1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[winterstormjoe]

I was fortunate enough to see big flakes coming down around 6am at a good clip but then it was all rain at 7 when I started working! Had a good dusting on the grass and some sidewalks and side of the street. Feeling optimistic after mid month is all I can say!

[MJSun]

And it's north as usual while we get rain. So close but so far.

[mainevilleweather]

Feel like the models didn't do a good job this week with precip types. The Mid-Atlantic looks like rain and freezing rain when they were expecting a good amount of snow.

Not enough cold air to work with and the dynamic cooling that was expected, didn't pan out. We needed a stronger low to pull more cold air down.

Hopefully one of this big upcoming storms can something for us besides rain

Good Lord, I wasn't awake yet when I wrote that haha.

[tron777]

Most of the precip is pulling away now. Maybe some drizzle leftover this afternoon. Then we track the next wave due in later tonight into tomorrow. That'll be a wrap for this system.

[mikeyp]

Man that system next weekend sure is going to be a monster for someone!!!

[tron777]

Man that system next weekend sure is going to be a monster for someone!!!

I am posting on it in the main January thread as we speak. It is looking like it will need its own thread next week.

[tron777]

Snow Totals.jpg

[tron777]

Some of the models way over did a lot of the QPF too which you would expect since the precip rate was not heavy enough to create the dynamic cooling. 0.22" at CVG for this first wave.

[MVWxObserver]

Picked up from a half inch to an inch here in Greenville.

Currently at the freezing mark here just shy 1 degree of ILN's progged high.

[tron777]

40 here today and at CVG in the "tropics" of AV Land.

[tron777]

AFD from the boys with regards to the second wave tonight into Sunday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The shortwave the resulted in mixed precipitation this morning
has now pushed off to the east of the region. In its wake, a
broad surface low pressure and upper trough still persist. For
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, surface flow
will be weak and variable. This will support the development of
fog around the area along with the potential for drizzle. Low
level lift is enhanced north of the low (western Ohio/eastern
Indiana), resulting in some snow and rain showers within the
drizzle through 6pm.

After a lull in the precipitation this evening, another
shortwave (& vort-max at 700mb) embedded within the trough will
move through the Ohio Valley overnight. Forcing is not overly
strong, but it is broad, resulting in an extended period of
light rain and snow showers through the overnight, especially
after midnight. Surface temperatures are marginal with low to
mid 30s forecast from north to south. Aloft, westerly flow will
cool temperatures, supporting snow dendrites to the surface.

Given the extensive duration of the precipitation and lack of
solar radiation, snow accumulations will be challenging given
the marginal surface temperatures and weak snow rates. Anything
around or higher than a half inch are isolated along and north
of I-70 or along the higher local elevations of the
Bellefontaine Ridge. This is where cooler temperatures have the
best chance of maintaining light snow accumulations into Sunday
morning before the solar radiation increases. Road temperatures
will cool with melted snow overnight, potentially leading to
some slick spots on elevated surfaces and untreated surfaces.
Due to lower confidence in direct road impacts with snow
intensity on the lighter side, no winter related statements are
expected at this time. Precipitation will be ongoing by the end
of the near term period, with light snow showers the primary
weather type for much of the area. Rain and snow and perhaps all
rain will be more likely along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning, high pressure building in from the southwest
will tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds through
Sunday morning. Rain and snow showers are ongoing, but will be
trending drier from west to east into the afternoon as the
forcing continues to weaken. Before mid-level heights begin to
increase Sunday evening/night, a few flurries are still possible
during the afternoon as the final piece of shortwave energy
moves through.

[young pup]

Just need a little ice to get rid of the rest of the salt in the truck. Don't want to go back to the salt bin to unload it. lol

[tron777]

Snowfall Local12.jpg

[mainevilleweather]

Ill take the 12z GFS please.

[tron777]

Good morning all. Light rain and 34 again this morning at CVG and IMBY. A raw day today with a few snow showers to the north and rain showers for us in the tropics down here. Mid to upper 30s ought to do it. The wind will pick up also this afternoon after a cold front passes.

[airwolf76]

I ended up with 8 " of concrete here. it took me a long time to clean this up, i had a lot to contend with. i dont wish this kind of snow on anybody. trust me it sucks. even snowblowers have a hard time with it. i can already tell this winter is going to be a major headache and now we already have flood watches up for the next storm, they are saying 2-4" here.

[tron777]

I ended up with 8 " of concrete here. it took me a long time to clean this up, i had a lot to contend with. i dont wish this kind of snow on anybody. trust me it sucks. even snowblowers have a hard time with it. i can already tell this winter is going to be a major headache and now we already have flood watches up for the next storm, they are saying 2-4" here.

Glad that the forecast worked out Charles! What is horrible is the flooding concerns as you said with the big cutter coming in. Hope you live on high ground man! Keep us posted when you can. We will say a prayer for you!

[airwolf76]

I ended up with 8 " of concrete here. it took me a long time to clean this up, i had a lot to contend with. i dont wish this kind of snow on anybody. trust me it sucks. even snowblowers have a hard time with it. i can already tell this winter is going to be a major headache and now we already have flood watches up for the next storm, they are saying 2-4" here.

Glad that the forecast worked out Charles! What is horrible is the flooding concerns as you said with the big cutter coming in. Hope you live on high ground man! Keep us posted when you can. We will say a prayer for you!

Yeah its crazy. hope people realize what is coming he next couple days around here . yeah thanks Lester I am ok where I am at. my house sits up pretty high. the land around the house has been reworked to channel water around me plus I have drain pipes on both sides of the footer foundation that run into a large drain field . I have never had an issue with water . the nearest creek is about 400 yards from me so I am not worried about that either. I will report back probably Wed morning

[tron777]

I ended up with 8 " of concrete here. it took me a long time to clean this up, i had a lot to contend with. i dont wish this kind of snow on anybody. trust me it sucks. even snowblowers have a hard time with it. i can already tell this winter is going to be a major headache and now we already have flood watches up for the next storm, they are saying 2-4" here.

Glad that the forecast worked out Charles! What is horrible is the flooding concerns as you said with the big cutter coming in. Hope you live on high ground man! Keep us posted when you can. We will say a prayer for you!

Yeah its crazy. hope people realize what is coming he next couple days around here . yeah thanks Lester I am ok where I am at. my house sits up pretty high. the land around the house has been reworked to channel water around me plus I have drain pipes on both sides of the footer foundation that run into a large drain field . I have never had an issue with water . the nearest creek is about 400 yards from me so I am not worried about that either. I will report back probably Wed morning

Good deal Charles... glad to hear that with regards to your house and property lay out!