November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Trends on the 12Z models continue to what we saw overnight. Euro continued to be colder in the extended range then the GFS. GFS is at least a week delayed with bringing in the cold, where the Euro gets us cold by next weekend. I have no idea which one is right, but if the MJO forecast that Doug posted is correct (Meaning a weaker signal) then I would have to favor the delayed cold and warmer GFS.

You can really see the issues on the 12Z GEFS. Bgoney pointed this out previously too. GOA trough does not allow for the PNA ridge to become established. It pops up every now and again and we get cold when it develops, but no sustained cold because the GOA trough keeps beating it down. EPS seems to show more ridging over the West so it's a colder look. So again... Euro / EPS are colder and the GFS / GEFS are warmer.

I think something is coming with regards to a pattern change. I just don't know exactly when. Week 2 of Dec or after mid month? We'll have to wait and see.

Good Afternoon Les and I believe watching the weather over the next few days is key for the forecast for next weekend. Not talking about locally but one place I am watching is Alaska and see if the cold air remains or moves towards Canada. Glad the sun came out today but it showed us this morning with a forecast if we are not careful with cold fronts but this one was trucking so I felt better about the sun this afternoon. I am leaning towards the Euro next weekend but that lean is more of a 60/40 lean so not a strong forecast by me but the best I can do at this point.

Good afternoon Tim! It is a very low confidence forecast. Next week looks fairly quiet with a slow warming trend. Can we get 60 by Thurs? Def possible. But then do we turn wet on Friday and then colder by next weekend or is that cold delayed? That's the low confidence part for sure. We can all agree on 1 thing. We need to see changes and improvements in the Pacific pattern for us to turn more favorable for cold and snow.

[tpweather]

Les the big question is when do go from a cold phase 5 to a warm phase 5. Again later into Dec would make more sense. Of course if the mjo is very weak it may not mean anything at all. I believe you are correct about the Aussie site but I know last week they put out a statement that La Nina officially began on 11/23 with their model.

[tron777]

Les the big question is when do go from a cold phase 5 to a warm phase 5. Again later into Dec would make more sense. Of course if the mjo is very weak it may not mean anything at all. I believe you are correct about the Aussie site but I know last week they put out a statement that La Nina officially began on 11/23 with their model.

I agree... I'd have to say 2nd or 3rd week of Dec is a good est of when the phase change from cold to warm would occur (using Phase 5 as an example). Even though the Aussies have just recently declared an official La Nina, it doesn't really matter because the atmospheric effects have already been happening for the last month or two.

[tron777]

12Z EPS for next weekend is in very good agreement of the colder look with the OP Euro. You can see the -WPO ridge is kind of folded over now creating a pseudo -EPO. See that folded over ridge overtop of the GOA trough? That keeps the cold air over Canada and into the Northern US. Combined with a spike in the PNA you get the cold in the East.

EPS.jpeg

[dce]

12Z EPS for next weekend is in very good agreement of the colder look with the OP Euro. You can see the -WPO ridge is kind of folded over now creating a pseudo -EPO. See that folded over ridge overtop of the GOA trough? That keeps the cold air over Canada and into the Northern US. Combined with a spike in the PNA you get the cold in the East.


EPS.jpeg

We will take cold and without blocking. Harder to come by. Look at the lack of blocking on that map. We have been on the chillier side even without the blocking. If blocking shows up at some point it seems as if the atmosphere is leaning toward the colder side of things.

[Bgoney]

To me it's still the same pattern through the first week of Dec that we've talked about . Warmth in the first few days of Dec, then cold front and colder . The map Les showed has a NW flow but the air is modified polar air coming out of a not so cold SW Canada, so the cold shouldn't be that anomalis to normal, but as we talked about a few weeks back , if we stayed in this pattern into Dec. since climo is getting colder we have a slight chance of it paying off

[tron777]

12Z EPS for next weekend is in very good agreement of the colder look with the OP Euro. You can see the -WPO ridge is kind of folded over now creating a pseudo -EPO. See that folded over ridge overtop of the GOA trough? That keeps the cold air over Canada and into the Northern US. Combined with a spike in the PNA you get the cold in the East.


EPS.jpeg

We will take cold and without blocking. Harder to come by. Look at the lack of blocking on that map. We have been on the chillier side even without the blocking. If blocking shows up at some point it seems as if the atmosphere is leaning toward the colder side of things.

The Pacific pattern being right is far more important then the Atlantic side. Sure a -NAO helps with getting systems to phase and slow down as well as keeping a trough locked in, but the Pacific side has to be right to get the cold in here in the first place. You know this of course.

[tron777]

To me it's still the same pattern through the first week of Dec that we've talked about . Warmth in the first few days of Dec, then cold front and colder . The map Les showed has a NW flow but the air is modified polar air coming out of a not so cold SW Canada, so the cold shouldn't be that anomalis to normal, but as we talked about a few weeks back , if we stayed in this pattern into Dec. since climo is getting colder we have a slight chance of it paying off

Exactly... see my latest response to Doug. It all starts in the Pacific for us to be successful. As you have also pointed out numerous times, the GOA trough is a pain in the ass. I'm glad we are getting PNA spikes but it is not sustainable. So with that being said, it's going to boil down to timing. Timing with regards to the PNA spiking positive at the same time shortwaves move down the Rockies and into the Midwest. Everyone knows when it comes to timing how difficult it is to get a snow storm here.

[Bgoney]

Impressive cold still going strong in parts of Alaska:


Western Alaska chill: Thanksgiving Day 2021 in Nome was the second coldest on record, high -2F, low -16F, and is only the 3rd Thanksgiving since 1907 with a high temp below 0F. Bethel had the third coldest since 1923, high -1F, low -12F.

[tron777]

Impressive cold still going strong in parts of Alaska:


Western Alaska chill: Thanksgiving Day 2021 in Nome was the second coldest on record, high -2F, low -16F, and is only the 3rd Thanksgiving since 1907 with a high temp below 0F. Bethel had the third coldest since 1923, high -1F, low -12F.

Yeah. that -72 wind chill at Howard's Pass and King Salmon anomalous cold you posted on, is crazy! But it goes to show you that we have the cold on our side of the globe. We just have to see if and when it can get in here. Models are starting to show a more active STJ in the extended range which is good. Just hope the timing can work out with a northern stream shortwave to deliver the cold air that we need.

[tpweather]

Impressive cold still going strong in parts of Alaska:


Western Alaska chill: Thanksgiving Day 2021 in Nome was the second coldest on record, high -2F, low -16F, and is only the 3rd Thanksgiving since 1907 with a high temp below 0F. Bethel had the third coldest since 1923, high -1F, low -12F.

Yeah. that -72 wind chill at Howard's Pass and King Salmon anomalous cold you posted on, is crazy! But it goes to show you that we have the cold on our side of the globe. We just have to see if and when it can get in here. Models are starting to show a more active STJ in the extended range which is good. Just hope the timing can work out with a northern stream shortwave to deliver the cold air that we need.

Yes I looked at northern Canada and the lowest temps I could fine is around -42 and in northeast Siberia the lowest is -52. So no doubt cold has invaded the NH though it took a little longer to get their in certain areas. Saw forecast of -74 for northeast Siberia in about one week but have no way to say if that is going to be true.

[tron777]

36 today here and at CVG. A quiet week weather wise until next weekend. Pattern looks to turn more active with some shots of cold air too. Low confidence this far out on any one particular system so stay tuned of course.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the clouds held all night and temps never moved. So since last night the Euro went 180 degrees in a different direction and the gfs just sped up the system later next week. Do I know which one is correct and no is the answer. When grading models and if the Euro is correct with its latest run please don't tell me the Euro is better since just 24 hours ago the run was completely different. I have problems with grading models because of runs that are so far apart.

A few things this morning and first in Alaska their are no clear signs yet that the cold is moving out at this point. No doubt it will take a bigger system with milder air working in from the southwest to move the cold out. We will keep watching that plus Europe is getting a true shot of polar air and I tend to watch Europe in the winter time for some clues of what we may be getting later down the road. Many times but not all we see the weather they are receiving in about 10 days or so. Will this be the case with the current set up is one we need to watch.

Still only November 27th and we are very early into the season. Over the years the coldest 90 day period has moved somewhat and back in the 60's and 70's that period was Dec 1-Mar 1. I believe that has shifted over the past 40 years or so and more like Dec-7-Mar 7. I would need to really look at stats to make sure but I believe this would be really close to reality. Why this is happening is well above my grade level but just something I have observed over the years.

How many model runs will be the same from day to day will be fun to watch and so far with the current pattern the gfs has been better but we know each model will do better in certain patterns.

[Bgoney]

No changes from my posts yesterday about the pattern in the upcoming 10 days.

A few things of note to ponder, the MJO continues its turtling ways and many ?s on how it evolves through December. SOI is on another strongly + stretch and the 30/90 averages are proof that the atmosphere and tropics are very much coupled with LaNina even though the 3.4 region numbers are in the weak category atm, I think the SOI numbers may indicate a more moderate effect.

Screenshot_20211127-073320_Chrome.jpg

[tpweather]

No changes from my posts yesterday about the pattern in the upcoming 10 days.

A few things of note to ponder, the MJO continues its turtling ways and many ?s on how it evolves through December. SOI is on another strongly + stretch and the 30/90 averages are proof that the atmosphere and tropics are very much coupled with LaNina even though the 3.4 region numbers are in the weak category atm, I think the SOI numbers may indicate a more moderate effect.

Screenshot_20211127-073320_Chrome.jpg

Great Post and when you see those numbers it tells me the La Nina is ramping up and this imo will increase storminess over the next 2-3 weeks. I believe many folks just look at La Nina and judge it by what the final outcome is whether its low,moderate or strong for the season. I believe you must look at the upticks as well as decreases to see when the weather will become more active. The final outcome with this La Nina may end up weak but their are going to be times that it plays out much stronger at certain times. This is true with and El Nino episode as well. I just believe we tend to get held up on the strength over a winter season instead of the sudden bursts that works like Bgoney mentioned with the atmosphere and tropics.

[tron777]

Good Morning and the clouds held all night and temps never moved. So since last night the Euro went 180 degrees in a different direction and the gfs just sped up the system later next week. Do I know which one is correct and no is the answer. When grading models and if the Euro is correct with its latest run please don't tell me the Euro is better since just 24 hours ago the run was completely different. I have problems with grading models because of runs that are so far apart.

A few things this morning and first in Alaska their are no clear signs yet that the cold is moving out at this point. No doubt it will take a bigger system with milder air working in from the southwest to move the cold out. We will keep watching that plus Europe is getting a true shot of polar air and I tend to watch Europe in the winter time for some clues of what we may be getting later down the road. Many times but not all we see the weather they are receiving in about 10 days or so. Will this be the case with the current set up is one we need to watch.

Still only November 27th and we are very early into the season. Over the years the coldest 90 day period has moved somewhat and back in the 60's and 70's that period was Dec 1-Mar 1. I believe that has shifted over the past 40 years or so and more like Dec-7-Mar 7. I would need to really look at stats to make sure but I believe this would be really close to reality. Why this is happening is well above my grade level but just something I have observed over the years.

How many model runs will be the same from day to day will be fun to watch and so far with the current pattern the gfs has been better but we know each model will do better in certain patterns.

Good morning Tim! I totally agree with you that the seasons have shifted. Winters seem to be starting later. Spring is delayed. Then summer seems to last longer thus delaying fall and winter. Repeat the cycle.

From a modeling standpoint, the Operational models are changing constantly in this volatile pattern that we're in. One run it's cold, next run its warm. Etc. Etc. We need to look at the ensembles more to try and iron out a lot of the model noise we are seeing from the OP runs. One thing that most models agree on is a change to much colder weather beginning next weekend. How long it lasts and do we see any snow out of it remains up in the air at this early juncture.

[tron777]

No changes from my posts yesterday about the pattern in the upcoming 10 days.

A few things of note to ponder, the MJO continues its turtling ways and many ?s on how it evolves through December. SOI is on another strongly + stretch and the 30/90 averages are proof that the atmosphere and tropics are very much coupled with LaNina even though the 3.4 region numbers are in the weak category atm, I think the SOI numbers may indicate a more moderate effect.

Screenshot_20211127-073320_Chrome.jpg

Great Post and when you see those numbers it tells me the La Nina is ramping up and this imo will increase storminess over the next 2-3 weeks. I believe many folks just look at La Nina and judge it by what the final outcome is whether its low,moderate or strong for the season. I believe you must look at the upticks as well as decreases to see when the weather will become more active. The final outcome with this La Nina may end up weak but their are going to be times that it plays out much stronger at certain times. This is true with and El Nino episode as well. I just believe we tend to get held up on the strength over a winter season instead of the sudden bursts that works like Bgoney mentioned with the atmosphere and tropics.

I also agree and the only thing I'd like to add is that just because the numbers say the Nina is weak, the atmospheric response has been more of the moderate variety without a doubt. GOA trough is a huge staple in a La Nina with a -PNA and strong SE ridge. Luckily, we've had some bouts of blocking and a few +PNA spikes to help off set that some. I said it back in the fall that we'd need some blocking to keep the SE ridge at bay and that still holds true in late Nov.

[cincy bud]

Ice pellets at home near Butler/Preble Co line

[tron777]

I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!

Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.

abpwsair.jpg

[tron777]

Ice pellets at home near Butler/Preble Co line

Nice! That explains the bright band over you on radar.

[Bgoney]

I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!

Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.


abpwsair.jpg

I don't think anyone at AV would be surprised if the the PAC continues to be our nemesis going deeper into Dec. We are all too familiar with it. We lose the -NAO/-AO also the first week of Dec. With the current PV fairly strong atm . We probably need the MJO to wake up from its slumber to assist in changing the PAC. As we get deeper into Dec

[young pup]

I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!

Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.


abpwsair.jpg

Out played and out coached. Michigan deserved that win.

Weather wise, even though radar shows precip in the area here. As SGT. Shultz would say, I See Nothing.

[tron777]

I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!

Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.


abpwsair.jpg

I don't think anyone at AV would be surprised if the the PAC continues to be our nemesis going deeper into Dec. We are all too familiar with it. We lose the -NAO/-AO also the first week of Dec. With the current PV fairly strong atm . We probably need the MJO to wake up from its slumber to assist in changing the PAC. As we get deeper into Dec

No it isn't surprising. All Tellies are awful for the first 1-2 weeks of Dec. +EPO -PNA +AO +NAO I really thought that moderately -QBO would have more of a say, but so far no such luck. MJO looking weak too attm. Sigh... we're going to continue to need to wait I'm afraid. Glad Dec has not even started yet lol

[tron777]

I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!

Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.


abpwsair.jpg

Out played and out coached. Michigan deserved that win.

Weather wise, even though radar shows precip in the area here. As SGT. Shultz would say, I See Nothing.

Thank you JP! I wouldn't say out coached because I have never been a huge Harbaugh fan anyway. His brother John, (Ravens head coach of course) IMO does a much better job then his brother Jim does. But maybe this is Michigan's year for a change. I'm watching the Wisc / MN game because we play Wisc next week if they win and Iowa if Wisc loses for the Big Ten championship.

[young pup]

Also,turn on ABC and watch the snow bowl game between Mich. St. and Penn St.