November 2024 Weather Discussion

[dce]

2.5 inches so far at Indy. They will get 3 inches at least when this is done. More heavier bands still to move through there.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH got to 41 and DAY 38 in the predawn today.

[dce]

As of 7pm 1.4 at KDAY and 1.5 at CVG.

[Woolyworm]

From the woodpile. Grandma Wooly and dog Kiwi are dancing.

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[tron777]

Good morning all! Per the overnight climate report, the event total was 2" for CVG. Good way to start our season! Our next system brings rain Mon afternoon into Mon night. Then late Wed and definitely on Thanksgiving itself, looks to be our next rain maker. I do think some flakes at the end on Black Friday are possible. After that, we turn much colder and then we will be tracking more wintry type systems to kick off December!

[Bgoney]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

[tron777]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

[tron777]

Total QPF at CVG for yesterday's event was 0.22" so the models did a nice job with our first event of the season!

[Bgoney]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

A few more days averaging above normal starting this weekend but after thanksgiving should start a period of at least 10 days where that stretch will average below normal

[tron777]

Imby , had more total snow yesterday than all of this past February and March combined, so yeah I’d say that’s a good start to winter

CVG nearly the same!!!

Yes Sir! It's nice to start the season off well above normal for a change. This is actually normal (as you know) but it's been so terrible the last few years that a normal winter assuming it occurs, is going to shock some people.

A few more days averaging above normal starting this weekend but after thanksgiving should start a period of at least 10 days where that stretch will average below normal

Definitely agree, The first 1-2 weeks of December is looking chilly along with a clipper pattern to boot. Gotta like the looks of that! It is a very stable pattern too when you have monster blocking highs over AK and Greenland.

[dce]

FWIW This is phase 5 MJO in December with a neutral Enso if indeed the MJO does continue on in it's progression.

[Bgoney]

FWIW This is phase 5 MJO in December with a neutral Enso if indeed the MJO does continue on in it's progression.

I think that’s pretty much what the 500mb extended forecast modeling is headed towards

[tron777]

[tron777]

Early Thanksgiving thoughts....

My early thoughts for the big day is for rain ending as some flakes for Black Friday. Could this change? Of course! What we need to watch is the first cold front that comes thru Mon night of next week. How big is the cold push behind that system? How deep is that trough? How strong is the Canadian high and where is it located? This will be the foundation that will be laid for the Thanksgiving storm to track upon.

The new 12Z GFS that is coming in now shows a weak non phased system so cold and dry is the end result. We will see model fluctuations until we see where the front gets laid down early next week. 12Z CMC is rain for us, snow for I-70 Crew. 0Z Euro was rain, and the 6Z Euro AI was cold and dry. Pick your model, pick your poison right now.