September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Welcome to the first month of Meteorological Fall everyone! Unfortunately mother nature has other plans for us. The weather pattern will be anything but fall like for the first half of the month. Little to no rainfall is also expected for at least the first week and change of the new month. the weather looks great for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday evening and a little toasty for your BBQ plans on Labor Day. However, no rain is expected so your outdoor plans for the Holiday Weekend are all systems go!

As a carry over from the August thread, I am expecting temps on 9/1 to be in the low to mid 80s, U80s Sat, near 90 sun, and in the low 90s for Labor Day. Sticking with the low 90s for now for next week, at least thru Thursday, perhaps Friday depending on when the next weak front gets in there to drop temps back into the 80s by the following weekend.

[tpweather]

Welcome to the first month of Meteorological Fall everyone! Unfortunately mother nature has other plans for us. The weather pattern will be anything but fall like for the first half of the month. Little to no rainfall is also expected for at least the first week and change of the new month. the weather looks great for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday evening and a little toasty for your BBQ plans on Labor Day. However, no rain is expected so your outdoor plans for the Holiday Weekend are all systems go!

As a carry over from the August thread, I am expecting temps on 9/1 to be in the low to mid 80s, U80s Sat, near 90 sun, and in the low 90s for Labor Day. Sticking with the low 90s for now for next week, at least thru Thursday, perhaps Friday depending on when the next weak front gets in there to drop temps back into the 80s by the following weekend.

Wonderful Post Les. I do believe the cold front towards the end of next week is stronger than it shows at the moment and once again get these tropical systems out of the way and models usually readjust.

[tron777]

Welcome to the first month of Meteorological Fall everyone! Unfortunately mother nature has other plans for us. The weather pattern will be anything but fall like for the first half of the month. Little to no rainfall is also expected for at least the first week and change of the new month. the weather looks great for the WEBN Fireworks Sunday evening and a little toasty for your BBQ plans on Labor Day. However, no rain is expected so your outdoor plans for the Holiday Weekend are all systems go!

As a carry over from the August thread, I am expecting temps on 9/1 to be in the low to mid 80s, U80s Sat, near 90 sun, and in the low 90s for Labor Day. Sticking with the low 90s for now for next week, at least thru Thursday, perhaps Friday depending on when the next weak front gets in there to drop temps back into the 80s by the following weekend.

Wonderful Post Les. I do believe the cold front towards the end of next week is stronger than it shows at the moment and once again get these tropical systems out of the way and models usually readjust.

Thanks Tim! More importantly, I sure hope we can get some rain out of the deal and it's not a dry frontal passage like what we saw this morning. We'll need to see how much moisture is available or does the Gulf continue to be closed for business?

[tron777]

12Z GFS just has isolated convection Sept 6-8th. I'm just not seeing much rainfall for the first half of the month. It would not shock me if some locations record ZERO rainfall from 9/1 thru 9/15 the way it looks at this time. Hopefully this won't be the case, but don't be shocked if it is.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is dry until day 9 Sept 8th when isolated convection is possible. Temp wise, 90-92 is about it for the next "heat wave". In fact, the Euro only has the heat thru about Wed then we're back into the mid and upper 80s.

[tpweather]

Les starting to see the models modify next week with temps. I really believe its just once the tropics are out of the way they will come down a few degrees plus they are starting to notice the ridge early next week will be heading back to the west. Again each year at this time we must adjust the forecast based a lot on how much tropical activity is near the USA. Next week does not bode well for any tropical activity imo so this should help us start to head back towards normal late next week. I agree rainfall is usually scarce when we have a pattern that is sort of shutting down the tropics. Will they come back in a couple of weeks and sure that is possible and after mid-month I really have not looked at the pattern much.

[tron777]

Les starting to see the models modify next week with temps. I really believe its just once the tropics are out of the way they will come down a few degrees plus they are starting to notice the ridge early next week will be heading back to the west. Again each year at this time we must adjust the forecast based a lot on how much tropical activity is near the USA. Next week does not bode well for any tropical activity imo so this should help us start to head back towards normal late next week. I agree rainfall is usually scarce when we have a pattern that is sort of shutting down the tropics. Will they come back in a couple of weeks and sure that is possible and after mid-month I really have not looked at the pattern much.

You know my call Tim. Low 90s looking good to me for max temps next week. Hottest day will most likely be Tues / Wed at this point. Agree that we should cool down more towards normal once the tropics shut down. The heat ridge though still looks to remain thru mid month especially West of us, like it has been for most of the summer. We are on the edge next week as usual. We are just not going to see the cold fronts and MCS's unfortunately. It is almost Sept after all and as you know, it is our driest month of the year with October being second.

[tpweather]

Les we are close on the forecast and I am just going cooler at the end of the week as I expect the northeast to be cooling down and we end up on the edge of that air mass. So I have 3 days between 90-92 and that will be Mon-Wed and I have probably 86-89 on Sat and Sunday. Late next week I expect 87 or so on Thursday and then Fri-Sun of next week I expect temps in the 82-85 range though I may need to drop a few degrees but will wait on more info.

[tron777]

Les we are close on the forecast and I am just going cooler at the end of the week as I expect the northeast to be cooling down and we end up on the edge of that air mass. So I have 3 days between 90-92 and that will be Mon-Wed and I have probably 86-89 on Sat and Sunday. Late next week I expect 87 or so on Thursday and then Fri-Sun of next week I expect temps in the 82-85 range though I may need to drop a few degrees but will wait on more info.

Your forecast looks good also. I could be wrong with my timing on the cool down for sure. I'm not sure if the 90s are done after Wed or more towards Friday? We'll see once we get closer how that timing looks. Otherwise, I think we are very very similar with our forecasts.

[tron777]

Good morning! I have no changes to my forecast thru about the middle of next week. By then, models diverge. The GFS tries to bring scattered storms with a cold front by late Wed / Wed evening. The Euro is slower with isolated chances Thurs and a much higher chance with the front next Friday. So if the GFS is right, Wed is the last day of the 90s and if the Euro is right, it would go thru Thurs. We shall see! Other then that, whatcha see and whatcha get at this time.

[tron777]

12Z GFS today continues to try and bring in isolated to scattered storms Wed afternoon and evening with the next cold front, Looking ahead, the model even tries to get us back into a somewhat more active pattern. Not quite a +PNA pattern but darn close. GEFS has mid to upper 80s this weekend, 90 on Labor Day then low 90s Tues thru Thurs then we're back into the 80s. GEFS only has around 0.30" for rainfall over the next 10 days. We are dry thru Tues, isolated chances Wed, scattered Thurs, and a little better chance by the end of next week. This coincides better with the 0Z Euro run from last night. 12Z CMC's solution would be nice (and I think this is what the GEFS is showing too) is that the front comes in Wed night then lingers over the area thru the end of the run (next weekend). That sure would be nice if correct.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 90+ by Labor Day thru about Friday of next week. It is even slower at bringing in the next front then before. If correct, the heat may linger longer but the trade off would be a slower frontal passage and maybe even some decent rain chances by the end of the week or next weekend. Looks like the Euro does not stall the front. So the trends today are to push a front in here and maybe stall it out. The biggest difference is timing. Does it arrive as early as Wed per the GFS or Friday per the Euro?

[tron777]

Good morning folks! 55 here this morning on our first day of Met Fall! Today's temps should be right at normal for early Sept in the lower 80s. After that, we are above normal for a while. The 90s are coming as you know as well, low 90s tops. Dews should max out in the U60s next week so at least the humidity isn't as bad as the last heat event. Rain chances are zero until Wed, Thurs where a 20% POP is required. Hope to raise those chances by next Friday.

[tron777]

Let's all wish a Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Hope you have a wonderful day!

[tron777]

I think the biggest forecast challenge is the front for next week. It should slow down and stall out if Idalia (or its leftovers) can stall off the East Coast long enough to slow the flow down over the CONUS. If that system hangs out in the Western Atlantic for the next week, then that will help bring better rain chances later next week for us. If Idalia goes out to sea and that's it, then the front will blow thru here with only minimal rain chances. We shall see!

[tpweather]

Let's all wish a Happy Birthday to wxpatriot! Hope you have a wonderful day!

Happy Birthday and hope you have the best one ever

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Another beauty in store today. A couple of things to talk about and the heat expected starting Saturday. This is a case where it may be much hotter in Madison,Wi than Cincinnati during this period. The way the ridge is aligned will keep the hottest temps to the west and northwest. That is one reason I believe 3 days of 90 plus is what we may see. Les mentioned the leftovers from the tropical system is going to sitting somewhere in the Atlantic and will it hang around long enough to influence our weather. I don't think so because it is getting to the latitude that the jet will either sweep it out to sea or enough winds to wear it down more. The cold front late next week imo is going to be stronger than models have showed this week so starting next Thursday heading into next weekend I expect the readings to start going down.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! As far as the 90s go, Sunday will be close. I could see us getting 89'ed. Definitely believe Mon - Wed is good for that 90-93 degree range. Thurs is a toss up due to the possibility of the front moving in which could keep temps in the upper 80s. 3 days of 90+ is very likely to me with an outside chance of getting 5 in total should the "worst case" scenario play out.

As far as our future rain chances go, we want Idalia to hang around as long as possible to assist us in getting better rain chances due to a slower moving system, otherwise rain chances will be minimal and not very widespread. Plus the front would be able to come thru easily with nothing blocking it to the east. Model solutions going forward are going to struggle as a result of the tropics.

[tron777]

82 at CVG per the 3pm reading. Dews are still quite nice at 56. 12Z GFS has spotty rain chances Wed, Thurs, and a decent chance Thurs night into early Friday of next week. A small break then NW flow pattern develops with a nice trough and frontal passage around the 12th of Sept. The heat ridge gets squashed to the SW and eventually gets beaten down completely towards the end of the run. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen.

12Z Canadian is in decent agreement just a little slower with the best rain chances coming Fri morning instead so about 12 hours slower then the GFS which from this distance isn't bad at all. The 12Z GEFS has the heat ridge also retrograding back to the SW but remaining over Texas, OK, and into the SW states. Late in the run a trough for us eventually develops after mid month but it's in model fantasy range.

12Z Euro is coming in now and it is dry until Thurs afternoon and into the overnight with isolated storms possible. Like a 30% chance pretty much. As far as the 90s go, I like the idea of Sunday being close, might fall short. Mon - Wed is a lock then Thurs is close but will probably fall short due to clouds and / or isolated storms ahead of the cold front. Friday is the frontal passage on the Euro and that day still holds our best chance for rain. I would go in that 50-70% coverage range. Another front gets closer to us at the end of the run 9/11, which would tend to agree with the OP GFS which brings it in on the 12th.

[tpweather]

Les I believe the models are returning back to normal and once the tropical systems are out of the way. I agree with the ridge heading back west later next week which is normal this time of year and this also lets cold or cool fronts start to work their way in the USA on a more frequent pace. So yes a warm start to September and hopefully by mid-month we are near normal which would have highs in the upper 70's and lows upper 50's.

[tpweather]

The current pattern is giving the southwest some beneficial rains and this is really towards the end of the monsoon season. They sort of got lucky with the tropical system that came through a couple of weeks ago as it has been a very dry monsoon season and especially when you get nearer the Texas Border. Of course once the ridge moves westward later next week this will also tend to end the rains and maybe for several months in the southwest.

[tpweather]

Hope everyone has a wonderful Labor Day Weekend. The weather will be dry and getting warmer but the humidity not overwhelming. Will next week be the last 90 degree day we see this year and my guess is yes but you can never say never since we could always get that one day ahead of cold front to push us up to 90.

[tron777]

Good afternoon Tim! Wonderful posts as usual from you. Of course I expect nothing less right?

Anyway... we'll see how it goes with the temps and then upcoming rain chances. Hopefully, we can get by with 3 more 90s then by midmonth odds certainly decrease. But, if the -PNA refuses to give it up, never say never as they say. October 2007 taught us that. That was a big La Nina though. The funny thing is... this current El Nino was acting like a Nino for most of the summer but for now it is behaving more like a Nina. Hopefully that changes. We should start to get some real fall weather by late Sept or definitely by October. Current long term and I mean way way out there indications are for a colder then normal October with above normal precip. Colder for November also with near normal precip. Then we should get our annual December torch with the pattern getting better for us snow weenies in January, A rocking February and March incoming. Naturally, this is all pure speculation and we will monitor things in real time closely as we usually do.

[tron777]

My game plan for Labor Day weekend is that I'll be watching the Michigan Game tomorrow since College football is kicking off now. Then I'll be heading to my Brother's for dinner (bacon wrapped deer loin YUM!). Then I'll be back Sunday to smoke some ribs and my Brother and the kids will be coming out for that in the afternoon after the boys have their football games Sun morning. Labor Day will be spent relaxing and eating leftovers (if there are any!) I hope all you have an enjoyable weekend! Don't forget the WEBN fireworks are Sunday night also at 9:05pm! I'll be watching that from home on Local 12, but it is a cool experience being down there. Best seat is on the Serpentine Wall. I have gone several times many years ago.

[tron777]

84 here today, 85 CVG. A couple degrees warmer then I thought it would get but overall a nice day!