September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Scattered downpours are possible for the next few hours before we have to wait a while again for it to rain. 70 now at CVG. Low 70s will be it for today.

[tron777]

Getting a nice down pour right now in association with the cold front.

[tron777]

Getting some heavy rain now! This is awesome!

[tron777]

Up to a 0.21" on the day now! Hope the rest of you got lucky! Boone Co mesonet at 0.22" and CVG 0.18".

[young pup]

Only picked up a tenth of an inch here. Better than zero I guess.

[cloudy72]

0.32” here I’ll take it!

[tron777]

Good morning all! A pretty easy forecast guys. Highs mainly in the 75 to 80 degree range for the next 10 days. Lows mainly in the 50s with a few upper 40s this morning and tomorrow morning possible. Rain chances look to be the highest late Sat into early Sunday and that is only a 20-30% chance. Otherwise we are dry.

[tron777]

54 for my low this morning. Feels wonderful!

EDIT: 55 at CVG.

[cloudy72]

52 here - and yes I agree it feels wonderful out!

[young pup]

Sweat shirt and pants kinda of morning here.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Good afternoon all! I don't have much else to report after looking at the afternoon models. The 40s for most areas tonight (minus city centers) and 75 to 80 for highs over the next 10 days and lows mainly in the 50s (40s possible in outlying areas). Best rain chances are late Sat into early Sun and those chances remain very low. Still expecting the last week of Sept to be mild in the 80s with ridging while a trough persists over the Pacific NW and Western Canada.

[tron777]

77 here today, CVG 76. Simply gorgeous!

[cloudy72]

High was only 74 here - a beauty!

[MVWxObserver]

Hoping that Fri 9/22 looks great for my folks and I moving to our catalpa-style house in south Greenville.

**Please be dry for our furniture and other items**

[tron777]

Good morning all! 53 IMBY this morning! No changes to the call / forecast that I have been posting. When it is dry and quiet the forecasting is fairly easy.

[tron777]

The longer term GFS is showing some cut off lows and a more active pattern developing from 9/23 on. The GEFS agrees showing troughing over the Pacific NW with ridging north of us over Canada. That is a good recipe for cut off lows. EPS agrees as well. The CMC has the cut off well south of us by Day 10 and the Euro has it over the S Plains. The problems that the models will have is speed and placement of this system not only thanks to the 500 MB pattern that I just described, but also what is to become Nigel in the tropics will also make a run at the East Coast before potentially recurving back out to sea. What kind of interaction will there be between the cut off low and tropical system? Should be interesting to watch the models over the next week to 10 days. Our pattern looks to be fairly quiet overall until then.

[tron777]

D0 is making a come back on the drought monitor. This should come as no shock to anyone.





BG's blog video in progress:

[MVWxObserver]

The longer term GFS is showing some cut off lows and a more active pattern developing from 9/23 on. The GEFS agrees showing troughing over the Pacific NW with ridging north of us over Canada. That is a good recipe for cut off lows. EPS agrees as well. The CMC has the cut off well south of us by Day 10 and the Euro has it over the S Plains. The problems that the models will have is speed and placement of this system not only thanks to the 500 MB pattern that I just described, but also what is to become Nigel in the tropics will also make a run at the East Coast before potentially recurving back out to sea. What kind of interaction will there be between the cut off low and tropical system? Should be interesting to watch the models over the next week to 10 days. Our pattern looks to be fairly quiet overall until then.

Glad its the 23rd onward Bro.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... i=89978449

Latest drought monitor map for the entire USA 9/14.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS continues to look quiet until we get to next weekend 9/23-9/25 time frame. It is still showing more cut off low potential and a more active pattern developing as well. Hopefully the model is onto something instead of on something. 12Z GEFS shows below avg precip until the day 10-15 period where near normal precip starts to arrive here and above normal to our West. So far Eric, the 22nd looks just fine Bro.

[winterstormjoe]

Today's 12Z GFS continues to look quiet until we get to next weekend 9/23-9/25 time frame. It is still showing more cut off low potential and a more active pattern developing as well. Hopefully the model is onto something instead of on something. 12Z GEFS shows below avg precip until the day 10-15 period where near normal precip starts to arrive here and above normal to our West. So far Eric, the 22nd looks just fine Bro.

And I'm hoping on some good weather on the first full weekend of October for camping in Rising Sun IN. The weather we're having right now would be excellent.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS continues to look quiet until we get to next weekend 9/23-9/25 time frame. It is still showing more cut off low potential and a more active pattern developing as well. Hopefully the model is onto something instead of on something. 12Z GEFS shows below avg precip until the day 10-15 period where near normal precip starts to arrive here and above normal to our West. So far Eric, the 22nd looks just fine Bro.

And I'm hoping on some good weather on the first full weekend of October for camping in Rising Sun IN. The weather we're having right now would be excellent.

That's a little too far out for me to gauge right now but at some point during the first 10 days of October, I expect a colder shot of air to come in. We shall see how the timing works out if it even happens.

[tron777]

12Z Euro this afternoon shows the small rain chance for Sunday, then it looks to be a little slower then the GFS with next weekend's system (near or after Day 10) but that is to be expected this far out. So overall folks, we continue the quiet weather pattern for probably another 10 days then we'll see where things stand.

Currently another beauty with 77 as of 3pm at CVG with dews in the middle to upper 40s!

[MVWxObserver]

Reached 78 in CVG and 75 both DAY / CMH today.