December 2021 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

A little late to the game but the spc has finally moved all levels north and east. Chunk of tri-state in enhanced

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

Some mods are really focused in on either side of the I-71 coridor

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[tron777]

SPC pulled the trigger too and issued a Moderate risk with a 15% TOR hatched area for the region of SE MO, NE AR, Western TN, and Western KY. Incredible to see this in December!

[Bgoney]

SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes

[cloudy72]

12z GFS still going wild with wind gusts tonight with widespread 55-60+ mph gusts!

3km NAM has gusts over 50 for everyone as well!

[tron777]

SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes

I'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.

[cloudy72]

3km NAM

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GFS

gfs-deterministic-cincinnati-gust_swath_mph-9245600.png

Pick your poison I guess!

[tron777]

Current radar has a few showers in our S counties associated with the warm front. Nothing severe with this of course but once the warm front passes, the humidity should really begin to go up and the winds should start to increase some as well as the temp.

[cloudy72]

60 degree dewpoints nosing into western Kentucky currently!

dewpoints.PNG

[Bgoney]

SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes

I'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.

It's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the gun

[tron777]

SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes

I'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.

It's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the gun

Agreed... the I-65 corridor is very concerning. It is close for us down here in the SW area of the Tri-state, there is no doubt. If this system were to speed up a tad more that's really all it would take even for CVG. Lots to watch with this system of course.

[tron777]

SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes

I'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.

It's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the gun

Agreed... the I-65 corridor is very concerning. It is close for us down here in the SW area of the Tri-state, there is no doubt. If this system were to speed up a tad more that's really all it would take even for CVG. Lots to watch with this system of course.

[tron777]

70 degree dews are already up to the MO / AR boarder with 60 degree dews as Mike mentioned as close as Paducah. LOU is around 55. This is crazy!

[tron777]

16Z HRRR is showing scattered cells in the Metro as early as 10pm tonight. They get more widespread as the night goes on too. 60 degree dew points get up to the OH / MI boarder holy crap!

[cloudy72]

I'm sure it's happened before - but anyone know the last time we had 60+ dewpoints at night this late in the year?

[cloudy72]

Winds are cranking down in north Texas - seeing pretty widespread 55-65 mph gusts in the Lubbock area over towards Wichita Falls.

[WxMom]

I’ve missed you guys! Hope all are well!

Just want to say thank you for all you do here every day!

Days like this I am even more grateful! Getting the word out to neighbors and friends who don’t pay much attention to weather.

[tron777]

Hmmm, GFS says , "this severe stuff is fun , let's do it again maybe next Thursday/Friday. "

12Z Euro going this route also. Another strong western Lakes Cutter with a line along a cold front for us.

[Bgoney]

HRRR seems to really like the I-71 corridor.

[tron777]

HRRR seems to really like the I-71 corridor.

No doubt! Just looked at the 18Z run and I get like 3 or 4 different rounds. Sheesh... give it a rest!

[tron777]

15Z SREF for tornado significant ingredients now has a small 90% area in the Mod risk zone. 75% into S. ILL, 60% West KY and 45% SW IN. 30% LOU and still holding at 15% for us.

[tron777]

MD issued in the Mod risk area: TOR watch likely to be issued shortly.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html

[Bgoney]

Uhhh OK,.... for next week GFS painting 40-50 degree temp anomalies in the center of the country . Round two lurks

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[Bgoney]

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