Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 86 and both DAY and CMH 87 today.

[tron777]

86 at my hood for today.

When does the first freeze occur meaning a low of 32 degrees or colder? ILN has you covered with those stats:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

[tron777]

Good ole 18Z GFS, or the Happy Hour GFS as it is sometimes called. It tracks what's left of Philippe so far West now that our trough pulls it westward and into Maine. I've been seeing it come further and further west over the last 2 days but this is the furthest west solution I've seen yet.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Last day of very warm temps. 86 or 87 is possible. 88 is the record for CVG today so it'll be a close call there. Showers look to move in later Thurs afternoon,. becoming more likely Thurs night into early Fri. Then we should see the dry slot move in. Winds will pick up. Maybe a touch of sun but mostly cloudy skies should cover it. One last shower chance Fri night into early Sat with the upper low clipping the area. Temps... 70s on Thurs, 60s maybe 70 Fri and the 50s this weekend. Lows will eventually drop into the 40s this weekend with the 30s possible Sun and Mon mornings, clouds and wind dependent. Fall looks to stay for a while too. I am declaring summer over after today.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... some of the models are trying to phase in an upper low dropping in from the NW with a low coming up from the Gulf. In other words, the next trough coming in by late next week / next weekend October 13-15th time period, grabs the Gulf low with a lot of moisture and phases it with the low dropping in from the NW on the polar jet to create a big upper low with a lot of rain. Should this play out, we would all see some very much needed rainfall. If they do not phase then all you get is the northern stream moisture which of course will be on the lighter side. Since we are still going to be in a blocking pattern, this scenario shown by the models does carry some weight and needs to be watched. This will be our next weather forecasting challenge once we get past the change to Fall.

Speaking of which, more and more models are showing what's left of Philippe merging with this weekend's incoming trough and it either hits Atlantic Canada or Maine. Pretty wild to see two landfalling tropical systems potentially hitting almost the same area. Wild times ahead guys if the blocking can stay put. I am drooling over this winter should this pattern persist. It may not but if it does... boy oh boy, we're going to have some fun!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and wonderful posts this morning. Blocking as we know makes such a difference and even more so in the fall and winter. If this pattern continues through the winter we will not be bored.I like the system next week and the western GOM is ready to explode with moisture. Sounds like Mother Nature may be trying to balance things out but we never know what she is up too.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and wonderful posts this morning. Blocking as we know makes such a difference and even more so in the fall and winter. If this pattern continues through the winter we will not be bored.I like the system next week and the western GOM is ready to explode with moisture. Sounds like Mother Nature may be trying to balance things out but we never know what she is up too.

Good morning Tim and thanks! Next weekend's system is very interesting. Can you imagine such a set up in January? It would be like January 1994 all over again!

[tpweather]

Another item I love seeing in Alaska is freezing fog and that is reported at Fairbanks this morning.

[tron777]

Another item I love seeing in Alaska is freezing fog and that is reported at Fairbanks this morning.

From NWS Fairbanks

...Snowfall Expected for the Central Interior and Eastern Alaska
Range Thursday night into Friday...

A weather front will move over the Interior from the south
Thursday night into Friday spreading snow across the area.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing and duration
of the snowfall and the front could linger over the area into
Saturday. Looking at 2 to 3 inches of snow over most of the
Interior, including Fairbanks through Friday night. The Eastern
Alaska range could see several inches of snow.

Our time will soon be here Tim!

[tpweather]

Yesterday we saw the models upping rainfall totals a tad. I believe with the slow moving front on Thursday that it makes sense. I am going with 0.25-0.50 for most folks. Like any system a few may be under the total and a few over. Getting a 1/2 inch in early Oct followed by cooler air is very helpful. Trees are going into the dormant stage so less water needed as well. Expect a big outflow of leaves off the trees this weekend which should take care of the many dead ones that happened during the short term drought. I expect next week to look beautiful as more and more trees will be showing color. Going to mow today and get up more leaves and the grass has grown somewhat with the rain we had and warm temps.

[MVWxObserver]

Looking ahead... some of the models are trying to phase in an upper low dropping in from the NW with a low coming up from the Gulf. In other words, the next trough coming in by late next week / next weekend October 13-15th time period, grabs the Gulf low with a lot of moisture and phases it with the low dropping in from the NW on the polar jet to create a big upper low with a lot of rain. Should this play out, we would all see some very much needed rainfall. If they do not phase then all you get is the northern stream moisture which of course will be on the lighter side. Since we are still going to be in a blocking pattern, this scenario shown by the models does carry some weight and needs to be watched. This will be our next weather forecasting challenge once we get past the change to Fall.

Speaking of which, more and more models are showing what's left of Philippe merging with this weekend's incoming trough and it either hits Atlantic Canada or Maine. Pretty wild to see two landfalling tropical systems potentially hitting almost the same area. Wild times ahead guys if the blocking can stay put. I am drooling over this winter should this pattern persist. It may not but if it does... boy oh boy, we're going to have some fun!

I'll be rooting for if any rainfall, on the lighter side for at least up my way as our 2nd garage sale is planned for Sat 10/14.

Hopefully we'll sell the majority of items this Sat!

[tron777]

Yesterday we saw the models upping rainfall totals a tad. I believe with the slow moving front on Thursday that it makes sense. I am going with 0.25-0.50 for most folks. Like any system a few may be under the total and a few over. Getting a 1/2 inch in early Oct followed by cooler air is very helpful. Trees are going into the dormant stage so less water needed as well. Expect a big outflow of leaves off the trees this weekend which should take care of the many dead ones that happened during the short term drought. I expect next week to look beautiful as more and more trees will be showing color. Going to mow today and get up more leaves and the grass has grown somewhat with the rain we had and warm temps.

If we can see a few t-storms with this system, I could definitely see a few spots get that 1/2" plus total. I think most folks will fall into that 0.15 to 0.35" range so basically right in line with your thinking.

[tron777]

Looking ahead... some of the models are trying to phase in an upper low dropping in from the NW with a low coming up from the Gulf. In other words, the next trough coming in by late next week / next weekend October 13-15th time period, grabs the Gulf low with a lot of moisture and phases it with the low dropping in from the NW on the polar jet to create a big upper low with a lot of rain. Should this play out, we would all see some very much needed rainfall. If they do not phase then all you get is the northern stream moisture which of course will be on the lighter side. Since we are still going to be in a blocking pattern, this scenario shown by the models does carry some weight and needs to be watched. This will be our next weather forecasting challenge once we get past the change to Fall.

Speaking of which, more and more models are showing what's left of Philippe merging with this weekend's incoming trough and it either hits Atlantic Canada or Maine. Pretty wild to see two landfalling tropical systems potentially hitting almost the same area. Wild times ahead guys if the blocking can stay put. I am drooling over this winter should this pattern persist. It may not but if it does... boy oh boy, we're going to have some fun!

I'll be rooting for if any rainfall, on the lighter side for at least up my way as our 2nd garage sale is planned for Sat 10/14.

Hopefully we'll sell the majority of items this Sat!

We shall see Bro! We have a lot of time to watch that particular system. If it's a phase then a widespread soaking rainfall for everyone is likely. Otherwise, a period of light rain if we do not see the phase and it won't be a big deal. Either way, a reinforcing shot of cool air will follow.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a nice warm day but some high clouds have moved in faster than I expected and it has slow downed the temp rise. We talk about this all the time about high clouds once we get into fall and lasting through winter. They can hold temps down by a few degrees and that seems to be the case today. So the record of 88 will not be hit and maybe 85 is all we get to later this afternoon. Still going with 0.25-0.50 and really because the front is sort of a slow mover but again some folks a little less and other a tad more and no way getting the exact locations until we have a nowcast on Thursday. The remaining forecast looks good and though most folks and mets are having the highest chances for frost on Sunday and Monday morning I added Tuesday as well especially folks to the east. Of course last week the models were not showing frost but we figured that out on here very early. This time of year with this kind of air mass you just can't say no frost will occur. Does that mean a likely hood and no but seen mets throw out no chance late last week and really I had to laugh.

[tron777]

84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely. I will be heading out of town early tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. I'll have to pack a lot of warm clothes. Leaving in shorts, will be returning in a hoodie and jeans most likely.

[tpweather]

The first large freeze watch is up for western North Dakota Thursday night. That may be a tad later than normal for them this year.

[tron777]

The first large freeze watch is up for western North Dakota Thursday night. That may be a tad later than normal for them this year.

You are correct Tim. Per NWS BIS, typically for Western and Central ND it is the last week of Sept. This is about a week or two late.

https://www.weather.gov/bis/Mediandatefirstfallfreeze

[tpweather]

84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely. I will be heading out of town early tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. I'll have to pack a lot of warm clothes. Leaving in shorts, will be returning in a hoodie and jeans most likely.

Enjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.

[tron777]

84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely. I will be heading out of town early tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. I'll have to pack a lot of warm clothes. Leaving in shorts, will be returning in a hoodie and jeans most likely.

Enjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.

Thanks Tim! It wouldn't surprise me. When I went to Mich to visit my cousin a few years ago around Halloween they had snow flurries on 11/1 when I was driving home.

[tpweather]

84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely. I will be heading out of town early tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. I'll have to pack a lot of warm clothes. Leaving in shorts, will be returning in a hoodie and jeans most likely.

Enjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.

Thanks Tim! It wouldn't surprise me. When I went to Mich to visit my cousin a few years ago around Halloween they had snow flurries on 11/1 when I was driving home.

84 still at 4pm. No doubt the high clouds made a 1-3 degree difference but I was not expecting this many high clouds lol. No way we get close to 80 on Thursday even with a strong wind. I mowed the yard this morning and got up all the leaves and within 1 hour a huge gust of wind knocked down more leaves than I had picked up earlier. May wait til the weekend and have a nice fire pit

[tron777]

I did my leaves for the first time last weekend, and they aren't too thick yet so mine can wait until next week. I'm sure with the wind that we will have coming in with this strong cold front, we'll have a bunch more coming down. Leaf grinding season is just getting underway and it'll be ongoing for me for the next month and a half most likely. On years where the leaves take longer then normal to come down, I have even had to mulch them up in December. With the early leaf drop this year, I hope to be done at my normal time which is mid to late November.

[tpweather]

I did my leaves for the first time last weekend, and they aren't too thick yet so mine can wait until next week. I'm sure with the wind that we will have coming in with this strong cold front, we'll have a bunch more coming down. Leaf grinding season is just getting underway and it'll be ongoing for me for the next month and a half most likely. On years where the leaves take longer then normal to come down, I have even had to mulch them up in December. With the early leaf drop this year, I hope to be done at my normal time which is mid to late November.

In the last decade or so its been mid-November except I have two pair trees in front that sometimes more like Thanksgiving. The trees in the backyard are usually done by Halloween but this year I may be done before heading to Wisconsin. My son said they are just about at peak up there even with the warm temps during the past month.

[tron777]

I did my leaves for the first time last weekend, and they aren't too thick yet so mine can wait until next week. I'm sure with the wind that we will have coming in with this strong cold front, we'll have a bunch more coming down. Leaf grinding season is just getting underway and it'll be ongoing for me for the next month and a half most likely. On years where the leaves take longer then normal to come down, I have even had to mulch them up in December. With the early leaf drop this year, I hope to be done at my normal time which is mid to late November.

In the last decade or so its been mid-November except I have two pair trees in front that sometimes more like Thanksgiving. The trees in the backyard are usually done by Halloween but this year I may be done before heading to Wisconsin. My son said they are just about at peak up there even with the warm temps during the past month.

I have a big oak tree in the side yard and it's always the last to drop. The big maple in the front yard is one of the first and a big black walnut tree in the backyard also drops early. Neighbor has 2 oaks to my SW and I always get their leaves too when we get those strong SW winds. My ash tree is in the middle... doesn't drop as early as the maple but not as late as the oak either. We have a lot of trees as you can see. I expect to see some nice color when I go to S Mich tomorrow.

[tpweather]

I see where the NWS at CVG is following the posts on here. They are talking about the best shot for frost may be Tuesday.