March 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Welcome to our first month of Met Spring! We can see 80s, 20s, severe t-storms and blizzards all in this month. Winter wants to hang on and spring wants to dig in. For this year, we begin with t-storms next week, a cool shot of air, some snow? then spring arrives thereafter by mid month. Discuss!

[Bgoney]

A Fairly typical month of up and down weather, looking deep into March. Don’t see any long lasting cold spells for the first 3weeks. Doesn’t mean we won’t see any chances for winter type weather, though luck will have to be on our side as usual

[tron777]

A Fairly typical month of up and down weather, looking deep into March. Don’t see any long lasting cold spells for the first 3weeks. Doesn’t mean we won’t see any chances for winter type weather, though luck will have to be on our side as usual

I am honing in on the 7-8th with maybe another chance around the 10-12th. That seems to be the best window for wintry weather that I foresee right now. Lots of up's and down's as you said the first half of the month. I think severe wx becomes a thing for the second half.

[tron777]

Right now the timing of our 1st storm system in March is with the warm front Tues night with heavy rain possible then the cold front Wed morning so falling temps maybe ending as flakes on the backside. I am thinking due to poor timing, severe wx chance is low. Better chances to the SW.

[tron777]

This outlook from the SPC for severe wx is for the Tues / Wed storm next week. I would expect the northward extent of the 15% area to keep coming north some in the coming days. Not sure if it'll include us or not. This system does need to be watched.

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[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good Morning and here comes spring but not this weekend. March is always one of the wildest months in terms of temps and sometimes precip types and severe chances. That looks like the first full week of March with rain,maybe some winter weather but nothing that should cause many problems and yes severe weather is on the table. Should keep us busy the whole month as we see several systems this month. Been very busy but things have calmed down and I can get a handle of what the models are showing this 1st day of met spring

[airwolf76]

IMO it looks like its over for winter. the first 2 weeks looked promising just a week ago but now there is nothing. i think we will see it up and down in temps for a while but i think the snow is done. another disappointing winter for me. pretty cold but only half the average snowfall.

[tpweather]

We had a very nice winter in terms of snow so no complaining here. March always throws in a few surprises so still believe at least 2 chances to see some snow and maybe 3 with a few snow showers or flurries today but not counting that in possible 3 events but with the storm mid-week could see some decent snow showers once the cold enters the departing storm. Normally if during the day the snow will have problems sticking and even at night with surface temps above 32 by then its not easy. Will watch for the tricky upper system we seem to get this time of year but its not how far north you live but having the core of the low right on top of you with its own cold air. Models will not show that and tend to pick up on that kind of feature just a few days ahead of the system plus models have a hard time in finding exactly where the that low will track with the cold core.

[tron777]

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[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 55, DAY 48 and CMH 51 on Sat.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and another cold day but the sun felt nice. Storminess starting Tuesday through Thursday as we see a nice dose of rain and some very strong winds and yes even some severe weather is possible plus some snow showers at the end. Then we have another system next weekend which looks like rain but will watch the path of this system closely. My son is expecting a good amount of snow late Tuesday and Wednesday and with the heavy nature of the snow they expect some trees to fall and power outages. They are expecting over 1 inch total precip and though starting out as rain it will switch to snow for his area quickly and my guess somewhere in the 6-8 inch range. Of course up there snow very seldom cancels school but the extreme cold will and that has happened a few times this season.

Good thing for us a nice warm up the following week and does that mean spring is here and no because it will only be getting towards mid-March but its would be nice after and rather long winter.

[Bgoney]

Euro showing the big storms down south robbing deep moisture into our area for Tuesday /wed . We get rain but not the higher amounts shown earlier

[tpweather]

Euro showing the big storms down south robbing deep moisture into our area for Tuesday /wed . We get rain but not the higher amounts shown earlier

I agree and going with around 1/2 inch or so. Looks like we are in between the heavier amounts to the south and to the northwest with the snowstorm and maybe we hear the word blizzard up there before all is said and done. March is normally a wild month in terms of snow in the upper mid-west and northern plains and it looks they are starting out strong

[tpweather]

With the NAO taking a big drop towards neutral the system is slowing down so that is why the longer period of possible precip from Tuesday-Thursday. NAO is such a key to big storms in the eastern half of the USA

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 36 and both DAY / CMH 34 today.

[Bgoney]

No changes overnight, the big storms to our south are keeping the higher qpf away. The big show for us as Tim mentioned is the high winds for Tuesday with showers

[tron777]

I wonder if we may need a wind advisory to be issued for Wednesday. Gusts in that 40-50 mph range look to be possible.

[Bgoney]

I wonder if we may need a wind advisory to be issued for Wednesday. Gusts in that 40-50 mph range look to be possible.

I’d hav to say that’s likely with what is showing up on modeling

[tron777]

Sorry all for the lack of posts over the weekend, I was very busy! Worked on cutting up and grinding 100 pounds of meat to make brats, hot dogs, and breakfast sausage. I was at my Brother's in Milford. The kids had a lot of sports games too going on as usual. But I'm back so let's talk about this week. I think the severe threat is low well to our SW, say over West KY / TN and points southward from there. We could certainly see some t-storms with this system but I do think any storms will stay below severe limits for our area.

Timing wise, I think the warm front starts to bring in some showers by late in the day tomorrow with widespread showers overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. A short break then the cold front will more showers / storms, strong winds and falling temps. Finally, Wed overnight, we may end as some snow with no issues or accumulation expected. For rainfall amounts, a half inch or so should occur. If some t-storms can get involved, maybe an inch for a few isolated locations. For wind, as I mentioned above... Wed looks to be the worst for wind versus Tuesday as the cold front and upper trough swing thru.

Looking ahead.... a cold Thurs then we are watching to see if a southern slider can produce some rain and / or snow this weekend or are we just seasonal and dry if no phasing occurs. The extended range looks active. We warm up, get a cold front, then cool down. wash, rinse, and repeat that pattern. A typical spring look with up's and downs in temps.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Les your forecast looks good. I do expect a wind advisory to be issued but its March and we tend to get a few each year. Lucky the rainfall is not to heavy and that is always a good thing early in the spring season. Once we get into the true growing season then the vegetation can help with heavier rains. Will be watching the forecast for my son and no doubt a winter storm warning will be issued but can he get the blizzard warning issued and at the moment probably 50/50 for that to occur.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Nothing too out of the ordinary this week temp wise for us and honestly precip wise, it doesn't look too bad either. The wind is probably the bigger weather story for Tues and esp Wed as has been mentioned already on the forum.

[tpweather]

Les I agree about the wind and 1/2 inch is a good call but like you mentioned if you get under a heavier thundershower some isolated areas could get 1 inch. The snow showers will be more for show and should not cause to many problems. Then the weekend system and is one to be watched as these are tricky systems especially in the first half of March. One reason is precip totals are on the rise during the spring and if you can get a few pieces of energy to merge they can form a decent storm that can inject enough cold air where you have the chance of getting some winter precip. This is usually a rain/snow type of event and the frz/rain and sleet are usually not involved.

[tron777]

Les I agree about the wind and 1/2 inch is a good call but like you mentioned if you get under a heavier thundershower some isolated areas could get 1 inch. The snow showers will be more for show and should not cause to many problems. Then the weekend system and is one to be watched as these are tricky systems especially in the first half of March. One reason is precip totals are on the rise during the spring and if you can get a few pieces of energy to merge they can form a decent storm that can inject enough cold air where you have the chance of getting some winter precip. This is usually a rain/snow type of event and the frz/rain and sleet are usually not involved.

I think we're on the same page Tim. Forecast confidence IMO is high for Tues / Wed system but for the weekend, my confidence is certainly low. I just don't know yet how much interaction we'll see between the northern and southern jets. The 12Z GFS is certainly interesting as the northern piece comes in first on this run with some light rain, which drags the front south so the southern low, which is much stronger, actually gives us a thumping of wet snow early Sun morning. One to watch as this maybe our last shot at decent snow for the season.

[tpweather]

Les I agree about the wind and 1/2 inch is a good call but like you mentioned if you get under a heavier thundershower some isolated areas could get 1 inch. The snow showers will be more for show and should not cause to many problems. Then the weekend system and is one to be watched as these are tricky systems especially in the first half of March. One reason is precip totals are on the rise during the spring and if you can get a few pieces of energy to merge they can form a decent storm that can inject enough cold air where you have the chance of getting some winter precip. This is usually a rain/snow type of event and the frz/rain and sleet are usually not involved.

I think we're on the same page Tim. Forecast confidence IMO is high for Tues / Wed system but for the weekend, my confidence is certainly low. I just don't know yet how much interaction we'll see between the northern and southern jets. The 12Z GFS is certainly interesting as the northern piece comes in first on this run with some light rain, which drags the front south so the southern low, which is much stronger, actually gives us a thumping of wet snow early Sun morning. One to watch as this maybe our last shot at decent snow for the season.

These systems are tricky Les and I know the CMC had been on the colder side with chances of snow while the GFS as usual will have a different outlook every run and the Euro was all rain I believe. Again first half of March is like the last half of November and some years nothing to talk about and other years it can produce a system that can bring some winter weather. This year with the amount of snow cover in Canada and also adding some to the our north and west the chances are a little higher than normal imo.