March 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

[tron777]

12Z GFS's timing is so bad that CVG may not get a drop of rain on this run for Sat. Obviously, we cannot lock anything in just yet.

[Bgoney]

12Z GFS's timing is so bad that CVG may not get a drop of rain on this run for Sat. Obviously, we cannot lock anything in just yet.

Certainly enough trend agreement to think this will be less impactful than a few days ago. Looking similar to so many systems last year from mid spring through summer

[tron777]

12Z GFS's timing is so bad that CVG may not get a drop of rain on this run for Sat. Obviously, we cannot lock anything in just yet.

Certainly enough trend agreement to think this will be less impactful than a few days ago. Looking similar to so many systems last year from mid spring through summer

NW of Cincy I am def leaning that way. SE counties may indeed have the best chance in our CWA. I still think winds in that 40-50 mph gust range are possible (gradient winds without storms). But that is below severe limits.

[tron777]

The Euro this afternoon has a secondary low along the front 9which most models show) but this low is further west and we get nailed by wind and heavy rains as a result. so I think that is what it is all going to boil down too for us. Do we get hit with the secondary low or it is to our east and we won't have to worry about too much. Stay tuned...

[tron777]

66 as of 5pm at CVG. Going to grill some steaks for supper after work. In fact, the next several days are awesome for grilling, which I will be doing.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and started the grilling season but made it easy with the basic hot dogs,brats and metts. So nice to grill once again but I can tell the gas is low from last year but always fill up once its empty. Back to the weather and some beautiful days the remainder of the week with only a slight chance of a shower Thursday. Late Friday and Saturday its just too early to see how this plays out and again somebody in the Ohio Valley should get over 2 inches but still need to narrow that down. Still going with and inch at the moment and again like we have talked about busts will happen and it can be high or low. The GOM is wide open for business and that is not the problem so if we can get several hours of rain that should get us going on totals. How soon does the 1st system occlude will determine to how much we get late Friday and then where does the front end up on Saturday and where does it stall will determine how much rain we get that day.

Going to enjoy the warmer weather and of course with the warmer weather my allergies have already started acting up.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 66 and CMH 65 on Mon.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3294.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Still not seeing any lengthy unusual cold spells for March

IMG_3295.jpeg

[tpweather]

Good Morning and the models are trying to come together for the Friday and Saturday outlook. Sticking with the 1 inch amount at the moment and if we start to see a day or two where the models are agreeing with each other especially where the front stalls Saturday then we can make changes. Still some heavier amounts will fall in the Ohio Valley but still 4 days away to pinpoint the exact area that gets the heavier rainfall. Beyond that we cool down as expected this time of year but the second half of March looks very busy in terms of rainfall as the busy pattern that starts this Friday leads us into a very busy period. Taking advantage of the dry and warm air this week and getting 4-5 days of this type of weather in mid-March is always a bonus.

[tpweather]

I agree Bgoney and sure we can get a day or two behind a front that brings some cold air in but mid-late March looks more normal to me in terms of temps. Sure the upper mid-west and northern plains still have chances for some decent snows but locally nothing at the moment that brings any accumulating snows to our area. With this pattern you need an upper low with tons of cold air to flow on top of us to have any chance of more snow. Can that still happen and sure but as of today no signs of that happening. Hopefully we can get about 1 inch a week the remainder of March would be perfect but we know that is not how this works usually

[tron777]

Good morning and no changes to my forecast. For Fri night thru Sat night, I expect a band of showers with the warm front late Fri night into Sat morning. A break, then the cold front comes in Sat evening into the overnight. Best chance of severe wx as well as heaviest rains will be SE of I-71 in our SE counties IMO as that trend is continuing to hold on the modeling. It will be windy this weekend too. Gusts to 50 mph possible on Sat and 30-35 mph on Sunday behind the front is my call. We could get a wind advisory just for non t-storm winds alone on Sat, that would not shock me. We should remain below advisory criteria on Sunday. For rainfall amounts, I am changing that to 0.20 - 0.40" NW of I-71 and 1-2" for SE counties.

[tron777]

For our SE counties for today - Elevated fire risk from the boys:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
823 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

KYZ096>100-OHZ056-064-065-073-074-078>082-088-112300-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Licking-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
Including the cities of Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville,
Mount Olivet, Maysville, Tollesboro, Head Of Grassy, Camp Dix,
Vanceburg, Newark, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington,
Chillicothe, Logan, Milford, Summerside, Mount Carmel,
Mount Repose, Withamsville, Mulberry, Day Heights, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Ripley, Aberdeen, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union,
Manchester, Peebles, Seaman, Winchester, Waverly, Pike Lake,
Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
823 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Dry conditions combined with relative humidity values ranging from
20 to 25 percent and southwest winds gusting to 20 MPH will result
in an elevated fire danger across the area this afternoon and
early evening.

Any ignition source may quickly get out of control given the
conditions listed above. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

[tron777]

Still not seeing any lengthy unusual cold spells for March

I am now in agreement. Great call early on by the way! It really looked like we'd have something around the 20th but now, I've seen enough ensembles and OP models to know that winter is truly over now. Of course, a few below normal days will be mixed in. They always are. But now, it is even is looking tough to get a fluke snow.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

[tpweather]

Concerning snow and yes there is still a chance really until mid-April. Models will play towards the mean more than 10 days out so no way they would be able to see if an upper low and where its located. Still plenty of cold to grab hold of in Canada and that is why I have not thrown in the towel on snow. Does not mean accumulating snow but snow showers or a brief period with an upper low is still possible.

[tron777]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

I may have to adjust again for sure, but I feel good about what I posted right now. I am more concerned about the wind then I am severe t-storms at this time. We will need to watch dew points when we get closer to see how the moisture return is from the Gulf. ATM, we are bone dry that is for sure. Thus, temps will overachieve. Mid 70s probably for today.

[tron777]

Concerning snow and yes there is still a chance really until mid-April. Models will play towards the mean more than 10 days out so no way they would be able to see if an upper low and where its located. Still plenty of cold to grab hold of in Canada and that is why I have not thrown in the towel on snow. Does not mean accumulating snow but snow showers or a brief period with an upper low is still possible.

That was the set up that I was watching for around the 20th. It currently is dead unless it comes back or something.

[tron777]

65 as of 12pm at CVG so we are well ahead of yesterday's reading at this time.

[tron777]

My forecast is good per today's 12Z GFS. The heaviest action still over SE counties Sat evening / night.

[dce]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

I may have to adjust again for sure, but I feel good about what I posted right now. I am more concerned about the wind then I am severe t-storms at this time. We will need to watch dew points when we get closer to see how the moisture return is from the Gulf. ATM, we are bone dry that is for sure. Thus, temps will overachieve. Mid 70s probably for today.

It's really strange this month. The MJO phases would tell us that this should be a colder than average March. However, the real world weather isn't having any of that.

[tron777]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

I may have to adjust again for sure, but I feel good about what I posted right now. I am more concerned about the wind then I am severe t-storms at this time. We will need to watch dew points when we get closer to see how the moisture return is from the Gulf. ATM, we are bone dry that is for sure. Thus, temps will overachieve. Mid 70s probably for today.

It's really strange this month. The MJO phases would tell us that this should be a colder than average March. However, the real world weather isn't having any of that.

A bad Pacific pattern is trumping a favorable NAO. When you have a positive EPO and a strong -PNA, a hostile Pacific is the reason. That is why the threat around the 20th I was watching has pretty much vanished.

[dce]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

I may have to adjust again for sure, but I feel good about what I posted right now. I am more concerned about the wind then I am severe t-storms at this time. We will need to watch dew points when we get closer to see how the moisture return is from the Gulf. ATM, we are bone dry that is for sure. Thus, temps will overachieve. Mid 70s probably for today.

It's really strange this month. The MJO phases would tell us that this should be a colder than average March. However, the real world weather isn't having any of that.

A bad Pacific pattern is trumping a favorable NAO. When you have a positive EPO and a strong -PNA, a hostile Pacific is the reason. That is why the threat around the 20th I was watching has pretty much vanished.

Phases 1 and 2 of the MJO would usually produce the opposite of what we are seeing in the Pacific. Oh well, honestly, I'm ready for warm weather to stay. Give me 70's and 80's everyday with some thunderstorms mixed in.

[tron777]

Hey Les and agree about the winds which is probably the biggest story but its March and wind is very common especially when you have a nice low to the west and warm air flowing northward. I still have 1 inch area wide as some models did come back west overnight. My guess maybe by Thursday we have a more unified call of rainfall. Tons of moisture and that is not the problem but how far east does the rain go late Friday and then where does that front stall and the next low rides along the front. No doubt their could be somebody in the Ohio Valley that gets missed for the most part with both systems and could end up with 1/4 of an inch but that is how its playing out at the moment.

I may have to adjust again for sure, but I feel good about what I posted right now. I am more concerned about the wind then I am severe t-storms at this time. We will need to watch dew points when we get closer to see how the moisture return is from the Gulf. ATM, we are bone dry that is for sure. Thus, temps will overachieve. Mid 70s probably for today.

It's really strange this month. The MJO phases would tell us that this should be a colder than average March. However, the real world weather isn't having any of that.

A bad Pacific pattern is trumping a favorable NAO. When you have a positive EPO and a strong -PNA, a hostile Pacific is the reason. That is why the threat around the 20th I was watching has pretty much vanished.

Phases 1 and 2 of the MJO would usually produce the opposite of what we are seeing in the Pacific. Oh well, honestly, I'm ready for warm weather to stay. Give me 70's and 80's everyday with some thunderstorms mixed in.

We'll have some chilly days mixed in, we always do, but its pretty much over until next season for anything meaningful. 70 already at CVG wow!