime during Week 2. If this pans out the first half of January could be very interesting. A wait and see game this far away obviously.

[cloudy72]

Geez!!!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wichita KS
133 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Rice County in central Kansas...
Lincoln County in central Kansas...
Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
Russell County in central Kansas...
Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CST.

* At 131 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Luray to near Great Bend, moving northeast at
50 mph.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS!

HAZARD...80 TO 90 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and
businesses will have substantial roof and window damage.
Expect extensive tree damage and power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
Great Bend, Russell, Lyons, Ellsworth, Hoisington, Sterling,
Ellinwood, Wilson, Claflin, Kanopolis, Lincoln, Little River,
Chase, Holyrood, Lucas, Gorham, Bushton, Sylvan Grove, Geneseo and
Pawnee Rock.

[tron777]

Seeing a lot of TDS's on radar and radar est winds of 80-90 mph. I'd say the ground reports are going to be pretty accurate to what radar is showing over Nebraska.

[tpweather]

Quick long term thoughts:

I am seeing more and more models showing a dual blocking structure to the North American 500 MB pattern. You've got an Alaskan ridge or -EPO that is centered a little too far west for us, but you get the arctic air dumping into Western Canada and into the Northern Rockies / Plains. We've also got a nicely placed -NAO pushing well into Greenland. However, at the same time we continue to have a robust -PNA which will keep the storms crashing into the West Coast and ridging will want to fight the cold air attacks as they come in with each storm. By the time we get towards New Year's and beyond, I think if the MJO does get into deep Phase 7 if not even Phase 8, the cold shouldn't have a problem getting down to us. I think the core of the coldest air stays NW of us which is fine. We just need 20s and 30s for snow which would work. Again patience is needed but I am really beginning to like what I see as we approach New Year's and beyond

A check of the Tellies shows the AO and NAO going negative over the next week. How deeply negative they go is still up for debate. PNA still negative and I see no signs of that changing in the next couple of weeks. I think the SE ridge retrogrades to Texas / S Plains area. MJO forecasts from the GFS and Euro keep the MJO in Phase 7 thru 12/29. The Euro monthly which does go into January quite a ways is showing Phase 8 being possible after 1/10/22. Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO model has Phase 8 by early January and Phase 1 sometime during Week 2. If this pans out the first half of January could be very interesting. A wait and see game this far away obviously.

Great Post Les and just to add to your post. I believe next week is a step in the correct direction to bring hopefully some decent winter weather this way. Next week is one of those 4 weeks during the winter season where you can have either rain or snow which is much better than we have seen so far this season. Even at this point some of the models are trying to bring a system in here for either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day and yes there may be enough cold air around to see snow. Again way to early for predictions but with other signs that you have stated like the AO and NAO going negative that at least gives us a fighting chance until the end of the year and yes if the mjo will head into phases 8 and 1 in January the pattern will no doubt lean towards a colder month and hopefully a white one as well. Still concerned about the southwest ridge which is really a big problem this late fall/early fall season and if that continues in January with the other tellies turning out they way the are headed that could mean some nasty ice storms and could be near us as well but again lets see how the pattern changes and go from there. I will be gone from Dec 26th until Jan 2 but I hope there is some snow during that time period locally but please save the bigger storms until the 3rd of Jan lol.

[tron777]

Quick long term thoughts:

I am seeing more and more models showing a dual blocking structure to the North American 500 MB pattern. You've got an Alaskan ridge or -EPO that is centered a little too far west for us, but you get the arctic air dumping into Western Canada and into the Northern Rockies / Plains. We've also got a nicely placed -NAO pushing well into Greenland. However, at the same time we continue to have a robust -PNA which will keep the storms crashing into the West Coast and ridging will want to fight the cold air attacks as they come in with each storm. By the time we get towards New Year's and beyond, I think if the MJO does get into deep Phase 7 if not even Phase 8, the cold shouldn't have a problem getting down to us. I think the core of the coldest air stays NW of us which is fine. We just need 20s and 30s for snow which would work. Again patience is needed but I am really beginning to like what I see as we approach New Year's and beyond

A check of the Tellies shows the AO and NAO going negative over the next week. How deeply negative they go is still up for debate. PNA still negative and I see no signs of that changing in the next couple of weeks. I think the SE ridge retrogrades to Texas / S Plains area. MJO forecasts from the GFS and Euro keep the MJO in Phase 7 thru 12/29. The Euro monthly which does go into January quite a ways is showing Phase 8 being possible after 1/10/22. Kyle MacRitchie's experimental MJO model has Phase 8 by early January and Phase 1 sometime during Week 2. If this pans out the first half of January could be very interesting. A wait and see game this far away obviously.

Great Post Les and just to add to your post. I believe next week is a step in the correct direction to bring hopefully some decent winter weather this way. Next week is one of those 4 weeks during the winter season where you can have either rain or snow which is much better than we have seen so far this season. Even at this point some of the models are trying to bring a system in here for either Christmas Eve or Christmas Day and yes there may be enough cold air around to see snow. Again way to early for predictions but with other signs that you have stated like the AO and NAO going negative that at least gives us a fighting chance until the end of the year and yes if the mjo will head into phases 8 and 1 in January the pattern will no doubt lean towards a colder month and hopefully a white one as well. Still concerned about the southwest ridge which is really a big problem this late fall/early fall season and if that continues in January with the other tellies turning out they way the are headed that could mean some nasty ice storms and could be near us as well but again lets see how the pattern changes and go from there. I will be gone from Dec 26th until Jan 2 but I hope there is some snow during that time period locally but please save the bigger storms until the 3rd of Jan lol.

I'm on vacation from 12/24 thru 1/2 so hoping to track some wintry systems for a change. Confidence is low in the Christmas to New Year's period this far away. It'll take another week before we can hone in on that. But I think it'll look more interesting then the ridiculous warmth we've got right now.

[tron777]

The wind has diminished for us locally for now anyway and it's nice outside right now. Tunes, cold beer and the grill is going here. Baked potatoes and eventually some prime rib steaks are on the menu.

[tpweather]

The wind has diminished for us locally for now anyway and it's nice outside right now. Tunes, cold beer and the grill is going here. Baked potatoes and eventually some prime rib steaks are on the menu.

Give me 30 and I will be over lol.