December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The EPO briefly dips negative (the fold over ridge I've been talking about) before going back positive so there is that small chance for wintry weather next week. See the EPO forecast from the GEFS and EPS below.

GEFSEPO.jpg

EPSEPO.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Rainfall so far today in my hood at 0.09" with another round coming in from eastern Indiana within the hour. This looks to stay mainly north of the river at this time.

Good, hope it stays north of here so I can get my leaves ground up for the last time. Just waiting until I completely kick this nasty cold I've had since Thanksgiving.

Prayers for a quick recovery, Bro!

[MVWxObserver]

Didn't have out my gauge for this rain event.

Currently 41 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Rainfall so far today in my hood at 0.09" with another round coming in from eastern Indiana within the hour. This looks to stay mainly north of the river at this time.

Good, hope it stays north of here so I can get my leaves ground up for the last time. Just waiting until I completely kick this nasty cold I've had since Thanksgiving.

Prayers for a quick recovery, Bro!

Thanks Bro! I'm recovering, it's just a slow process.

[Bgoney]

November departures from normal for Alaska. Nearly the whole state, with some whoppers for the western half

FFjMvqmVkAI2QGg.jpeg

[tron777]

20+ degrees below normal for portions of AK... holy cow! I couldn't imagine that kind of cold. Amazing!

18Z GFS has the Sun system ending as flakes Mon morning. Then the low for the mid week wintry chance is still a cutter. Low tracks close to us which is not going to work out.

[Bgoney]

It's official , coldest November on record for a couple observation sites and top 5 coldest on record for a few more . But don't tell anyone.

FFj2cE8UcAEr7NW.png

[tpweather]

November departures from normal for Alaska. Nearly the whole state, with some whoppers for the western half



FFjMvqmVkAI2QGg.jpeg

Those are the kind of departures we had back in those cold winters of 76-77 and 77-78. The latest on the mjo and what this means to the weather down the road. Just about all of November the mjo was in phase 4 and just moved around slowly but not a big amplification so the weather you had was pretty much what you saw in a repeat mode. Over the past 3 days though the amplification is somewhat stronger but the most important part is its moving and moving quite swiftly and if the current pace keeps up it will be in phase 6 by Thursday or Friday. My biggest fear was it continued to stay in phase 4 or just went back into the COD. Having this move is a great sign for colder weather down the road. Timing is always one of the toughest things to figure out and though I am a pattern person I have the same problems models have when trying to time these changes. No doubt storminess will increase and hopefully this will aid in turning the pattern to a more winter like pattern even though the last two weeks have been below normal in temps but very little in the way of storminess. Can we get the cold and storminess to meet and this is always the same issue's we have every winter season but at the moment I feel really good about this happening. Just a little over 3 weeks to Christmas and would love to see snow on the ground this year.

[dce]

November departures from normal for Alaska. Nearly the whole state, with some whoppers for the western half



FFjMvqmVkAI2QGg.jpeg

Those are the kind of departures we had back in those cold winters of 76-77 and 77-78. The latest on the mjo and what this means to the weather down the road. Just about all of November the mjo was in phase 4 and just moved around slowly but not a big amplification so the weather you had was pretty much what you saw in a repeat mode. Over the past 3 days though the amplification is somewhat stronger but the most important part is its moving and moving quite swiftly and if the current pace keeps up it will be in phase 6 by Thursday or Friday. My biggest fear was it continued to stay in phase 4 or just went back into the COD. Having this move is a great sign for colder weather down the road. Timing is always one of the toughest things to figure out and though I am a pattern person I have the same problems models have when trying to time these changes. No doubt storminess will increase and hopefully this will aid in turning the pattern to a more winter like pattern even though the last two weeks have been below normal in temps but very little in the way of storminess. Can we get the cold and storminess to meet and this is always the same issue's we have every winter season but at the moment I feel really good about this happening. Just a little over 3 weeks to Christmas and would love to see snow on the ground this year.

The MJO actually made it into phase 6 yesterday on the 30th. Hopefully it will move into phase 7 as the GFS has been forecasting. The Euro pretty much keeps it in phase 6.

[Bgoney]

Quite the warm shot before our next cool down. We'll be double digits above normal until then. Some nice chore gettin done weather before our upcoming wet period.


Map of November departures for Canada. Pretty much the whole country slightly above normal, with the highest departures in the Hudson Bay area which is why HB is well below normal for ice extent

FFjJmALXwAQGV91.jpeg

[tpweather]

Quite the warm shot before our next cool down. We'll be double digits above normal until then. Some nice chore gettin done weather before our upcoming wet period.


Map of November departures for Canada. Pretty much the whole country slightly above normal, with the highest departures in the Hudson Bay area which is why HB is well below normal for ice extent


FFjJmALXwAQGV91.jpeg

Good Morning and yes we talked about how long it took to get cold in Canada this year. The first two weeks well above normal but the last two of the month below normal and you get the slightly above normal at the end of the month.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Quite the active period coming up starting on Sunday. Rain moves in by sometime in the afternoon and might end as some flurries Mon morning. The jury is still out on that. Then our next system which could bring snow and rain to the area comes in by Tues / Wed. Then, do we get a follow up rain maker right on its heels? Lots to keep an eye on esp for next week. Today (although windy), Fri, and Sat are good outside gettin' chores done days, as Bgoney would say.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.

[tron777]

Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.

The model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.

The model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.

Hey Les and I know the guy you follow has it in the COD until mid-Dec. These models are so hard to follow and I end up going with the Aussies and the reason being is they tend to have the best model over a period of time plus those phases are so key concerning rainfall for them during the spring and early summer. As of Nov 30th still in phase 5 but heading towards 6 and with the current set up it seems reasonable to me.

[tron777]

Good Morning and just another post about the mjo lol. We saw in November what can happen when the mjo is slightly active but remains in the same phase for an entire month. Extreme cold in Alaska and northeast Asia, heavy rains in eastern Australia and BC in Canada, very few systems in the USA. When the wave is stronger it usually moves along though it can take time but at least its moving so weather pattern will change. Bgoney brought this up earlier in November and he was exactly correct and I just expected the wave to continue but it just looped back around in a weak stage but this caused the weather pattern to repeat. We are seeing the movement but this just took place earlier this week and though its going into a warm phase which we will notice over the next few days will it continue into the cooler phases. The problem with the mjo forecasts is they are sometimes so terrible that it makes long term forecasting using that as a tool can mess up the forecast. I have complained about the models over the past few weeks and was wondering why they kept going back and forth. The models have enough info over the years that most every pattern should be in the system. I wonder if the mjo getting stuck was one reason the models had the problems. There is always a reason why the models are incorrect but when they go back and forth it seems we need to dig further into other possible reasons. I may be wrong on this but I have not been able to come up with another liable solution.

The model battle right now for the MJO is does it make it to Phase 7 or does it loop back into 6 for another warm pattern repeat? GFS says Phase 7 while the last Euro run I saw had it getting into 7 but looping back into 6 again. Looks like today's update is doing the same thing.

Hey Les and I know the guy you follow has it in the COD until mid-Dec. These models are so hard to follow and I end up going with the Aussies and the reason being is they tend to have the best model over a period of time plus those phases are so key concerning rainfall for them during the spring and early summer. As of Nov 30th still in phase 5 but heading towards 6 and with the current set up it seems reasonable to me.

I agree it can be confusing because different data sources, provide different results. MJO is actually in phase 6 right now if you look at the CPC website so again another difference.

[tron777]

Sunny today but the wind is cranking up. Even though we'll soar into the 60's today, it won't feel like it with winds gusting 20-30 mph this afternoon. A little cooler tomorrow and cooler still for Sat but the wind should be much weaker vs today.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues the all rain train for next week. No cold air to be found with any of these systems.

[tron777]

12Z CMC is still going with snow for most folks next week then rain with a blast of cold air by Day 10. Foreign vs US model battle continues.

[tron777]

12Z UKIE doesn't cover the whole system but it's also weaker / flatter with the system for next week and brings in a swath of light snow to the area on Wed.

[tron777]

Even the GEFS has rain (minus 2 members still giving us a shot). So somebody is going to be folding here pretty soon. Either the GFS is correct or it will be folding to the foreign models. We'll see what the Euro does soon.

[tron777]

Everyone needs to save this awesome site in their bag of tricks.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

It shows you MJO phases based on the ENSO state. So for this winter, we're using the MJO phases for a La Nina. It's in French but easy to figure out. In the first block you have the ENSO state: Nino, Nada (neutral) and Nina. Then across the top in French you have the months of the year. So for MJO phase 7, look at the DIC box (DIC is December) then click on Nina 7. MJO Phase 7 in a La Nina for December. You'll get the following look:

nina_7_dic_ok.png

That shows a gradient pattern so good for overrunning events if you're on the correct side of the baroclinic zone. The biggest take away is a massive -EPO which should stick out like a sore thumb on this composite image. That should get some cold into the Lower 48. How far south is a question because you still have the SE ridge to deal with as well. It's definitely an active pattern for sure.

[tron777]

12Z Euro still showing wintry precip on Wed. I'd call it a mix due to 540 thicknesses being too warm for all snow. 850s are fine. Maybe some sleet or something? Anyway.. point is... GFS and GEFS are the only wound up phased rainy solutions. All other models are the non-phased more wintry solution. It's close for CVG on the Euro I will admit but this far away it doesn't really matter anyway.

[dce]

Everyone needs to save this awesome site in their bag of tricks.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

It shows you MJO phases based on the ENSO state. So for this winter, we're using the MJO phases for a La Nina. It's in French but easy to figure out. In the first block you have the ENSO state: Nino, Nada (neutral) and Nina. Then across the top in French you have the months of the year. So for MJO phase 7, look at the DIC box (DIC is December) then click on Nina 7. MJO Phase 7 in a La Nina for December. You'll get the following look:


nina_7_dic_ok.png


That shows a gradient pattern so good for overrunning events if you're on the correct side of the baroclinic zone. The biggest take away is a massive -EPO which should stick out like a sore thumb on this composite image. That should get some cold into the Lower 48. How far south is a question because you still have the SE ridge to deal with as well. It's definitely an active pattern for sure.

Great site! Thanks for sharing. Oddly enough, here's phase 6 in December for a Nina.

[tron777]

Another day where the foreign models aren't as warm and ugly as the OP GFS. It'll be interesting over the next few days to see which camp folds.