September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Sure hope you are right Tim! I'm keeping my forecast lower right now. There is still tons of time for changes as it's only Sunday and we are talking Days 3-4. I did just check the 12Z GEFS Mean and rainfall amounts on the ensemble mean were at 0.75 to 1" for Wed and Thurs so it is an encouraging sign. I will admit that. 12Z CMC also showing 0.50 to 1" for the region. I'm just not yet sold on it actually coming to fruition.

[MVWxObserver]

Sure hope you are right Tim! I'm keeping my forecast lower right now. There is still tons of time for changes as it's only Sunday and we are talking Days 3-4. I did just check the 12Z GEFS Mean and rainfall amounts on the ensemble mean were at 0.75 to 1" for Wed and Thurs so it is an encouraging sign. I will admit that. 12Z CMC also showing 0.50 to 1" for the region. I'm just not yet sold on it actually coming to fruition.

Prayerfully will come to fruition for us Bro.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has about 4 tenths for CVG.

[tron777]

80 here today, CVG 81. Grill is going with some baked potatoes then it will be followed up by some ribeyes! Oh and cold beer too obviously lol

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 83, DAY 80 and CMH 75 on Sun.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning to you all! The models are looking better for rain chances this week! In my mind, the heaviest amounts should fall for the I-70 Crew and lower amounts as one heads south. The timing looks to be late tomorrow thru Thursday with the highest chances on Wednesday. Amounts look to be 0.50-1" across the north tapering down to 0.25-0.50" across the south. Not a drought buster by any means, but it could be a nice soaking in some areas. Track of the low will determine where the heaviest rain falls and right now as I said, I believe that will be across our northern counties. Props to Tim on bumping up his call yesterday.

[tron777]

For CVG.... Rainfall amounts from Tues - Thurs:

6Z NAM ending at 2pm Thurs - 0.53"
6Z GFS: 0.50"
6Z Euro: 0.91" ending at 2pm Thurs

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. I see the Euro went up in totals and that is a good sign. Always the problem when its been dry for so long is how much of the possible rain total is just getting the atmosphere loaded. Still going with 0.50-1 inch. Hopefully its more widespread and everyone gets in on the action. No drought buster but hopefully enough to clean the air and help the leave colors.

Then another ridge builds in here and my guess that is because the models are seeing a possible tropical system near the GOM. This would lead to another warm spell starting this weekend into the following week. The good news models are starting to get into the second week of Oct and most are seeing a ridge building in the west which is normal this time of year and a trough over the central and eastern USA. This is when the coastal areas of California usually see some of their hottest temps of the year.

[tron777]

Tim, the models are trying to show another system forming off the East Coast like Ophelia. That Gulf low looks to move West and then encounter shear so it may not even form. If we see an Ophelia like repeat, then we'll be high and dry as well as warm with U70s and L80s again for end the of this month as as we go into October thanks to ridging. The OP GFS is trying to bring that +PNA pattern back though with cold air instructions beginning as we end Week 1 in October. Unfortunately, this is not currently supported by the GEFS and EPS as the Ensembles keep the current pattern in place with the trough over the Pacific NW and ridging across the OV, Lakes, and S Canada.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Tim, the models are trying to show another system forming off the East Coast like Ophelia. That Gulf low looks to move West and then encounter shear so it may not even form. If we see an Ophelia like repeat, then we'll be high and dry as well as warm with U70s and L80s again for end the of this month as as we go into October thanks to ridging. The OP GFS is trying to bring that +PNA pattern back though with cold air instructions beginning as we end Week 1 in October. Unfortunately, this is not currently supported by the GEFS and EPS as the Ensembles keep the current pattern in place with the trough over the Pacific NW and ridging across the OV, Lakes, and S Canada.

Les the tropics are a problem getting into the new pattern. I do believe the Gulf low is where the higher heights showing this weekend and next week. Once the tropics break down then hopefully back to a more normal early-mid Oct in store.

[tpweather]

Another great video from Brian. He made a key point about how in the past when we are in or heading into an El NIno the tropics would be on the low side in the Atlantic and Gom. The Atlantic has been busier than normal especially in the western Atlantic near the mainland USA. I went with what previous El Nino's had and a quiet tropical season. I missed that and several options of why that happened and I will need to do some more homework on why this is happening. I agree that the cooler air will arrive but again timing and much of that is with any new development of tropical systems and I believe the possible GOM system is key to the forecast. How much rain mid-week and the LLJ could play a big part overnight both Wed and Thurs mornings. If we can get the correct set-up and have that jet come into the local area chances for higher rainfall totals are possible. If that either misses us or never happens then my feeling is rainfall will still happen but everyone may not get those .5-1 inch totals. So still a summer pattern in a way with showers and thundershowers but also the LLJ is trying to pick up somewhat and that happens more once we get into the fall severe season which is usually mid-Oct - later-Nov.

[tron777]

Tim, the models are trying to show another system forming off the East Coast like Ophelia. That Gulf low looks to move West and then encounter shear so it may not even form. If we see an Ophelia like repeat, then we'll be high and dry as well as warm with U70s and L80s again for end the of this month as as we go into October thanks to ridging. The OP GFS is trying to bring that +PNA pattern back though with cold air instructions beginning as we end Week 1 in October. Unfortunately, this is not currently supported by the GEFS and EPS as the Ensembles keep the current pattern in place with the trough over the Pacific NW and ridging across the OV, Lakes, and S Canada.

Les the tropics are a problem getting into the new pattern. I do believe the Gulf low is where the higher heights showing this weekend and next week. Once the tropics break down then hopefully back to a more normal early-mid Oct in store.

I completely agree Tim. Once the tropics shut down, the trough out West will be allowed to come East to cool us back down. OP GFS is likely rushing the idea. It is looking more like Week 2 or mid month at this time which I think we are both agreeing on.

[tron777]

I forgot to mention that we do have a marginal risk of severe storms on Wednesday. It depends on if we see any morning rain or not. Severe chances are low anyway, but some convection popping isn't a bad thing since heavier totals can occur with that set up. The bad news... some will see that and some will not meaning lighter totals for those that do not see the convection over their hoods.

[tpweather]

Tim, the models are trying to show another system forming off the East Coast like Ophelia. That Gulf low looks to move West and then encounter shear so it may not even form. If we see an Ophelia like repeat, then we'll be high and dry as well as warm with U70s and L80s again for end the of this month as as we go into October thanks to ridging. The OP GFS is trying to bring that +PNA pattern back though with cold air instructions beginning as we end Week 1 in October. Unfortunately, this is not currently supported by the GEFS and EPS as the Ensembles keep the current pattern in place with the trough over the Pacific NW and ridging across the OV, Lakes, and S Canada.

Les the tropics are a problem getting into the new pattern. I do believe the Gulf low is where the higher heights showing this weekend and next week. Once the tropics break down then hopefully back to a more normal early-mid Oct in store.

I completely agree Tim. Once the tropics shut down, the trough out West will be allowed to come East to cool us back down. OP GFS is likely rushing the idea. It is looking more like Week 2 or mid month at this time which I think we are both agreeing on.

We are on the same page and many times the models in the longer term will head back towards the mean. This can rush pattern changes quite often. Would love to see the gom low become a nice little system and head directly north toward us later next week but that is just wishful thinking at this point. Then we would get rain followed by the cooler shot.

[tron777]

Tim, the models are trying to show another system forming off the East Coast like Ophelia. That Gulf low looks to move West and then encounter shear so it may not even form. If we see an Ophelia like repeat, then we'll be high and dry as well as warm with U70s and L80s again for end the of this month as as we go into October thanks to ridging. The OP GFS is trying to bring that +PNA pattern back though with cold air instructions beginning as we end Week 1 in October. Unfortunately, this is not currently supported by the GEFS and EPS as the Ensembles keep the current pattern in place with the trough over the Pacific NW and ridging across the OV, Lakes, and S Canada.

Les the tropics are a problem getting into the new pattern. I do believe the Gulf low is where the higher heights showing this weekend and next week. Once the tropics break down then hopefully back to a more normal early-mid Oct in store.

I completely agree Tim. Once the tropics shut down, the trough out West will be allowed to come East to cool us back down. OP GFS is likely rushing the idea. It is looking more like Week 2 or mid month at this time which I think we are both agreeing on.

We are on the same page and many times the models in the longer term will head back towards the mean. This can rush pattern changes quite often. Would love to see the gom low become a nice little system and head directly north toward us later next week but that is just wishful thinking at this point. Then we would get rain followed by the cooler shot.

Just to clarify, when I talked about the Gulf system, I was referring to the current tropical wave over the S Gulf that has little chance of developing. Down the road yes... I am with you on that potential Gulf system should a frontal boundary remain stalled long enough over the N Gulf towards the end of next week. That would be nice if a TS develops. However, you would also need a well timed cold front (trough) to pull the system northward towards us. A low chance of occurring this far out in time, but not impossible. We will certainly keep an eye on that possibility over the next week and change.

As far as when the trough can come East, the MJO is showing some signs of "waking up" and working into Phase 7 and then 8 for the second half of October. We shall see what happens with this as the West Pac tropical season continues. We'll see if that can give the MJO a boost in those West Pac phases so to speak. I feel that the second half of October should be much more interesting versus the first half.

For now in the short term, we are tracking rain chances this week and everything else mentioned in our posts is good food for thought.

[tpweather]

Normally mid-August to mid-Oct are boring most years. Though we have been dry its not unusual and though at the moment we are probably in the top 10 of driest Septembers if we get say 1 inch of rain that will probably put us maybe in the top 30 or 40 driest Septembers. Without a tropical system getting 1 inch from a system in September is rather rare. Little more muggy today and still keeping AC off but maybe by the weekend or early next week I may need to turn it on one last time.

[tron777]

At CVG, Sept total rainfall sits at a very measly 0.35" This puts us at #4 on the list of Top Ten driest Septembers on record currently.
At DAY, Sept total rainfall is 0.27" This ties for #3 with 1963 also at 0.27" attm.
At CMH, Sept total rainfall is also 0.27" This ranks at the driest Sept ever so far. #1 currently is 0.42" from back in 1908.

From a few pages back....

[tron777]

12Z NAM paints 0.41" at CVG ending 8pm Thursday.

[tpweather]

12Z NAM paints 0.41" at CVG ending 8pm Thursday.

The models with each run will place higher numbers at different locations each time. As we get closer you hope those become more clearer. Example will be the 12Z NAM has 0.41 and the next run may have 0.25 and the next run 0.76. Just a little too early and we will see what the gfs and euro show and my guess one may be higher than the 12z and one lower

[tron777]

12Z NAM paints 0.41" at CVG ending 8pm Thursday.

The models with each run will place higher numbers at different locations each time. As we get closer you hope those become more clearer. Example will be the 12Z NAM has 0.41 and the next run may have 0.25 and the next run 0.76. Just a little too early and we will see what the gfs and euro show and my guess one may be higher than the 12z and one lower

I personally like a model blend which would be a half inch. That is pretty much the avg at this point. I do believe a band of 1" is likely but my current thoughts are that it falls north of Cincinnati like in the Dayton and Columbus areas.

[MVWxObserver]

Will be nice for all of us in general to get more than just a ground wetter this week.

[tron777]

Will be nice for all of us in general to get more than just a ground wetter this week.

Absolutely! It's pretty crunchy and dusty out there. As Tim mentioned a few days ago, hopefully we see enough rain to do a nice rinse job on the atmosphere for allergy sufferers. (Like me lol)

[MVWxObserver]

Will be nice for all of us in general to get more than just a ground wetter this week.

Absolutely! It's pretty crunchy and dusty out there. As Tim mentioned a few days ago, hopefully we see enough rain to do a nice rinse job on the atmosphere for allergy sufferers. (Like me lol)

Same here Bro. I take a daily Zyrtec and used to get allergy shots in NC but those injections got to be a hassle after a while.

[tron777]

Will be nice for all of us in general to get more than just a ground wetter this week.

Absolutely! It's pretty crunchy and dusty out there. As Tim mentioned a few days ago, hopefully we see enough rain to do a nice rinse job on the atmosphere for allergy sufferers. (Like me lol)

Same here Bro. I take a daily Zyrtec and used to get allergy shots in NC but those injections got to be a hassle after a while.

Benadryl here.