Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

After we begin Rocktober with the 80s, we are finally seeing a shot of cooler air showing up towards the first full weekend of Rocktober which is around the 7-8th. Where we go after that remains to be seen. We still could use some more rainfall in the areas that did not get hammered from this past rain event. So we will continue to see the tropics wind down and then track our first true shot of Fall weather! When do we see our first frost? I don't think it will be with this blast of chilly air coming in here soon but after that? Who knows... stay tuned as usual.

[MVWxObserver]

My folks and I are having a garage sale on Sat Oct 7th and Sat Oct 14th. So hopefully both dry and cool for the 1st one e.g.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Still looking at low to mid 80s next week thru Thurs. Going with rain on Friday with our Fall cold front rolling in with falling temps. Next weekend looks like highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s with some clouds and maybe drizzle, light rain unless the upper low stays to our north then it'll be a little better in terms of sky cover.

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

[winterstormjoe]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

it would be nice to speed up this front a couple days so that my camping trip Thursday - Sunday would be cool but dry! Oh well, rain was always involved in our camping trips this summer, so why stop now! Ugh!

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

it would be nice to speed up this front a couple days so that my camping trip Thursday - Sunday would be cool but dry! Oh well, rain was always involved in our camping trips this summer, so why stop now! Ugh!

No doubt Joe. I'm going out of town next Thurs, coming back Sun, to see my cousin and the fam in Southern Michigan. I'll have to take warm clothes so I don't freeze to death. My body is used to the 70s and 80s we have been getting here not the 50s and 60s for highs that they will likely be seeing up there.

[winterstormjoe]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

it would be nice to speed up this front a couple days so that my camping trip Thursday - Sunday would be cool but dry! Oh well, rain was always involved in our camping trips this summer, so why stop now! Ugh!

No doubt Joe. I'm going out of town next Thurs, coming back Sun, to see my cousin and the fam in Southern Michigan. I'll have to take warm clothes so I don't freeze to death. My body is used to the 70s and 80s we have been getting here not the 50s and 60s for highs that they will likely be seeing up there.

Les, that will be chilly up there. At least it should be dry up there! Once this front clears our area some nice 60's and 40's will be here. This front is still a week away, so some timing changes can still happen. But it does look (GFS) that it may come through here rather wet as a wave may ride the front?

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

it would be nice to speed up this front a couple days so that my camping trip Thursday - Sunday would be cool but dry! Oh well, rain was always involved in our camping trips this summer, so why stop now! Ugh!

No doubt Joe. I'm going out of town next Thurs, coming back Sun, to see my cousin and the fam in Southern Michigan. I'll have to take warm clothes so I don't freeze to death. My body is used to the 70s and 80s we have been getting here not the 50s and 60s for highs that they will likely be seeing up there.

Les, that will be chilly up there. At least it should be dry up there! Once this front clears our area some nice 60's and 40's will be here. This front is still a week away, so some timing changes can still happen. But it does look (GFS) that it may come through here rather wet as a wave may ride the front?

That is absolutely possible Joe and if that is the case, then the front will definitely be slower at moving into and thru the area. 12Z Euro is coming in now and it is showing a slower frontal passage like the CMC with not much rain. So far the wetter GFS and faster idea is an outlier solution. Tons of time however for the models to change so we'll keep an eye on it of course.

[tron777]

The Euro is presenting a plausible solution of two cold fronts. The first on Friday as mentioned with a secondary front Fri night or early Sat which is what truly brings in the cooler air.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and the sun is starting to make an appearance. Forecast looks good and normally once we get into the fall season we see cold fronts that do need to make two runs at us unless the first one is really strong. I agree a front should come through later next week and then you will most likely see a low just circling around in the great lakes area/southern Canada and you get the old pinwheel that brings spokes of light precip and cooler air. Can we end up with some light frost starting around the 8th of Oct and sure and I believe some outlying areas will have a nice shot if we get the clear sky and little wind. Even if conditions on not perfect for frost I can see some upper 30's. Then like many Octobers we warm back up and probably in the low 70's or so and then have another front that pushes us back in the 60's. I do believe late Oct and early Nov could become rather busy and I mean the GOM especially the western gulf has been barely touched and water temps are way above normal. Once we see the jet further south and can hook up with the GOM I believe the second severe season has a greater than normal chance of having a nice severe season.

[tron777]

Tim, I'm not expecting frost unless you get clear skies and light wind. If we see too much clouds / drizzle then we'll stay in the 40s at night. I do agree that we will warm up after this cool shot. 4th Week of Oct looks to have another cool shot of air then we should warm up again to end the month. That is the way the really long term is looking to me. Typical for October as you said. The only down side I see is lack of rainfall and Oct could certainly be another month that comes in below normal. We shall see as usual.

[tpweather]

Les I believe there will most likely be some frost in the rural areas. These places tend to get frost 1--2 weeks earlier than most folks and even if we only see low 40's in the local area many times rural areas can really get quite chilly especially just to the northeast of the local area. At this time it looks like a decent shot so I must throw in the frost possibility. I will go with what the models showed last week and they took out rain chances which was a big mistake and really I don't pay much attention to models when it comes to forecasting frost as they are horrible. Last week the CMC was by far the best in the long term though again that model has more problem in the 1-3 day range which makes no sense. Grades from last week GFS-D Euro=D- CMC- B

[tron777]

Les I believe there will most likely be some frost in the rural areas. These places tend to get frost 1--2 weeks earlier than most folks and even if we only see low 40's in the local area many times rural areas can really get quite chilly especially just to the northeast of the local area. At this time it looks like a decent shot so I must throw in the frost possibility. I will go with what the models showed last week and they took out rain chances which was a big mistake and really I don't pay much attention to models when it comes to forecasting frost as they are horrible. Last week the CMC was by far the best in the long term though again that model has more problem in the 1-3 day range which makes no sense. Grades from last week GFS-D Euro=D- CMC- B

As you well know Tim, the models will continue to get worse the closer we get to winter. They always do or that has been the trends anyway the last several years. The GFS had its phantom historical heat waves this summer and you know it will show some frigid air that won't materialize down the road either. In fact the 0Z GFS from last night had accumulating snow in the 4-6" range at 384 hours for Lower Mich, N IN, etc. I mean come on! That is just plain silly. The Canadian hasn't been too bad as you mentioned with the Euro trying its best but even it has failed especially in the QPF Dept this year. It's tough to trust the models, I get it. They are only to be used as a guide, a forecasting tool anyway so as forecasters we have to compensate for that. Sometimes we do a great job on here in that regard, but other times not. That's just how the weather works. You win some, you lose some.

As far as the frost potential goes, I'm playing the conservative route right now and I think that if there are clouds / wind then the 40s will be just fine. If the upper low stays north of us then your thoughts will most likely be dead on! That is going to be the key in my opinion. The upper low, or little bowling ball on the backside of the system which we will see next weekend. If it stays over Michigan, you've got a shot at frost in outlying locations. If it is further south then nope.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les!!!!!

[tron777]

Great Post Les!!!!!

Thank you Sir! I checked the 12Z GEFS Mean and your coolest temps on that run were for Sun morning and Mon mornings (Oct 8-9th) It shows low 40s for most locations but to your point, if we have clear skies and light wind then upper 30s are possible in rural locations. There is some actual data to support this at this time.

EDIT: The Operational GFS was a degree or two cooler but you know the GFS and its cold bias. It can be just as bad as the warm bias.

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all! Still looking at low to mid 80s next week thru Thurs. Going with rain on Friday with our Fall cold front rolling in with falling temps. Next weekend looks like highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s with some clouds and maybe drizzle, light rain unless the upper low stays to our north then it'll be a little better in terms of sky cover.

Rooting for that upper low to stay north as nothing like trying to hold a garage sale in drizzle / light rain, Bro.

[MVWxObserver]

Good afternoon all! 12Z GFS still has the front / rain chance coming thru on Thursday. I believe that the GFS is too fast and I like the previous Euro idea better of it coming in on Friday. 12Z CMC doesn't show much rain with the front, but it does have my slower idea of it coming in on Friday. We'll see what the 12Z Euro shows later.

it would be nice to speed up this front a couple days so that my camping trip Thursday - Sunday would be cool but dry! Oh well, rain was always involved in our camping trips this summer, so why stop now! Ugh!

Hopefully dry for your camping, Joe and for my folks and my garage sale as we'll be having the 1st of 2 on Sat 10/7!

[MVWxObserver]

The Euro is presenting a plausible solution of two cold fronts. The first on Friday as mentioned with a secondary front Fri night or early Sat which is what truly brings in the cooler air.

Hopefully the first front in that solution on Fri is more moisture packed than the second one for early Sat morning for our Sat garage sale.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Still looking at low to mid 80s next week thru Thurs. Going with rain on Friday with our Fall cold front rolling in with falling temps. Next weekend looks like highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s with some clouds and maybe drizzle, light rain unless the upper low stays to our north then it'll be a little better in terms of sky cover.

Rooting for that upper low to stay north as nothing like trying to hold a garage sale in drizzle / light rain, Bro.

I hear ya Bro! Been there done that!

[tpweather]

Starting to see some decent snows hitting parts of Alaska. South of Fairbanks expecting up a foot in some area come Sunday and Monday. My guess near the north coat by this time next week will stay below 32 for several months. Love seeing this seasonal changes and just gets me in the mood for later this year.

[tron777]

Starting to see some decent snows hitting parts of Alaska. South of Fairbanks expecting up a foot in some area come Sunday and Monday. My guess near the north coat by this time next week will stay below 32 for several months. Love seeing this seasonal changes and just gets me in the mood for later this year.

You know it Tim! Love seeing the changing leaves also.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and weather wise the next 5 months are my favorite by a long shot. Today through Wednesday is easy with warm days and mild nights leading to another nice stretch of weather. Later on Thursday and early Friday rather strong cold front comes through but the energy looks to be rather far north and though we may get some rainfall not expecting much and most totals under 0.25. Later on Friday a reinforcing shot of the cool air and next weekend looks like a true fall few days. Frost and again we need a clear sky and light winds. Though that is possible the low to the north may throw some showers and yes enough wind to keep temps from getting much below 40. This could be where folks southwest of us have a better shot of frost because they are far enough away from the low pressure.

Further down the road and so far looks like a normal October with warm ups before cool to cold fronts come through. One problem is not seeing tons of moisture and why is the question. These fronts are dropping down central Canada but heading more south/southeast instead of south and getting fronts to the GOM is not going to be easy. We need these fronts dropping further south into the south central USA. Saying that late in the month and really in November I could see one of busiest severe second seasons if things turn the way I see them. The GOM and especially the western gulf has not been touch hardly at all this tropical season and the waters are very warm and primed to let lose.

[tron777]

Good Morning and weather wise the next 5 months are my favorite by a long shot. Today through Wednesday is easy with warm days and mild nights leading to another nice stretch of weather. Later on Thursday and early Friday rather strong cold front comes through but the energy looks to be rather far north and though we may get some rainfall not expecting much and most totals under 0.25. Later on Friday a reinforcing shot of the cool air and next weekend looks like a true fall few days. Frost and again we need a clear sky and light winds. Though that is possible the low to the north may throw some showers and yes enough wind to keep temps from getting much below 40. This could be where folks southwest of us have a better shot of frost because they are far enough away from the low pressure.

Further down the road and so far looks like a normal October with warm ups before cool to cold fronts come through. One problem is not seeing tons of moisture and why is the question. These fronts are dropping down central Canada but heading more south/southeast instead of south and getting fronts to the GOM is not going to be easy. We need these fronts dropping further south into the south central USA. Saying that late in the month and really in November I could see one of busiest severe second seasons if things turn the way I see them. The GOM and especially the western gulf has not been touch hardly at all this tropical season and the waters are very warm and primed to let lose.

Wonderful post Tim! Good morning to you!

IMO, even though we have an El Nino, the pattern is almost acting La Nina like with the polar jet being dominant instead of the STJ. That should change the deeper we get into Fall one would think but not yet. We continue to see fronts dropping in from the NW and those are moisture starved as the Gulf remains closed for business. I posted a few days ago that October looks to be below avg in precip and I don't see any reason to change that call at the present time. With the ups and downs in temps, we should be normal to perhaps slightly above normal for the month temp wise. The MJO continues to remain very weak so it is not factoring into the pattern nor will it be a catalyst for change. I continue to wait for the El Nino to charge up the STJ which we should see come November. If we do not see it occur by then, then who knows what may happen later in the winter. For now, whatcha see is whatcha get. Mainly dry weather with a shower chance every once and a while. Mild temps followed by our cool shot, then a warm up, then wash, rinse, and repeat.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and another wonderful post. What has been strange is the warming of the waters off South America just took off in the spring and was bringing in the El Nino quick. The past few weeks that has changed and though the waters still warm cooling has happened and stop the progression of the strength. I wonder if that continue and sort of pushes the warmer waters further west this becomes a weak El Nino instead of what some folks mentioned would be strong. I do agree the STJ is still not active and usually not this time of year but tends to wake up especially as we head into later fall and winter during El Ninos. Many items to follow and may get a few more gray hairs. Wait a second that has already happened.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and another wonderful post. What has been strange is the warming of the waters off South America just took off in the spring and was bringing in the El Nino quick. The past few weeks that has changed and though the waters still warm cooling has happened and stop the progression of the strength. I wonder if that continue and sort of pushes the warmer waters further west this becomes a weak El Nino instead of what some folks mentioned would be strong. I do agree the STJ is still not active and usually not this time of year but tends to wake up especially as we head into later fall and winter during El Ninos. Many items to follow and may get a few more gray hairs. Wait a second that has already happened.

I totally agree Tim that we can throw out a Super El Nino. Perhaps maybe even a strong one. I am not ruling out a moderate event. The cooling could be temporary. The SOI has been negative for days and days and days and the MJO is weak. Both of which are indictive of an El Nino so I think another period of warming is coming later this month. The +IOD also needs to be watched since that screwed us back in 2019 when it was at a record setting in the positive phase. So far, the +IOD is pretty strong, in 2nd place behind 2019 at this point in time. The issue attm is that the Nino is not coupled with the atmosphere so we're not seeing that strong STJ just yet. I expect to see that emerge in November. Like I said, if we do not see these things occur in the next month and a half, then I'll be at a total loss for what to expect this winter. We also cannot forget the very -PDO which in an El Nino is rare to have happen especially one this negative. A lot of competing and conflicting signals going on right now so the models, as usual, will struggle with the longer term. I have no doubt about that.