Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:49 pm I see where the NWS at CVG is following the posts on here. They are talking about the best shot for frost may be Tuesday.

LOL! They must have read your post for sure. That's too funny!

CVG reached 85 and both DAY / CMH 87 for the last 80s of 2023!

Les, have a great trip, Bro!

I hit 84 today. Thanks Eric. I appreciate it Bro.

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A lot of areas may have trouble reaching the upper 70s let alone low 80s dependent on the overcast and shower activity.

Doug, this is why you and I went lower for DAY today in the Temp Challenge!

HAPPY 64TH BIRTHDAY DDMEYER004 DAVE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:57 am HAPPY 64TH BIRTHDAY DDMEYER004 DAVE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Happy Birthday Dave. Have a wonderful day and time to start posting lol

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:50 am A lot of areas may have trouble reaching the upper 70s let alone low 80s dependent on the overcast and shower activity.

Doug, this is why you and I went lower for DAY today in the Temp Challenge!

Hey Eric, you are correct and we talked about how the high clouds would keep us below 80 but the lower clouds have moved in earlier so the temp will be even lower. We may not make 75 here at CVG.

Good Morning and you can feel the added moisture in the air. Everything looks on track and 0.25- 0.50 seems like the most likely rainfall. Again some may get a tad more and some a tad less but everyone should get rainfall this go around. Seeing more freeze warnings in the plains and some have dipped into northern Kansas. This tells me its a nice shot of cold air heading this way and 50's both Saturday and Sunday for highs and lows a few degrees either side of 40 but if we can clear the sky and calm down the winds we can get close to 35 and some frost will occur. Those protected valleys away from the strongest winds have the best shot of frost. Next week looks rather nice with temps somewhat below normal and then we wait and see if a bigger system can head this way for late in the week and next weekend. Getting towards the fall rainy season which is usually mid-Oct to early Dec. Will there be severe weather and again way to early to put that out there though I believe the GOM is primed and ready for action so somebody in the eastern half of the country should get some severe weather.

Ooph yesterday was HOT! We had our 4th (certain grades already have it, so my oldest had it twice and not my youngest) pet blessing at my kiddo's school yesterday. Happy our 15-year-old pup made it to all 4.

Looking forward to some more seasonable Fall weather soon.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:35 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:50 am A lot of areas may have trouble reaching the upper 70s let alone low 80s dependent on the overcast and shower activity.

Doug, this is why you and I went lower for DAY today in the Temp Challenge!

Hey Eric, you are correct and we talked about how the high clouds would keep us below 80 but the lower clouds have moved in earlier so the temp will be even lower. We may not make 75 here at CVG.

Hi Tim, Doug predicted 75 and I 74 so yes those numbers could be in jeopardy and even for CVG.

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 12:42 pm Ooph yesterday was HOT! We had our 4th (certain grades already have it, so my oldest had it twice and not my youngest) pet blessing at my kiddo's school yesterday. Happy our 15-year-old pup made it to all 4.

Looking forward to some more seasonable Fall weather soon.

Hi Mollie, speaking of pet blessings, one of my forever favorite songs is The Carpenters' "Bless the Beasts and the Children".

No rain so far but knocking on the door. Most locations to the south and west have been between 0.25 and 0.50 before all is said and done though the further west the more to get higher totals. All the models are showing a nice system for late next that could bring significant rainfall to the area. I want to see how this plays out and will this be a pattern for the upcoming winter. Really looks like an El Nino pattern with the southeast and east getting tons of precip. Yes we will have cutters no doubt but will the southern jet be the main item which probably keeps us cooler but depending where the jet is can also have an area of dry weather. The system next week is one that should provide rain though. Looking further out the models continue to show more troughs in the east which will continue to bring in cooler weather and most likely periods of rainfall and yes some snow possible in the upper mid-west towards Halloween.

Been getting light rain the last few hours here in southern Michigan moderate at times. No wind yet. Still mild. That changes this weekend of course. We are running to town this evening to get supplies for our big brisket cook tomorrow.

My folks and I's 2nd garage sale is planned for next Sat 10/14 but if next weekend's system ends up being a two phase moderate to heavy rain scenario then we'll cancel that sale. Don't see that many hearty folks being out and about for sales in periods of moderate to heavy at times.

Currently 64 here in G'ville.

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Light rain has started and should continue through the evening. Starting to look like a true fall evening though still a little warm for my taste. Friday should have some sun and temps probably nearing 70 before the main surge of colder air arrives and give us 3 days in the 50's with little sunshine until about Tuesday. Frost still a chance Sunday and Monday morning but still believe Tuesday morning still has the best shot as the sky should clear by then and the winds die down. Again not a widespread frost but some locations in the valleys should have some with folks further south and west having a better shot Sunday morning and then folks further north and east the chances get somewhat Monday and mostly likely Tuesday.

Later next week every model has some form of a nice system in the Ohio Valley but those details will become clearer hopefully by early next week.

So far about .71" inches up in Cleveland as of 9pm. Rain starting to lighten up as front passes. We did have some lighting earlier as the first line of storms moved through.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 9:36 pm So far about .71" inches up in Cleveland as of 9pm. Rain starting to lighten up as front passes. We did have some lighting earlier as the first line of storms moved through.

Great to hear from you, Bryan!

CVG reached 74, DAY 75 and CMH 79 for Thurs.

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Good Morning and got 0.31 inches of rainfall. Most amounts were between 0.25-0.50 though some folks further east got less and folks to the west got more. Just a minor change for the weekend and you get these spokes of energy around a big low in southern Canada. Models are trying to throw out a little rain later Sunday night or Monday. Not much moisture but could give us a cloudier night which then would hold back on any frost. Still believe Tuesday morning is the best chance though Saturday night some places especially further south could see some frost and mainly in the low valleys. Next week looks great with a slow rise in temps until late in the week and weekend and we watch and see if a decent storm can bring in heavier rains for maybe Friday the 13th.

.15 in the books here
Fog breaking out. Coffee time!

This years ongoing compared to this last years drought at same time still in worse shape and we know the eventual damaging effects from last year. Don’t be fooled by soil surface moisture , moisture through the root zone is non existent for the majority of the region. Don’t slouch on watering any valued trees or shrubs and don’t tease them when you water, give a soaking and check again in 7-10 days