Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Thanks Bro! I'm recovering, it's just a slow process.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:24 pmPrayers for a quick recovery, Bro!
Those are the kind of departures we had back in those cold winters of 76-77 and 77-78. The latest on the mjo and what this means to the weather down the road. Just about all of November the mjo was in phase 4 and just moved around slowly but not a big amplification so the weather you had was pretty much what you saw in a repeat mode. Over the past 3 days though the amplification is somewhat stronger but the most important part is its moving and moving quite swiftly and if the current pace keeps up it will be in phase 6 by Thursday or Friday. My biggest fear was it continued to stay in phase 4 or just went back into the COD. Having this move is a great sign for colder weather down the road. Timing is always one of the toughest things to figure out and though I am a pattern person I have the same problems models have when trying to time these changes. No doubt storminess will increase and hopefully this will aid in turning the pattern to a more winter like pattern even though the last two weeks have been below normal in temps but very little in the way of storminess. Can we get the cold and storminess to meet and this is always the same issue's we have every winter season but at the moment I feel really good about this happening. Just a little over 3 weeks to Christmas and would love to see snow on the ground this year.
The MJO actually made it into phase 6 yesterday on the 30th. Hopefully it will move into phase 7 as the GFS has been forecasting. The Euro pretty much keeps it in phase 6.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:50 pmThose are the kind of departures we had back in those cold winters of 76-77 and 77-78. The latest on the mjo and what this means to the weather down the road. Just about all of November the mjo was in phase 4 and just moved around slowly but not a big amplification so the weather you had was pretty much what you saw in a repeat mode. Over the past 3 days though the amplification is somewhat stronger but the most important part is its moving and moving quite swiftly and if the current pace keeps up it will be in phase 6 by Thursday or Friday. My biggest fear was it continued to stay in phase 4 or just went back into the COD. Having this move is a great sign for colder weather down the road. Timing is always one of the toughest things to figure out and though I am a pattern person I have the same problems models have when trying to time these changes. No doubt storminess will increase and hopefully this will aid in turning the pattern to a more winter like pattern even though the last two weeks have been below normal in temps but very little in the way of storminess. Can we get the cold and storminess to meet and this is always the same issue's we have every winter season but at the moment I feel really good about this happening. Just a little over 3 weeks to Christmas and would love to see snow on the ground this year.
Good Morning and yes we talked about how long it took to get cold in Canada this year. The first two weeks well above normal but the last two of the month below normal and you get the slightly above normal at the end of the month.Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:05 am Quite the warm shot before our next cool down. We'll be double digits above normal until then. Some nice chore gettin done weather before our upcoming wet period.
Map of November departures for Canada. Pretty much the whole country slightly above normal, with the highest departures in the Hudson Bay area which is why HB is well below normal for ice extent
FFjJmALXwAQGV91.jpeg
The model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:19 am Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.
Hey Les and I know the guy you follow has it in the COD until mid-Dec. These models are so hard to follow and I end up going with the Aussies and the reason being is they tend to have the best model over a period of time plus those phases are so key concerning rainfall for them during the spring and early summer. As of Nov 30th still in phase 5 but heading towards 6 and with the current set up it seems reasonable to me.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:57 amThe model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:19 am Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.
I agree it can be confusing because different data sources, provide different results. MJO is actually in phase 6 right now if you look at the CPC website so again another difference.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:36 amHey Les and I know the guy you follow has it in the COD until mid-Dec. These models are so hard to follow and I end up going with the Aussies and the reason being is they tend to have the best model over a period of time plus those phases are so key concerning rainfall for them during the spring and early summer. As of Nov 30th still in phase 5 but heading towards 6 and with the current set up it seems reasonable to me.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:57 amThe model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:19 am Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.
Great site! Thanks for sharing. Oddly enough, here's phase 6 in December for a Nina.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:01 pm Everyone needs to save this awesome site in their bag of tricks.
https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/
It shows you MJO phases based on the ENSO state. So for this winter, we're using the MJO phases for a La Nina. It's in French but easy to figure out. In the first block you have the ENSO state: Nino, Nada (neutral) and Nina. Then across the top in French you have the months of the year. So for MJO phase 7, look at the DIC box (DIC is December) then click on Nina 7. MJO Phase 7 in a La Nina for December. You'll get the following look:
nina_7_dic_ok.png
That shows a gradient pattern so good for overrunning events if you're on the correct side of the baroclinic zone. The biggest take away is a massive -EPO which should stick out like a sore thumb on this composite image. That should get some cold into the Lower 48. How far south is a question because you still have the SE ridge to deal with as well. It's definitely an active pattern for sure.