December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

OP GFS and GEFS truly show the concern. Classic La Nina, Phase 7 -PNA pattern. Shades of 07-08 which means we have to wait but the big one may come late in the season. I keep hearing 84-85 but I don't see any arctic cold waves on the horizon unless you're out West and well north like North of I-80 or I-90.

[Bgoney]

Tim , you should take a day next week and go to the beach, it looks warm even for SE standards

[tpweather]

Tim , you should take a day next week and go to the beach, it looks warm even for SE standards

It looks great. Probably won't have the time but I will get some more yard work done. May get a sun tan though and glad I have plenty of shorts down there.

[tron777]

Tim , you should take a day next week and go to the beach, it looks warm even for SE standards

It looks great. Probably won't have the time but I will get some more yard work done. May get a sun tan though and glad I have plenty of shorts down there.

Parts of South Central TX may see 90 on Christmas Day.

[tron777]

1" of rain for the first half of next week on the Euro. Rain and 50s for 2-3 days. Lovely...

[Bgoney]

One good thing is a large chunk of the extreme drought areas in the west will be wiped out after the next 10 days

[tpweather]

Next week is key to my snowfall in early January. Need to see these storms lay down snow in the northern plains early in the week and central plains later in the week. The cold in western Canada is very cold and my guess by late next week temps in the -20 - -40 range are possible in the northern plains. Combine this with the very warm temps to the south and one of those systems will be much bigger than advertised at the moment. Getting that snow cover is key next week and yes would love to see more blocking but this kind of cold can still make it rather far south and east once it gets moving. When there is no true tropical connection cold can be the bully for awhile especially this kind of cold and of course the time of year is perfect.

[tron777]

I sure hope so Tim. I'm just not feeling it by the looks of the data and MJO being stuck in 7 is going to be a problem. If it wasn't for such a strong forcing of La Nina and a deep -PNA, feeding into it is the -PDO... then Phase 7 of the MJO would lead us into a colder outcome. You can get snow in normal -PNA -NAO patterns but this PNA is so negative. ie the ridge over the Aleutians is so strong then the trough downstream is equally as strong, it forces a SE ridge downstream in response. The -NAO kind of keeps it all locked in place in this case. That's what I'm seeing with the model data. The cold isn't far away but it doesn't really ever barrel it's way in, or have any staying power because the next trough is already crashing into the West coast. Need the PNA to weaken some or the NAO to get stronger.. something needs to switch. From what I am seeing.. by 2nd week of Jan or mid month, the AO and NAO is forecast to weaken. Then we'll really torch and remain very wet. I am seeing above normal precip for the foreseeable future, just see issues getting cold and staying cold for it to pay off.

[tpweather]

Les great post. I believe the La Nina has been on the hyper side the past few weeks and continues and no doubt that needs to start to ease or we could see a long wet and mild winter. I believe it will ease and that is part of the reason I am looking ahead and seeing some changes.

[tron777]

Les great post. I believe the La Nina has been on the hyper side the past few weeks and continues and no doubt that needs to start to ease or we could see a long wet and mild winter. I believe it will ease and that is part of the reason I am looking ahead and seeing some changes.

DT seemed pretty optimistic too but I'm not there yet with my thought process. I'm more on the doom and gloom side still. It's concerning to see the cold come and back off, come and back off, come and back off. MJO is in 7 thank goodness, way better then 6 so we can get chances, but that deep PNA is bad news. A weak one is good, but a strong one like that is death to winter for the East. Don't care how much blocking you've got up top. It's not in the right place on the Pacific side. Need cooperation from the Pacific or it's just not going to happen.

[Bgoney]

Bethel Alaska Airport reported 0.92" (23.4mm) of rain and melted snow on Wed, pushing the December total precipitation total up to 2.87" (72.9mm). This is now the fifth highest December total on record. Climate obs in Bethel since 1923. KNOM



Weather front moving across the northern Bering Sea has brought more snow to the region. Nome Airport total precipitation for December as of 4pm AKST Wednesday is up to 2.22 inches (56.8mm), making this already the highest Dec precip since 1931. KNOM

[tpweather]

Hey Les I listened to DT's video. He seems to seeing somewhat the same things I am looking at. I do usually like his longer term forecasts but specific storms. He did mention though that things could go in the dumper as well and I understand that as well.

[tpweather]

Those gusty south winds really help kick the temps up this afternoon. South wind and no snow on the ground this time of year can raise temps by 30 degrees or so.

[cloudy72]

Heading down to mom's in Huntington WV for Christmas tomorrow - think it may have a shot at 70 on some of the downtown bank thermometers there. LOL

[tron777]

EPS looks favorable for a few days (Days 10-12) then rebuilds the -PNA again after that.

EPS1.png

EPS2.png

[MVWxObserver]

Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Sorry to hear this Eric. Prayers and good thoughts coming your way.

Thank you very much JP

[MVWxObserver]

My dad had a successful outpatient monoclonal antibody treatment infusion today and all went well. The tech who administered his IV said to have plenty of vitamin C and zinc.

[tron777]

No end in sight per the Euro Weeklies:


Dec 27 to Jan 3

EuroWeekly1.jpeg

Jan 4 to Jan 10

EuroWeekly2.jpeg

Jan 11 to Jan 17

EuroWeekly3.jpeg

[cloudy72]

I know its waaaay too early to throw in the towel for January - but geeez this is getting ridiculous (and we have had many ridiculous winters around here lately).

[tron777]

I know its waaaay too early to throw in the towel for January - but geeez this is getting ridiculous (and we have had many ridiculous winters around here lately).

I just can't find very much positive to say for snow lovers. I am probably bringing some folks down with my posts but I can't help it. The reality of it just isn't good if one likes cold and snow.

[tron777]

Happy Festivus to you all and this terrible weather pattern we're in.

But seriously folks... Merry Christmas everyone! I hope 2022 brings us something to track and talk about instead of looking at long range maps that don't seem to change much.

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[tron777]

Merry-Christmas-hd-Wallpapers-Images-Free-Download.jpg

I like this one better! Merry Christmas AV!

[snowbo]

Thanks Les. Merry Christmas to my AV family.

Regarding this crappy pattern, this too shall pass!

[Bgoney]

Back at you Les, and remember, there's always next year. 8 more day's

[cloudy72]

Just like the Brooklyn Dodgers once said - wait til next year LOL

Merry Christmas to all!!