November 2024 Weather Discussion

[dce]

2.5 inches so far at Indy. They will get 3 inches at least when this is done. More heavier bands still to move through there.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH got to 41 and DAY 38 in the predawn today.

[dce]

As of 7pm 1.4 at KDAY and 1.5 at CVG.

[Woolyworm]

From the woodpile. Grandma Wooly and dog Kiwi are dancing.

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[tron777]

Good morning all! Per the overnight climate report, the event total was 2" for CVG. Good way to start our season! Our next system brings rain Mon afternoon into Mon night. Then late Wed and definitely on Thanksgiving itself, looks to be our next rain maker. I do think some flakes at the end on Black Friday are possible. After that, we turn much colder and then we will be tracking more wintry type systems to kick off December!

[Bgoney]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

[tron777]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

[tron777]

Total QPF at CVG for yesterday's event was 0.22" so the models did a nice job with our first event of the season!

[Bgoney]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

A few more days averaging above normal starting this weekend but after thanksgiving should start a period of at least 10 days where that stretch will average below normal

[tron777]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

A few more days averaging above normal starting this weekend but after thanksgiving should start a period of at least 10 days where that stretch will average below normal

Definitely agree, The first 1-2 weeks of December is looking chilly along with a clipper pattern to boot. Gotta like the looks of that! It is a very stable pattern too when you have monster blocking highs over AK and Greenland.

[dce]

FWIW This is phase 5 MJO in December with a neutral Enso if indeed the MJO does continue on in it's progression.

[Bgoney]

FWIW This is phase 5 MJO in December with a neutral Enso if indeed the MJO does continue on in it's progression.

I think that’s pretty much what the 500mb extended forecast modeling is headed towards

[tron777]

[tron777]

Early Thanksgiving thoughts....

My early thoughts for the big day is for rain ending as some flakes for Black Friday. Could this change? Of course! What we need to watch is the first cold front that comes thru Mon night of next week. How big is the cold push behind that system? How deep is that trough? How strong is the Canadian high and where is it located? This will be the foundation that will be laid for the Thanksgiving storm to track upon.

The new 12Z GFS that is coming in now shows a weak non phased system so cold and dry is the end result. We will see model fluctuations until we see where the front gets laid down early next week. 12Z CMC is rain for us, snow for I-70 Crew. 0Z Euro was rain, and the 6Z Euro AI was cold and dry. Pick your model, pick your poison right now.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 43, DAY 44 and CMH 45 today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and made it back from two weddings and 4 days of golf in Hilton Head. Paid very little attention to the weather while gone though I here from a little birdie we had a touch of snow lol. This season is already more exciting than last year lol. Will have some time today to look over the upcoming pattern and hope it remains busy. Felt even a little cold when I got home late yesterday.

[tron777]

Good morning all and welcome back Tim! I will be leaving for my niece Harper's play later today and will be back well after dark tonight. Will be grinding leaves tomorrow and watching My Lions 1pm on Fox!

Back to the weather now and all models agree late Mon into Mon night is our next front and with it a chance for rain showers. Then, if you believe the GFS, CMC solutions for Thanksgiving, some rain for KY but cold and dry North of Cincinnati. Euro and EPS are stronger and much further north with the low bringing mixed precip and or snow for northern posters and all rain for Cincy on south. GEFS is in between. All areas end as flakes on Friday with highs in the 30s.

After that, we get into a colder pattern for early December and I think one that features clippers diving in from Canada. These are usually light snow makers but they keep reinforcing the cold air. If you can get one to dig more enough south to scoop up some Gulf moisture, then you can get a little more out of one. The first 7-10 days of December, IMO, this will be the pattern. Areas to get the snow to be determined.

[tron777]

December 1989 is weighted 3X in the 8-14 day analogs from the CPC. 1976 is on there twice too! Lots of cold air and some potential as well showing up for the next 2 weeks at least. In fact, all 3 Global Ensembles keep the -WPO / -EPO / +PNA / -AO / -NAO pattern going thru Day 15 with cross polar flow the entire time. Timing of individual short waves will vary, but you have got to like the pattern at 500 MB. We'll just need some luck as usual to make it happen!

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[tron777]

MJO has slowed way down, still in Phase 2 per the Aussies getting ready for Phase 3. The expectations from the models is that we get into the warmer phases, but at a weak amplitude. So it may not influence the pattern if it's correct. I expect a warm up come mid December but we'll see. That could change. What we are seeing is a very stable pattern with big blocks over the Eastern Bering Sea, AK, and Western Canada and also over Greenland. This allows cold air to drain into Canada from Siberia and with a ridge on the West Coast of North America, the cold comes into the East. We also have an active jet stream so I do not except dry and cold. I expect it to be cold and active. Ice and snow amounts TBD. I am sure we'll see rain too, we always do lol

La Nina will not be influencing the pattern as once thought. I think it is a cold neutral winter, not even a weak Nina. This is a good thing causing the PDO to rise. This is allowing other things to rule the pattern which in this case is a good thing!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Les it looks mighty busy. November is playing out like we thought and the only added bonus has been the snow early in the season. Yes we have a neutral pna which is good especially with how the other tellies are playing out. This still allows energy to come into the pacific but also with a -nao the milder air from these systems can only go so far north and east. This really is a nice clipper pattern starting next weekend but before that we have a few other items to talk about. One system in here later Monday and Tuesday and that is all rain but looks light and probably in the .25-.5 range and no severe weather. Then a somewhat bigger system for us later Wednesday and Thanksgiving. This is a system we see often at the end of November and is usually a rain to snow kind of event. Still a few days out and not ready to make any kind of forecast. The good thing is after that system the coldest air of the season is headed this way. How long will this pattern last and yes sooner or later a return to milder air as the arctic regions will need to reload but no time table at this moment. Will this current pattern be one all winter long and not sure but I do believe we see it several times and this winter should be nothing like last year. Still expect before all is said and done we should average a tad above normal for temps and above normal for rainfall which some of that should be in the form of snow.

[tpweather]

Just getting caught up weather around the world and how is the arctic doing this season. No doubt a late start to cold and snow though still plenty cold. If they were near the normal cold this time of year with this pattern we would get really really cold but again this imo helps in keeping the jet stream close enough to give us precip chances. The coldest in OCT and NOV in those regions has been in the Norway,Sweden region. Greenland has been cold most of the year. Alaska has some cold back and forth but nothing extreme by any means.

One item that I look at to keep us with better chances of cold and snow to stay around if snow pack in the northern plains and upper mid-west. Yes there is some snow on the ground but not much and would to see this increase over the next few weeks.

[Bgoney]

We won’t have the advantage of upper temps being well below freezing for thanksgiving like we had for last Thursday snow. With surface temps well above freezing for I70 south , a rain (cvgland)with Rain and some mixing near I70 is at least for the moment, the more likely outcome. Need to see the colder air off to the NW to speed up in future model runs

[tpweather]

We won’t have the advantage of upper temps being well below freezing for thanksgiving like we had for last Thursday snow. With surface temps well above freezing for I70 south , a rain (cvgland)with Rain and some mixing near I70 is at least for the moment, the more likely outcome. Need to see the colder air off to the NW to speed up in future model runs

Hey Bgoney and I agree with your post. Yes the ground temps still warm though nothing new for the last few days of November. How strong is the system later in the week will also determine precip type and of course the normal path of the low. At this moment it just looks like your normal rain to snow type event but how quickly will the cold air come in before precip leaves. I do like the the period after this late week system in terms of some decent cold and some clippers to be involved.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and had more time to sort of look at the Thanksgiving Day storm. I try and watch the energy that is off the west coast and this looks a bit stronger than models are showing imo. Does this mean a better shot of snow and locally I would say no at this time. Just believe the cold air will arrive a tad to late. The cold behind this system is arctic air and one thing I believe is the lake effect snows are going to be rather intense but how long this lasts is still up in the air. So I do believe a few clippers or even some snow off the lakes could make it down here locally by next weekend and clippers the 1st week of Dec.

The mjo looks to travel into phase 5 which with the current enso neutral is cold in the east but if you get into phase 6 and 7 then milder air will start to move in. Going to give a few days to see how this develops and many times you get the models that go back and forth and that is why some of the model runs changing every other run. If the mjo stalls in phase 5 and then heads back to the cod then I would say its more of a normal second week of Dec but if it heads to phase 6 then a milder period should happen. Sooner of later we need to reload the cold but its only late November so we have plenty of time.

One last comment on the Thanksgiving Day storm and if for some reason we could get the southern energy to slow up and combine with the northern energy this would be one heck of a storm but getting those together as we know is never easy but again players on the field and give it a few days plus we do get a shot of cold after the first system this week and if the moisture from the second system gets in here a little quicker you can get a period of snow late Wednesday but at this point those chances are slimmer but not zero

[MVWxObserver]

Welcome back Tim!

CVG got to 44, DAY 46 and CMH 48 today.