Another La Nina Incoming for the 2024-2025 Winter

[Bgoney]

JMA's first call for the winter.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

Also... from Meteo France:


C3S.png

1-2c. I think I’d take that and run with it

[tpweather]

JMA's first call for the winter.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produ ... pztmap.php

Also... from Meteo France:


C3S.png

Pretty much what you would expect from La NIna,

[tron777]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

[Bgoney]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

It’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the world

[tron777]

I agree guys... those models didn't look too bad compared to how winters have been. A lot of modeling is showing an active polar jet which is exactly what you'd expect from a La Nina. Do we get help from a -WPO or is it the usual +WPO / -PDO combo that will give us our standard -PNA pattern? We shall see! October is right around the corner and we usually can get a few clues during that month.

It’s been quite the 1/2 punch for the last few weeks. A recurring +WPO/-PDO have ruled the NPacific . As a result the Bering and Chukchi seas are some of most anomalously cold waters in the world

Yes indeed which is why I am still going mild for the upcoming winter. We've got to see changes in the Pacific or why else would our winter outcome even change?

[fyrfyter]

IMG_8578.jpeg

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

[tron777]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

[Bgoney]

Update from the CPC on Enso. Note the cooling in the Bering Sea that we have been referring to in regards to the +WPO

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[tron777]

Update from the CPC on Enso. Note the cooling in the Bering Sea that we have been referring to in regards to the +WPO



IMG_2245.jpegIMG_2244.jpeg

I think the August PDO reading came up a smidge from July's but for Sept, IMO it may start to lower again. This -PDO is just frigging relentless!

EDIT Yeah, the July reading was-2.99 and Aug was -2.888

Also, the very high solar activity doesn't help matters either with regards to getting high latitude blocking. If anything that may work to help enhance the PV.

[Bgoney]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

We’ve got a battle going on with our wildlife prognosticators. I spoke to an exterminator recently and she said that the hornets have been building their nests closer to the ground this summer. We know what that means.

[tron777]

Found a wooly worm on the grill cover today. Seems like a decent winter. Wooly Worm FTW!

I'm not a big believer in folklore but at the same time, I'd love for it to be right!

We’ve got a battle going on with our wildlife prognosticators. I spoke to an exterminator recently and she said that the hornets have been building their nests closer to the ground this summer. We know what that means.

Yeah lol That is interesting! That fits my ideas unfortunately.

[Bgoney]

I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .

[tron777]

I don’t have a winter forecast lean atm , but all I can say is if the LANINA stays in the weak/cool neutral category , i will gladly roll with it . This means (hopefully) that the PacJet will be weaker and won’t be overwhelming the entire US/South Canada with a blast furnace .

That's been the entire issue though (Strong Pac Jet) with the +WPO / -PDO combo I don't think that the strength of the Nina will have much of a say. That marine heatwave over Japan (and the offshore waters) IMO has really acted to intensify the Pacific Jet. What could be interesting though is if the Aleutian Ridge becomes more poleward. That can help cold air delivery into the Central and Eastern US. If it's flat, then the trough will be out west (-PNA) and we'll get the SE ridge here. That has been the issue for many winters in a row now by and large.