Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Our rain for tonight into Sun morning is currently gathering down in the Arklatex region moving NE along the front which is about ready to stall out just south of the OH River.

[tron777]

Despite radar not showing anything over us right now, I am seeing some light drizzle / mist at this time. The water droplets are too small for radar to pick up. The leading edge of the measurable rains are moving into SE ILL now with a small batch out ahead of it over SW IN. If you have outdoor plans, I suggest wrapping them up by this evening.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Updated totals as we await the next round of heavier rains...

CVG - 0.14"
Me - 0.15"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.16"

[tpweather]

Good Evening and by looking at radar reports and how models are trying to forecast the future it looks like the local area has a good shot of being in the heart of both waves in the next 36 hours. Even though I thought the higher total of my .5-1.0 would be okay I am starting to believe that getting over 1 inch locally looks really good and would not be surprised locally that totals get nearer to the 1.5 mark. This first wave heads north/northeast before it finally only heads mainly east which gives us several hours of decent rains. So the first around alone may be my original forecast of .5-1. Still calling for some light snow showers tonight locally but so far nothing but will keep my eyes open

[tron777]

Good Evening and by looking at radar reports and how models are trying to forecast the future it looks like the local area has a good shot of being in the heart of both waves in the next 36 hours. Even though I thought the higher total of my .5-1.0 would be okay I am starting to believe that getting over 1 inch locally looks really good and would not be surprised locally that totals get nearer to the 1.5 mark. This first wave heads north/northeast before it finally only heads mainly east which gives us several hours of decent rains. So the first around alone may be my original forecast of .5-1. Still calling for some light snow showers tonight locally but so far nothing but will keep my eyes open

I like the higher call on this one Tim and that is odd coming from me as I am usually more conservative. An inch is a nice avg for a lot of posters. As you said, some will see less, others more but 1" is a nice avg. by the time all is said and done Monday afternoon. The front has stalled out perfectly for us to get hit with both waves IMO.

For you in Wisc Tim... the better banding of snow is to your south. As strange as it seems, you maybe too far north to see much, if anything in Wausau. It is closer to Stevens Point. Monday night into Tues morning is your best chance to see flakes.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Good morning all! Current totals from around my hood:

CVG - 1.32"
Me - 1.41"
Boone Co Mesonet - 1.50"

Light drizzle and a few scattered showers remain for a little while today until the last batch of rain comes in this evening ending Monday morning. Could someone get to the 2" mark? It is possible! Then as you know we turn cold and end the growing season Tues morning.

We are still watching the potential for a few flakes Halloween evening / Wed morning 11/1 time frame. Again if you see a few flakes, that's all you'll see and nothing more. No problems are expected from it.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Looks like locally we hit the jackpot. Most places in the Ohio Valley got between 1/3 and 1/2 inch except further to the southeast and Lexington only 0.04. I agree that 2 inches is more and more likely for us locally as we are off to a wonderful start. Looks like the heaviest rains will be near us and to the east. No snow here though the airport showed light snow reported 1 hour but no accumulation. Glad the rain came and again not a drought buster but a nice dent before winter and before all is said and done CVG will be above normal in rainfall for the month.

[Bgoney]

1.25” here . That’s the first inch+ from an event since the beginning of May for me , pretty remarkable.

Looks like there might be some totals approaching 2” in highland/Clinton counties

IMG_0772.png

[tron777]

Tim.... it is indeed a great start and just what the Dr ordered too. We truly needed this event to pan out and it has done so. Bgoney... I'm very glad you finally picked up a nice soaking rainfall as well. Your location truly needed it probably more so then the rest of us.

Radar shows the final area of rain that is coming later today into Monday morning developing and heading in our direction from the SW. Portions of OK, AR, MO, ILL, SW IN, and Western KY are already getting a nice soaking this morning.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Bgoney and glad to see you got in on this action. You may end up doubling that total before all is said and done. Looks like two more waves are heading this way though the time between them will be short and may not be able to tell the difference. We have the front sitting in central Kentucky and is sort of stalled. Plenty of moisture to the south and when the waves come through they bring that moisture up and try to move the front northward. Again how far north will determine the heaviest rainfall and at the moment it does look to happen along the I-71 zone. Everyone will get some rain and some quite a bit and from what I am seeing would not be surprised to see a few 3 inch totals. This front has been known for heavy rains though not widespread heavy rain but certain areas getting pounded like Wausau and CVG lol. Sitting at a balmy 30 degrees locally and yes they are starting to talk about enough snow overnight Monday and Tuesday morning to put out a light accumulation. The cold has settled in so the ground is cooling off so it would not surprise me to see 1/2 - 1 inch of snow.

[tpweather]

Just a little place north of here by a few miles called Rib Mountain and they got a light dusting of snow. The two youngest are going to start ski lessons this winter.

[tron777]

12Z NAM gives CVG an additional 1/2" of rain with this last wave which would get us close to that 2" mark.

[tpweather]

Tim.... it is indeed a great start and just what the Dr ordered too. We truly needed this event to pan out and it has done so. Bgoney... I'm very glad you finally picked up a nice soaking rainfall as well. Your location truly needed it probably more so then the rest of us.

Radar shows the final area of rain that is coming later today into Monday morning developing and heading in our direction from the SW. Portions of OK, AR, MO, ILL, SW IN, and Western KY are already getting a nice soaking this morning.

Les looks like the first wave of low pressure is in northeast Arkansas and moving northeast. The second wave looks to be in southeast Oklahoma and I believe that the first wave will drag the front and the second wave northeast. That is why I believe their is a small break between the two at the moment and may be hard to see the second wave later today because the break in rain will be much shorter. No matter it is going to be another rainy period and again maybe not a drought buster but a nice dent in the action and with the ground still able to soak in water this is really nice.

[tron777]

Tim.... it is indeed a great start and just what the Dr ordered too. We truly needed this event to pan out and it has done so. Bgoney... I'm very glad you finally picked up a nice soaking rainfall as well. Your location truly needed it probably more so then the rest of us.

Radar shows the final area of rain that is coming later today into Monday morning developing and heading in our direction from the SW. Portions of OK, AR, MO, ILL, SW IN, and Western KY are already getting a nice soaking this morning.

Les looks like the first wave of low pressure is in northeast Arkansas and moving northeast. The second wave looks to be in southeast Oklahoma and I believe that the first wave will drag the front and the second wave northeast. That is why I believe their is a small break between the two at the moment and may be hard to see the second wave later today because the break in rain will be much shorter. No matter it is going to be another rainy period and again maybe not a drought buster but a nice dent in the action and with the ground still able to soak in water this is really nice.

This event will most certainly put a dent in the drought. We probably need another 2-4" or so to get us completely out. Just my guess anyway on the subject.

[tron777]

12Z NAM gives CVG an additional 1/2" of rain with this last wave which would get us close to that 2" mark.

12Z GFS is in perfect agreement with this.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM gives CVG an additional 1/2" of rain with this last wave which would get us close to that 2" mark.

12Z GFS is in perfect agreement with this.

Just looking downstream parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas are getting over an inch with this latest wave and its not finished with them. I believe 1/2 inch is too low for us locally and going .75-1.25. Rain breeds rain and just looking at the radar and surface reports and with the front being nearby I believe the latest models runs are too low on rain totals. Some folks like Indy may see .25-.50 but at the moment going with the higher totals for us.

[tron777]

12Z NAM gives CVG an additional 1/2" of rain with this last wave which would get us close to that 2" mark.

12Z GFS is in perfect agreement with this.

Just looking downstream parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas are getting over an inch with this latest wave and its not finished with them. I believe 1/2 inch is too low for us locally and going .75-1.25. Rain breeds rain and just looking at the radar and surface reports and with the front being nearby I believe the latest models runs are too low on rain totals. Some folks like Indy may see .25-.50 but at the moment going with the higher totals for us.

12Z HRRR and RAP models agree completely with you on this Tim. The HRRR gives us 0.75" and almost 1" from the RAP.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM gives CVG an additional 1/2" of rain with this last wave which would get us close to that 2" mark.

12Z GFS is in perfect agreement with this.

Just looking downstream parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas are getting over an inch with this latest wave and its not finished with them. I believe 1/2 inch is too low for us locally and going .75-1.25. Rain breeds rain and just looking at the radar and surface reports and with the front being nearby I believe the latest models runs are too low on rain totals. Some folks like Indy may see .25-.50 but at the moment going with the higher totals for us.

12Z HRRR and RAP models agree completely with you on this Tim. The HRRR gives us 0.75" and almost 1" from the RAP.

Les another reason I went higher was the leftover moisture in central Kentucky where the front stalled. I believe as the system moves northeast that will just add to the totals. Love to see this kind of system in December

[tron777]

No doubt Tim! This would have been a nice snow storm for us if we had any cold air to work with. Speaking of snow... here is a live web cam feed from Mile High Stadium in Denver. We may have a snow game this afternoon with the Chiefs and Broncos.


https://livebeachcam.net/mile-high-stad ... denver-co/

[tpweather]

No doubt Tim! This would have been a nice snow storm for us if we had any cold air to work with. Speaking of snow... here is a live web cam feed from Mile High Stadium in Denver. We may have a snow game this afternoon with the Chiefs and Broncos.


https://livebeachcam.net/mile-high-stad ... denver-co/

Love snow games and maybe Denver will have a better shot of beating K.C. though not sure if Denver's defense can stop anyone

[tron777]

No doubt Tim! This would have been a nice snow storm for us if we had any cold air to work with. Speaking of snow... here is a live web cam feed from Mile High Stadium in Denver. We may have a snow game this afternoon with the Chiefs and Broncos.


https://livebeachcam.net/mile-high-stad ... denver-co/

Love snow games and maybe Denver will have a better shot of beating K.C. though not sure if Denver's defense can stop anyone

Mahomes will win the game for exactly that reason Tim. Denver's defense couldn't stop a high school football team!

[tpweather]

Les what I love seeing in a pattern for us in the winter is one where cold air is able to slide down the east side of the Rockies into western Texas. Driving that cold further south instead of east helps us big time during the winter and many times with a big storm the front moves through and stalls in the gulf states and another low forms and heads northeast. Good to see GOM moisture getting put into this system as well. Still believe the second severe season could be bad for some folks and will that extend this far north and never easy as we are on the edge usually even in a good set up but the southeast could really get hit. Working on my winter forecast and one thing I will throw out that I really feel confident is Florida is going to have a huge severe winter season in terms of strong to severe storms.

[tron777]

Les what I love seeing in a pattern for us in the winter is one where cold air is able to slide down the east side of the Rockies into western Texas. Driving that cold further south instead of east helps us big time during the winter and many times with a big storm the front moves through and stalls in the gulf states and another low forms and heads northeast. Good to see GOM moisture getting put into this system as well. Still believe the second severe season could be bad for some folks and will that extend this far north and never easy as we are on the edge usually even in a good set up but the southeast could really get hit. Working on my winter forecast and one thing I will throw out that I really feel confident is Florida is going to have a huge severe winter season in terms of strong to severe storms.

I'm also intrigued by the storm track we have been seeing thus far. It could help the East Coast later in the winter but early on, I believe inland runners which could help us out early on in the winter. Typically with El Ninos, you get a warm late Nov and Dec but as we've said in our El Nino thread, so far, this ENSO event has not been acting like your typical Nino so all bets are off IMO on trying to figure things out. I've seen 2002-2003 thrown around a lot as an analog and that had a fast start to winter esp in early December with snow in the first week of the month at CVG, a mid month break but turned cold and wintry again just in time for Christmas with 1" officially falling on Christmas Day that year. We have not had a cold and snowy December in such a long time so I would not expect it this year at least right now anyway, but it would be nice if it does occur.