1-2c. I think I’d take that and run with ittron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:56 pm JMA's first call for the winter.
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php
Also... from Meteo France:
C3S.png
Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
Pretty much what you would expect from La NIna,tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 11, 2024 4:56 pm JMA's first call for the winter.
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php
Also... from Meteo France:
C3S.png
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
It’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the worldtron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:32 am I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
Yes indeed which is why I am still going mild for the upcoming winter. We've got to see changes in the Pacific or why else would our winter outcome even change?Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 13, 2024 7:57 amIt’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the worldtron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 12, 2024 4:32 am I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
Update from the CPC on Enso. Note the cooling in the Bering Sea that we have been referring to in regards to the +WPO
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
I think the August PDO reading came up a smidge from July's but for Sept, IMO it may start to lower again. This -PDO is just frigging relentless!
EDIT Yeah, the July reading was-2.99 and Aug was -2.888
Also, the very high solar activity doesn't help matters either with regards to getting high latitude blocking. If anything that may work to help enhance the PV.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
We’ve got a battle going on with our wildlife prognosticators. I spoke to an exterminator recently and she said that the hornets have been building their nests closer to the ground this summer. We know what that means.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
Yeah lol That is interesting! That fits my ideas unfortunately.
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .
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Re: Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter
That's been the entire issue though (Strong Pac Jet) with the +WPO / -PDO combo I don't think that the strength of the Nina will have much of a say. That marine heatwave over Japan (and the offshore waters) IMO has really acted to intensify the Pacific Jet. What could be interesting though is if the Aleutian Ridge becomes more poleward. That can help cold air delivery into the Central and Eastern US. If it's flat, then the trough will be out west (-PNA) and we'll get the SE ridge here. That has been the issue for many winters in a row now by and large.Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 12:09 pm I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .