November 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

With Rocktober only having 8 days left, and because of the very active pattern, I am going to go ahead and start the November thread a little early. My reasoning is because of the potential pattern change to colder and hopefully, our first flakes and / or accumulation of the season!

I will get the discussion started off by stating my call again. I think we will turn colder by the second half of November, and that's when I also think that is when the wintry weather could start up as well. As we all know... models can rush these changes, but the closer we get in time... the more I am seeing that the cooler pattern might be coming faster then I expected. For the first week of November, the GEFS / EPS both are indicating changes in the Pacific. I am seeing that persistent Gulf of Alaska trough, retrograding more towards the Aleutians and Bering Sea area, so that forces more of a +PNA pattern (ridge for the West / trough in the East). How long that lasts remains to be seen but for now... the 1st week of November does look to be below avg in temps. I am not seeing any major cold air for snow at all because our cold air source (Canada) isn't very cold yet. However, the airmass will still be below avg for the time of year. The pattern should also remain active thanks to the ongoing developing La Nina as well.

I think this +PNA (which you usually don't see in Nina's, more of an El Nino look actually) is believable. With the MJO going into Phase 1 during the first week of November, this makes sense. How long does this new pattern last remains to be seen but I think confidence is growing that November may actually start off cooler now then what I once thought. If the -PNA keeps going and if this +PNA doesn't show up, then my original call is just fine. We shall know the answer how Nov starts off over the next week but for now... I find it rather interesting that it could start off cooler instead of warmer.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and a getting excited for the winter season. Having a nice little cold shot in early November is fine with me but I really don't want 3 straight weeks of below normal temps only to head above normal in December. Love to see the weather turn milder in the second week of the month and last about 2-3 weeks and then start to see some changes as cold air builds in the northern regions which is what we need to get some really nice cold shots. I do believe the PNA will be more negative this winter season which is common during a La Nina and that is fine if we get some decent blocking. There may be a couple of periods where we get a positive PNA and this can help bring in colder shots. The MJO is key though its not always the driving force but when it is watch out. Love to see this early kick into phase 1. Lets hope this returns quite often this winter and getting a phase 8-2 for half of the winter would be wonderful. The upper lows and one which happens later this week is something we need to watch and the further you get into the season the colder these systems get and as we know around here upper systems tend to work out better for us locally in terms of a decent snow. I will put in my snowfall contest but waiting until later this week to see if their is a chance to see some light snow that first week in November. I believe the La Nina will stay weak and I believe one model is showing moderate but that model is not very good to say the least and most models are on the weak side. Not getting to far ahead but I do believe next spring is going to be a warmer than normal season which is fine in May since the last several May's have been wet and cool.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... awesome post as usual. We'll see how long this lasts, but the last few winters, it seems like what you would expect to happen, the opposite does. ENSO isn't acting like ENSO. We get a Nina in a Nino and vice versa. With the active polar jet this winter and if the block can maintain, we should have some fun. As always, we shall see.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and put up some blinds at my daughter's house and they are never my favorite project.Want to talk about the prospects concerning the weather in Nov. The MJO which we talk about quite a bit looks to be a player and I will try and explain. Probably 10 days ago the mjo was starting to forecast us getting out of the warm phases of 5 and 6 then head into the COD and then somewhere in the phase 8,1,or 2 which are normally the cold phases for us in the winter but not early to mid November when you talk about phase 2 as it tends to be warmer. A few days ago it looked like the mjo was headed into phase 1 which is a colder phase but today we are seeing a more direct line towards phase 2 which is warmer but no crazy warmth like phases 4-6. This may end up true and yes after the big storm late next week expect a cool down and probably have a day or two in the upper 40's or low 50's but then get milder. Does the mjo control everything and by no means and another thing which is even more important is the arctic regions especially on this side of the globe is turning cold quick. Notice some temps of -15 this morning which is finally below normal for them after a very very warm September and much of October. We need this in the first 2-3 weeks of November to continue while having some systems come off the pacific and head towards central and southern Canada. This will help put down snow pack and once we get the correct set up in late November or early December we have a nice highway to move that cold southward without losing to much in the way of cold air. Yes by mid-November I want to see some snows in the northern plains and upper Midwest as well. More to come as we know weather is always changing and we try and get ahead of the models who sometimes is either to early or to late on getting the next pattern correct

[tron777]

A lot of what I see on the Global Ensemble models (GEFS, EPS) are a +PNA with a -AO / -NAO. This is for the 1st week of November or so. How long that lasts remains to be seen. It will mean a period of below normal temps and active weather. I don't see things getting overly cold (for snow) because of the lack of snow cover on our side of the globe in North America. As Tim mentioned perfectly, once we can lay some of that down then our incoming air masses will be colder.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... you mentioned that after this first cold shot we get in November that we would likely moderate? I think your call is dead on after seeing some more data. You can see on the Ensembles here that for the first week of November, the pattern supports us getting colder.

EPS1.png

Then, the cold relaxes and we moderate. However, as you can see by the image below... Canada starts to fill up with cold air which is what we need as we've discussed.

EPS2.png

Now, if the Euro Weeklies are correct, late Nov and early Dec supports the pattern turning cold once again so cold and snow chances would obviously occur. This is the way, way out there fantasy range mind you, but just wanted to post what the actual data looks like.

EuroWeekies1.png

EuroWeeklies2.png

So anyway there you go. This post is directed at all of you, not just Tim. I started the post by mentioning Tim because his long term thoughts I think are fantastic. We start off below normal as expected for Week 1 of Nov, then we moderate. In late Nov, we turn cold again. Let's see how things progress over the next month but that is the current look per the latest model data.

[tpweather]

Hey Les thanks for the kind words. We have such a good team on this forum and so many folks have wonderful ways in forecasting and imo makes it a wonderful place for folks to get their weather info. I do look at models but they are used after I see what is happening not only in our back yard but around the globe. No doubt its a big puzzle and sometimes you get the 10 piece puzzle which is fairly easy to put together but then especially during the winter you get that 1000 piece and you start with the ends and work your way inward. I try and look at patterns and sometimes I get lucky and sometimes my thoughts end up wrong but usually I have reasons behind my predictions.

I just believe that after the first cold shot that the polar regions will start to turn cold in a quick manner and by doing so this means more and likely we will get into a milder period. Does that cold air come down here in late November and from what I see at the moment the answer is yes. We need the build up of cold and snow to the north so it has the highway needed to bring us a cold air mass that can last longer than a few days. Sure you can get cold under a strong upper low and being in the correct spot but that is not long term. I still believe the La Nina will stay on the weak side and if happens to become moderate for a period of time then my forecast will need to be adjusted but at the moment I see no reason to change at all.

Les,again your contribution on this forum is what makes it work and I want to thank you as this has been part of my life for probably getting close to 20 years which is wild and of course Les knows the story where I had never looked at a weather model in my life until I got together with some of these wonderful folks in some of the weather forums we have used over the years. Trevor, thank you for everything as well and my only problem with Trev is he does not post enough for may liking lol.

Thanks again and I am looking forward to some late nights this season and some of my neighbors are amazed that I can spend more than 8 hours a day on the weather but no work involved just a labor of love which then becomes fun except when I give out a bad forecast which will bug me for weeks.

[tron777]

Thank you also Tim for the kind words. We all come here to talk weather and give our thoughts and forecasts. Weather is what unites all of us and brings us all together. For that I am truly thankful. Thanks again to Trev for paying the bills and to Aaron for keeping us up and running. I wish we had more folks posting and maybe if we have a nice winter, we can get some more folks on here posting. AV, our forum has been a part of my life for the past 13 years and if you count Skyeye, which is how a lot of us came to know each other, then yes... you are indeed looking at 20 years. Time sure does fly, doesn't it?

[tron777]

[tron777]

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS run is interesting. Our first system for November is a cold front that brings in a line of showers on Wed the 3rd. Then on the tail end of the front, another wave rides up along it bringing us rain for Fri the 5th and as the upper level low moves into KY, it has enough cold air upstairs for the first flakes of the season by the 1st weekend of Nov. Obviously a model fantasy this far out but this is the first time for the young season that the model has flakes. You have to be right under the upper low for it to work, otherwise it's rain. Again, this is fantasy land for the GFS but what the hell... It's fun talking about it even though the chances of it happening are less then 1 percent.

[tpweather]

Today's 12Z GFS run is interesting. Our first system for November is a cold front that brings in a line of showers on Wed the 3rd. Then on the tail end of the front, another wave rides up along it bringing us rain for Fri the 5th and as the upper level low moves into KY, it has enough cold air upstairs for the first flakes of the season by the 1st weekend of Nov. Obviously a model fantasy this far out but this is the first time for the young season that the model has flakes. You have to be right under the upper low for it to work, otherwise it's rain. Again, this is fantasy land for the GFS but what the hell... It's fun talking about it even though the chances of it happening are less then 1 percent.

Hey Les its always fun to see the runs with possible snow and also the 540 line. Next week imo is a quick shot of cold but that is why I am waiting to the last day for my snowfall prediction. Stranger things have happened and just wanted to see if by this Saturday their is a chance for the snow to be measured lol.

[tpweather]

Les I looked at the gfs extended and it really has a much colder look than I expected for a longer period. I will need to look at the mjo predictions to see if its heading into phase 1 and if the wave is strong. If the gfs is correct then my forecast of a brief cold spell is dead wrong.

[tron777]

Les I looked at the gfs extended and it really has a much colder look than I expected for a longer period. I will need to look at the mjo predictions to see if its heading into phase 1 and if the wave is strong. If the gfs is correct then my forecast of a brief cold spell is dead wrong.

I know... and I've been watching the MJO. It looks weak and not enough to impact the pattern attm. Just my opinion on that. Plus it's the GFS long range which you know past Day 10- it can be completely unreliable.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS run is interesting. Our first system for November is a cold front that brings in a line of showers on Wed the 3rd. Then on the tail end of the front, another wave rides up along it bringing us rain for Fri the 5th and as the upper level low moves into KY, it has enough cold air upstairs for the first flakes of the season by the 1st weekend of Nov. Obviously a model fantasy this far out but this is the first time for the young season that the model has flakes. You have to be right under the upper low for it to work, otherwise it's rain. Again, this is fantasy land for the GFS but what the hell... It's fun talking about it even though the chances of it happening are less then 1 percent.

Hey Les its always fun to see the runs with possible snow and also the 540 line. Next week imo is a quick shot of cold but that is why I am waiting to the last day for my snowfall prediction. Stranger things have happened and just wanted to see if by this Saturday their is a chance for the snow to be measured lol.

I can't blame you. I went with 11/25. I hope not too late with my 1st accumulation prediction or too high with my seasonal call.

[tpweather]

Les I looked at the gfs extended and it really has a much colder look than I expected for a longer period. I will need to look at the mjo predictions to see if its heading into phase 1 and if the wave is strong. If the gfs is correct then my forecast of a brief cold spell is dead wrong.

I know... and I've been watching the MJO. It looks weak and not enough to impact the pattern attm. Just my opinion on that. Plus it's the GFS long range which you know past Day 10- it can be completely unreliable.

The overnight gfs seemed more in line as yes the first week cold but not nearly as cold the second week as a few previous runs showed. Still several days away but I was shocked how cold the gfs was going the second week. Sure it could happen but in my eyes I believe we head back more towards a normal 2nd and 3rd week of November with highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's.

[tron777]

Even seeing highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s (while yes it is below avg), it is something we've seen numerous times before. Getting highs in the 30s... now that's more impressive to me for November.

[tpweather]

Feel much better about today's gfs long term than yesterday. I really was shocked by the output yesterday and most folks on here no I am one to argue with the models quite often but yesterday I was shocked big time. One thing if we already had a build up of cold in Canada then I can see a couple of weeks of well below normal temps but hard to keep the below normal temps when you are not tapping colder air from the north in early November. Lets see what happens forward but I am still going a brief cold shot the 1st week of November and then have temps head towards normal for at least 2 weeks and maybe somewhat longer.

[tron777]

Feel much better about today's gfs long term than yesterday. I really was shocked by the output yesterday and most folks on here no I am one to argue with the models quite often but yesterday I was shocked big time. One thing if we already had a build up of cold in Canada then I can see a couple of weeks of well below normal temps but hard to keep the below normal temps when you are not tapping colder air from the north in early November. Lets see what happens forward but I am still going a brief cold shot the 1st week of November and then have temps head towards normal for at least 2 weeks and maybe somewhat longer.

That's a good call Tim and I cannot argue with it, esp with the MJO signal looking weak.

[Bgoney]

Feel much better about today's gfs long term than yesterday. I really was shocked by the output yesterday and most folks on here no I am one to argue with the models quite often but yesterday I was shocked big time. One thing if we already had a build up of cold in Canada then I can see a couple of weeks of well below normal temps but hard to keep the below normal temps when you are not tapping colder air from the north in early November. Lets see what happens forward but I am still going a brief cold shot the 1st week of November and then have temps head towards normal for at least 2 weeks and maybe somewhat longer.

That's a good call Tim and I cannot argue with it, esp with the MJO signal looking weak.

Hey guys , long time no see.

Sounds good to me. The first week of Nov was forecast cold a while back , and I thought the first half of the month would then average out to near normal, that still has a shot. The end of next week the GOA trough is back and down through just off the west coast , so another blast of moisture for the pac west and rockies. Also a pretty good recovery of the PV is forecast so the AO should relax and go slightly pos mid month or so .

[tron777]

Hey Bgoney... glad you had some time to add into the discussion today. Hopefully you'll be able to do so again soon. So it looks like we're good to go with the week 1 forecast of cooler then avg temps. I think for rain, our first chance in Nov looks to be around Wed of next week. Then a shot of cool air. After that beginning next weekend, models diverge so we'll see if we remain on the cool side or if we moderate as we are kind of expecting on this forum. I still believe more cold and even snow chances are indeed coming in Nov and I like that happening during the second half of the month at some point. As usual, we shall see.

[Bgoney]

Big snowstorm anniversary coming up for much of the country including us. 1966, I remember seeing some old black and white photos that my mom and dad have , with me and siblings in the snow with the abbreviation NOV in one of the corners
What a track, FL panhandle, North along the western apps

November 2-3, 1966- This could be called the "Midwest/Ohio Valley Blizzard of 1966". 9.6" Toledo, 9.5" at Detroit Willow Run, 6 " at Detroit, 8.8 " at Findlay, 9 to 12" in western Ohio, 12.1" Alpena 11.3" Saginaw, 10.5" Ann Arbor, 10.1" Traverse City, 9.0" Lansing, 8.6" Flint, 7.7" Grand Rapids, 6.0" Detroit, 13.1" Louisville, 7.6" Lexington KY, 8.3" Indianapolis, 6.8" Fort Wayne, 5.8" South Bend, 2.4" Evansville, 14.0" Lima, 8.0" Cincinnati, 5.7" Columbus.

1886021928_Nov1966Snowstormtotals.png.4b3be4ab99c31c1362934f159ed31c8f.png

[tron777]

I've read about that storm before Bgoney! What an awesome site to behold I am sure. I was born 10 years later. There was a lot of blocking for that storm. I've seen 500 MB maps before on that system. Would love to see something like that this winter. You never know.

EDIT: I found one! 500 MB vorticity.

1966_nov_02_12z_500_vort.png

[tpweather]

Good Morning and going to spend a little time talking about next week. Should have a cold front move through here probably on Tuesday. Should not be a ton of rainfall but cooler temps behind the front. A system will try and form on the front later Wednesday and Thursday and head towards the App mountains. If this system was a month later then a nice little snow for us but its early November and always tougher to get that decent snow. Saying that there is some cold air trying to work into the system and where will they meet up is the question and this far out no way to predict any snow but just something to look at going into the first week of Nov.

Different topic is how long does the cold air stay next week and for me its a quick in and quick out sort of cold with a nice couple of weeks of milder air. Saying that I can tell you the models are going back and forth and one day you see the mjo heading towards phase 2 and the models go milder and today heading more towards phase 1 which is a colder phase in early November. So I do expect a back and forth with the models over the next several days. The mjo does not look strong but even weak phases can help in deciding the outcome and especially if we still have some blocking the first 10 days or so of the month. More later on this but keeping my forecast the same but I can see an outcome where we stay colder longer.

[Bgoney]

The weekend Pac west storm as expected really did a number on cooling of the Npac waters and now all along the west coast. More troughyness to come later next week and beyond for that area. Effectively pushing "the Blob" , or whats left of the Blob ,to a more west location in the pac, at least for the time being. Is it temporary? How will this effect our late fall pattern? Our winter pattern?
A pattern on the move!!

Screenshot_20211028-110141_Chrome.jpg