December 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Les if we can get the over the top block that will force the troughs to the south and we are in business. You can tell this is trying to happen and we just need a little luck.

Thru the end of the year, we do need some luck. Got to have that EPO ridge further East before luck becomes less of a factor and more cold gets involved. I think it is coming, but it could hold off until January. That possibility is real. Like I said earlier, the chances for the rest of December are low.

[tron777]

39 degrees and 0.28" now... Too bad it's not 10 degrees colder.

EDIT: 0.25" at CVG

[tron777]

Good morning all... a soggy Saturday ahead as we expected. Temps range from the U30s to around 40 near I-70 to the 50s just S of the Metro. near and S of the river could touch 60 before the front comes thru later on this afternoon, but even those north of the river will see a bump up in temps. Rainfall amounts currently coming in at CVG 0.46" as of 7am and for me, 0.52". Temps will drop this afternoon into the 40s once the front passes and the 30s tonight. Temps will struggle to hit 40 for CVG tomorrow 30s North of the River. Still looing quiet thru about Wed or Thurs of next week before the next front moves in for Christmas.

[tron777]

Models are still struggling with what to do around Christmas and beyond. I do think we see a warm up, perhaps into the 50s but that comes with some rain as well. GFS and CMC is dry around Christmas but have a bigger system coming around the 28th or 29th. Euro has some light rain on Christmas Day with more rain around the 27th. We are seeing a lot of pieces of energy being ejected out of the Western US trough and models just aren't quite sure yet which system to blow up. OP GFS has that bigger system as I mentioned then it gets us into a very cold pattern with some snow to close out the year and a nice arctic air pattern for early January.

GEFS has the same thing we've been talking about with the EPO ridge too far West and a nice -NAO but the -PNA does not allow the cold air to get in here. Yet.. Because for early January it's a coast to coast trough! Haven't seen one of those in a long time. If correct, I could see a gradient pattern and nice baroclinic zone for overrunning events as lows traverse the country from West to East. Cold air is very nearby to work with so some wintry fun would be possible. GEPS agrees and it's a colder solution then even the GEFS (No surprise there). Finally, the EPS is also in agreement with this idea for early January as well. So I like what I'm seeing folks attm anyway once we get past December.


Here's a look at the three major Ensemble Models for early January. Very nice agreement.

GEFS.png

GEPS.png

EPS.png

[tron777]

MJO forecast from the Aussies has improved from the last time I posted it.

AussieMJO.png

[Bgoney]

Yea that was a rough 0z suite for the next 10 days. But gradual improvements after that. Best thing I see this morning is a continued modeling of 850 wind anomalies and the relaxing of easterlies (blues)near the dateline in the coming week(s), should result in the MJO advancing through 7 and sniffing 8 at some point near the new year. Just need to keep those blues away

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[tpweather]

Good Morning and got the grocery shopping out of the way early as usual. Great posts guys and no doubt things are looking up as we head towards the new year. If you get the blocking all the way from Greenland to Alaska troughs will be in the USA. Does this always means colder air and yes but how cold is key. Since we have tons of cold air in Alaska and much of Western and Central Canada no problem in getting some really decent cold to move rather far south. Over the next 2 weeks more of a normal pattern but hopefully that will put down some snow in the northern and hopefully central plains along with the upper midwest. I will be gone from Dec 26th but only staying until the 31st and heading back that morning.

[tron777]

Yea that was a rough 0z suite for the next 10 days. But gradual improvements after that. Best thing I see this morning is a continued modeling of 850 wind anomalies and the relaxing of easterlies (blues)near the dateline in the coming week(s), should result in the MJO advancing through 7 and sniffing 8 at some point near the new year. Just need to keep those blues away


u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

That typhoon in the West Pac only has about 3 days left to live then it's done. It is now expected to recurve to the NE and potentially avoid Vietnam then really weaken off the coast of Hong Kong. Only one other invest and that is in the Indian Ocean and attm, it does not look to develop. So hopefully now, the MJO can keep on moving without further interruption.

[tron777]

Good Morning and got the grocery shopping out of the way early as usual. Great posts guys and no doubt things are looking up as we head towards the new year. If you get the blocking all the way from Greenland to Alaska troughs will be in the USA. Does this always means colder air and yes but how cold is key. Since we have tons of cold air in Alaska and much of Western and Central Canada no problem in getting some really decent cold to move rather far south. Over the next 2 weeks more of a normal pattern but hopefully that will put down some snow in the northern and hopefully central plains along with the upper midwest. I will be gone from Dec 26th but only staying until the 31st and heading back that morning.

Outstanding Tim... bring us back some good luck for the new year, will ya please?

[tron777]

0.53" here now and 0.47" at CVG as we temporarily get a lull S of the River but it won't last as the cold front continues moving in our direction. 54 now imby and will probably go up a few more degrees before temps fall this afternoon.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and got the grocery shopping out of the way early as usual. Great posts guys and no doubt things are looking up as we head towards the new year. If you get the blocking all the way from Greenland to Alaska troughs will be in the USA. Does this always means colder air and yes but how cold is key. Since we have tons of cold air in Alaska and much of Western and Central Canada no problem in getting some really decent cold to move rather far south. Over the next 2 weeks more of a normal pattern but hopefully that will put down some snow in the northern and hopefully central plains along with the upper midwest. I will be gone from Dec 26th but only staying until the 31st and heading back that morning.

Outstanding Tim... bring us back some good luck for the new year, will ya please?

Les I will no doubt bring us some good luck. Sometimes you must wait for good things to happen so I want to see a January will I get out the shovel at least 4 times.

[tron777]

Outstanding Tim... bring us back some good luck for the new year, will ya please?

Les I will no doubt bring us some good luck. Sometimes you must wait for good things to happen so I want to see a January will I get out the shovel at least 4 times.

Awesome! I'll take it Foggy out there this morning. Just came back from running a couple of errands myself. 1/4 to 1/2 mile vis here. 1/4 mile at CVG. Once the front gets closer and we get the rain going again, the fog should mix out. Low pressure is over SE IN just to the West of Cincinnati so once it passes, the front will begin to head our way along with a band of light to mod rain this afternoon.

[MVWxObserver]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS today has not much change to the overall look of the pattern until next year, but boy oh boy what a change it is showing to kick off next year! Finally... the Pacific changes (if correct) to a -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern as arctic air invades the country including us. The trough retrogrades to the west over the Aleutians to NE of Hawaii which pumps up heights along the entire West Coast of North America and into Alaska. Over the top blocking is still present and very strong which means it should have some staying power. A classic Phase 8 MJO look if this is correct. Hopefully in about a weeks time we continue to see this look showing up on guidance to increase confidence more. For now, we watch and wait as usual. Until then mainly rain systems thru the end of the year showing up on this run.

[tron777]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

60 years??? Wow! Congrats to your folks Bro. That is quite an accomplishment.

[MVWxObserver]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

60 years??? Wow! Congrats to your folks Bro. That is quite an accomplishment.

Thank you very much, Les!

They tied the knot in my Mom's hometown of Princeton, IN not far from Evansville in an afternoon church ceremony and were officiated by my Dad's youth group leader pastor from his hometown of Anderson, IN. Mom's childhood pastor passed away about a year or two earlier.

[young pup]

The fog has really increased here. Working around the house and just glanced out the window. Some mist falling at the moment.

[young pup]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

Congrats on your parents for 60 years of marriage. Hopefully a safe trip for all as I hate driving in this kind of weather.

[young pup]

12Z OP GFS today has not much change to the overall look of the pattern until next year, but boy oh boy what a change it is showing to kick off next year! Finally... the Pacific changes (if correct) to a -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern as arctic air invades the country including us. The trough retrogrades to the west over the Aleutians to NE of Hawaii which pumps up heights along the entire West Coast of North America and into Alaska. Over the top blocking is still present and very strong which means it should have some staying power. A classic Phase 8 MJO look if this is correct. Hopefully in about a weeks time we continue to see this look showing up on guidance to increase confidence more. For now, we watch and wait as usual. Until then mainly rain systems thru the end of the year showing up on this run.

Give it 12 hours and it will change.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS today has not much change to the overall look of the pattern until next year, but boy oh boy what a change it is showing to kick off next year! Finally... the Pacific changes (if correct) to a -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern as arctic air invades the country including us. The trough retrogrades to the west over the Aleutians to NE of Hawaii which pumps up heights along the entire West Coast of North America and into Alaska. Over the top blocking is still present and very strong which means it should have some staying power. A classic Phase 8 MJO look if this is correct. Hopefully in about a weeks time we continue to see this look showing up on guidance to increase confidence more. For now, we watch and wait as usual. Until then mainly rain systems thru the end of the year showing up on this run.

Give it 12 hours and it will change.

6 hours then the Happy Hour GFS will be out.

[MVWxObserver]

Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

Congrats on your parents for 60 years of marriage. Hopefully a safe trip for all as I hate driving in this kind of weather.

Thank you very much, JP!

Yes, my nephew is kind of nervous and with the additional weather factor, makes it more tiresome. Esp in the big city bottlenecks like Cincy and LOU on his route.

[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

3 day event total so far 1.25"

[tron777]

12Z GEFS also in agreement. Thru Day 10, we've got the pesky -PNA and SE ridge but after that once we get into January then we've got more of a trough taking over and less in the way of a SE ridge. GEFS does not have a +PNA like the OP does but the heights are higher along the West Coast so probably more neutral which is better then where we're at now. If the weakening of the -PNA is actually real then we'll be in business come January.

[tron777]

DT's write up that he posted last night on the pattern change - Much of it we've been discussing here for a while.