Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter

[Bgoney]

JMA's first call for the winter.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

Also... from Meteo France:


C3S.png

1-2c. I think I’d take that and run with it

[tpweather]

JMA's first call for the winter.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

Also... from Meteo France:


C3S.png

Pretty much what you would expect from La NIna,

[tron777]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

[Bgoney]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

It’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the world

[tron777]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

It’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the world

Yes indeed which is why I am still going mild for the upcoming winter. We've got to see changes in the Pacific or why else would our winter outcome even change?

[fyrfyter]

IMG_8578.jpeg

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

[tron777]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

[Bgoney]

Update from the CPC on Enso. Note the cooling in the Bering Sea that we have been referring to in regards to the +WPO

IMG_2245.jpeg

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[tron777]

Update from the CPC on Enso. Note the cooling in the Bering Sea that we have been referring to in regards to the +WPO



IMG_2245.jpegIMG_2244.jpeg

I think the August PDO reading came up a smidge from July's but for Sept, IMO it may start to lower again. This -PDO is just frigging relentless!

EDIT Yeah, the July reading was-2.99 and Aug was -2.888

Also, the very high solar activity doesn't help matters either with regards to getting high latitude blocking. If anything that may work to help enhance the PV.

[Bgoney]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

We’ve got a battle going on with our wildlife prognosticators. I spoke to an exterminator recently and she said that the hornets have been building their nests closer to the ground this summer. We know what that means.

[tron777]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

We’ve got a battle going on with our wildlife prognosticators. I spoke to an exterminator recently and she said that the hornets have been building their nests closer to the ground this summer. We know what that means.

Yeah lol That is interesting! That fits my ideas unfortunately.

[Bgoney]

I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .

[tron777]

I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .

That's been the entire issue though (Strong Pac Jet) with the +WPO / -PDO combo I don't think that the strength of the Nina will have much of a say. That marine heatwave over Japan (and the offshore waters) IMO has really acted to intensify the Pacific Jet. What could be interesting though is if the Aleutian Ridge becomes more poleward. That can help cold air delivery into the Central and Eastern US. If it's flat, then the trough will be out west (-PNA) and we'll get the SE ridge here. That has been the issue for many winters in a row now by and large.

[tpweather]

Getting closer to the fall and winter season and so far La NIna is still not happening. Could we get there and of course we can but at the moment a weak version is the most likely version. The tropical season in the pacific has picked up this year compared to the last few years as they were in record territory in terms of lowest storms in a season. I believe this will help cool some of the very warm waters off the coast of Japan in the next few months as I believe we need this to happen to help in getting a better shot of a decent winter. No its not the only item we look at but over the past few winters these waters were very warm all the way through the winter time and we don't want to see that happen again.

[tron777]

Per the SST Anom. map below, two things stick out to me. The -PDO with the very warm waters around and east of Japan... and the La Nina getting better organized.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

I am concerned for a very strong Pacific Jet this season due to those very warm waters off of Japan. The Aleutian Ridge must be poleward to allow for some ridging out West to deflect the cold air into the Central and Eastern US. Otherwise, it will be mild for us IMO. Plenty of time to see what happens in the next couple of months.

[tpweather]

Les hopefully the storms in the pacific will start to cool off those waters. They have been very warm for at least 2 years and that is mainly due to no tropical activity but this summer we are starting to see a more normal pacific tropical season and yes their season really last much of the year.

[tron777]

Les hopefully the storms in the pacific will start to cool off those waters. They have been very warm for at least 2 years and that is mainly due to no tropical activity but this summer we are starting to see a more normal pacific tropical season and yes their season really last much of the year.

We'll see Tim! It would be great for some West Pac typhoons to transfer some of that heat towards Alaska and the high arctic. We'll see how things look going forward. So far, most of those tropical systems keep hitting China and not recurving.

[tron777]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

[tpweather]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

I agree Les and one thing that I see with this pattern is a rather strong southeast ridge and we know that brings warmth. I do believe that rain/snow totals will be on the higher side this year for us locally and folks north and west but with the strong ridge that means more rain than snow. Still have a few months before winter but we can get a lot of clues starting in October. Winter forecast are not easy and you never know what one item may be the stronghold but if we see the mjo in phases 4-6 we know that is never good for us locally to have much in the way on winter weather.

[tron777]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

I agree Les and one thing that I see with this pattern is a rather strong southeast ridge and we know that brings warmth. I do believe that rain/snow totals will be on the higher side this year for us locally and folks north and west but with the strong ridge that means more rain than snow. Still have a few months before winter but we can get a lot of clues starting in October. Winter forecast are not easy and you never know what one item may be the stronghold but if we see the mjo in phases 4-6 we know that is never good for us locally to have much in the way on winter weather.

We are in agreement right now Tim. Due to the severely -PDO and the onset of La Nina, I think they are feeding off of one another. If the IOD goes negative, which it is expected to do, then that favors MJO phases 4-6 in the winter which is no good. We do not want a GOA Vortex to set up. That is also the kiss of death for winter lovers as that floods the CONUS with mild Pacific Air and all the cold air stays locked up tight in Canada.

The thing that we need to have happen is for the Aleutian Ridge to be more pole ward. Then you can get a -EPO which would help to dump the cold into the Central / Eastern Us versus the Western US. As usual, we'll see, but that's where I'm at right now with my thoughts.

[tpweather]

Nothing new to report but what does La Nina mean for us is normally good news if you want shots of cold air this winter. Reason is with a La Nina you tend to really build up the cold air in Canada more than a El Nino year. How far the cold will go is always the key but I expect the main jet to be rather close to us this winter season which imo will brings us plenty of rain but can we get the timing correct so the cold and precip gives us some decent winter weather. Just no way to forecast that well in advance. You can get a rather strong southeast Ridge as well and that is always a concern and could keep us milder at times. As I see it so far is the northern and central plains along with the great lakes should have a much colder winter than they have seen in recent years. Each La Nina is different but some things do repeat and we will just need to watch for those as things develop. One item that many weak La Nina's have is a rather nice cold shot early in the season and talking late November/early December. Also many times you see a quick cold shot in mid-October but then rather mild until the bigger cold shot like I mentioned. Again many items to fall in place and my guess some we will see and others not so much. That is why the weather is such a puzzle

[tron777]

By far, a weak Nina is the best versus a mod or strong one. 1995-1996 was a weak Nina. 2010-2011 was a moderate one. 2007-2008 was a strong one, but we did get the March of 2008 system once the Nina collapsed enough. In the 1st two winters that I mentioned in this post, the Pacific pattern was much much better then what we're seeing currently and honestly, what we have been seeing for the last several winters. With the strongly -PDO in charge, that has caused a severe -PNA pattern which has kept the trough out West in the winter and a ridge for the East. Even with a -NAO in place, that -NAO blocking, has hooked up with the SE ridge time and time again to blow torch us. We'll just have to wait and see as the Fall goes on to see if winter begins to show some of its cards. For now, we desperately need help with the Pacific pattern 100%. That severely -PDO is absolutely still in charge and that has been one of my main concerns all along and why I keep banging the mild drum for the upcoming winter.

[dce]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

Wow! That is the tamest winter forecast JB has put out in years! I love it! That means we have a great chance to see a colder than normal winter! He's been off in his winter forecast for years now. This is exactly what the Dr ordered.

[tron777]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

Wow! That is the tamest winter forecast JB has put out in years! I love it! That means we have a great chance to see a colder than normal winter! He's been off in his winter forecast for years now. This is exactly what the Dr ordered.

I love your positive thinking here Doug! You never know! We do know one thing for sure, and that is that ENSO (no matter if it's a Nino or Nina) has not been acting as it should. Been noticing that since the 2015-2016 winter to be honest.

[dce]

Weatherbell has released their winter forecast and for once, it's not calling for a cold and snowy East Coast. It actually looks pretty reasonable to me:

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

Wow! That is the tamest winter forecast JB has put out in years! I love it! That means we have a great chance to see a colder than normal winter! He's been off in his winter forecast for years now. This is exactly what the Dr ordered.

I love your positive thinking here Doug! You never know! We do know one thing for sure, and that is that ENSO (no matter if it's a Nino or Nina) has not been acting as it should. Been noticing that since the 2015-2016 winter to be honest.

Yeah. It's been warmer than average across the East no matter what the Enso state has been. Honestly, no reason to believe that is going to change for this year. I do like our chances though with a weak La Nina. Neutral and week Ensos seem to be our best shot at cold and snow around here. Even if the winter is warmer than normal overall, I like our chances for a couple of colder and snowier periods mixed in with a weak or neutral Enso compared to a moderate to strong Enso.