tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 9:45 am
No hail and not too much wind here. Just a nice rain event with some thunder and some very vivid lightning!
Same here and getting that last round at the moment. Going to a very steamy day and where there be any leftover boundaries. Models were a little to far east with the round this morning and with cloud cover further south and west going to hard to get past the low 90's. Still going 94 but that is quite the climb because of the late start of the heating process. Again I still believe Friday will be the worse day in terms of temp and humidity and believe some thundershowers will form late in the day and evening. Saturday we have the front through here but it can take time to get the coolest or air in here so a day in the upper 80's seems possible but then we will get the push of cooler air in here later Saturday through mid-week
In addition to the Fri PM chance, some guidance is hinting at another round tracking from the NE to the SW, like this current activity has done. This would be for tomorrow morning so it's something to keep an eye on for sure to see if that occurs or not. If yes, we may only see the low 90s tomorrow also.
I was about to ask that question if there was chance of another round tomorrow morning.
When I got to work in Fairfield this morning, my coworkers said that it was pretty bad out here earlier. So, the further NE you were the worse the storms were. Still a light rain here, but already seeing clearing to the north.
Rain is over and the sky is starting to brighten. May guess a very quick recovery between 10a-2pm and would not be surprised at all if we are at 90 degree at CVG by then. Then how high do we go between 2p-6p.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 10:31 am
Rain is over and the sky is starting to brighten. May guess a very quick recovery between 10a-2pm and would not be surprised at all if we are at 90 degree at CVG by then. Then how high do we go between 2p-6p.
No doubt Tim. Once the sun comes out, the temps will sky rocket for sure. Here is the latest visible satellite shot. As you can see, it won't take too long for the sun to come back out.
1kmv.gif
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12Z NAM and HRRR both show nothing tomorrow morning. Both models pop convection along the boundary just S of the CVG Metro in NKY. The storms drop into Central KY. This is for tomorrow afternoon and evening. HRRR also shows a batch of convection for the Tri-state after midnight at some point Fri night / wee hours of Sat morning. NAM showed nothing. I think it is best to keep an eye on radar and go from there to be honest.
New 12Z GFS is coming in hot off the presses and it isn't too thrilled about rainfall at all during this period until Sat morning.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 11:59 am
12Z NAM and HRRR both show nothing tomorrow morning. Both models pop convection along the boundary just S of the CVG Metro in NKY. The storms drop into Central KY. This is for tomorrow afternoon and evening. HRRR also shows a batch of convection for the Tri-state after midnight at some point Fri night / wee hours of Sat morning. NAM showed nothing. I think it is best to keep an eye on radar and go from there to be honest.
New 12Z GFS is coming in hot off the presses and it isn't too thrilled about rainfall at all during this period until Sat morning.
Yeah, I'm just going to count my winnings from this morning and be happy. GFS keeps wanting to get a little wet at the end of it's runs, but we've seen that before! Lol
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 11:59 am
12Z NAM and HRRR both show nothing tomorrow morning. Both models pop convection along the boundary just S of the CVG Metro in NKY. The storms drop into Central KY. This is for tomorrow afternoon and evening. HRRR also shows a batch of convection for the Tri-state after midnight at some point Fri night / wee hours of Sat morning. NAM showed nothing. I think it is best to keep an eye on radar and go from there to be honest.
New 12Z GFS is coming in hot off the presses and it isn't too thrilled about rainfall at all during this period until Sat morning.
Yeah, I'm just going to count my winnings from this morning and be happy. GFS keeps wanting to get a little wet at the end of it's runs, but we've seen that before! Lol
Right on Joe! I am very pleased with the rains this morning. The GFS is trying to get the tropics involved down in the Gulf which may or may not happen from this distance.
dce wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 1:26 pm
With the recovery time from the rain this morning, heat warning criteria of 3 straight hours might not come to fruition.
Definitely a good chance of that happening. An advisory would probably be best at this time if we even make that. Currently 81 with a dew of 72 as of 1:45pm at CVG. Wondering now if we even make it to 90??? I would gladly take a temp bust. I don't think anyone would complain.
12Z Euro has a spotty storm possible midday to early Friday afternoon for the Tri-state. A better chance occurs midday to early afternoon on Saturday. Pick your model, pick your rain chance at this point. As I mentioned earlier, best thing to do is watch the radar and adjust the forecast as needed.
ILN had this to say in their late morning update:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A decaying nocturnal MCS, as seen on radar loops and warming IR
cloud tops, continues to move from northeast to southwest through
the area this morning. The MCS should eventually dissipate by late
morning, but the remnant cloud shield and cold pool will likely
impact high temperatures and heat headlines today.
The updated forecast highs have been adjusted downward in an attempt
to capture the impact of the MCS. The heat headlines still remain
untouched for now since there is some potential for the heat index
to approach 105 (Excessive Heat Warning) along and west of I-75
since the 1200z ILN sounding shows the cold pool is surprisingly
shallow (at least at ILN). In fact, at or near record 850 hPa
temperatures around 21 C were observed despite the convection. Any
diurnal mixing that commences once the sun comes out from behind the
clouds should help to mix into the warm air aloft and quickly lead
to rising surface temperatures. Plenty of near surface layer
moisture will accompany the rising temperatures thanks to advection
from the southwest and saturated soils from this morning`s rainfall.
Areas east of I-75 and especially near the Columbus metro will have
the hardest time reaching heat headlines (Heat Advisory) since the
cloud shield and cold pool is likely thicker in those areas.
The main takeaway from this forecast is that temperatures and dew
points still have potential to rise quickly once clouds dissipate
later this morning especially west of I-75. Despite forecast highs
being be at slightly "cooler" than forecasted yesterday, heat
impacts may still be felt this afternoon. Adjustments to heat
headlines continue to be considered.
Wx friends / forecasters like Bryan Polovka, Brian Ivey, Mark Spencer e.g. etc. are under an Enhanced Risk for today in northern OH.
...SUMMARY...
A swath of severe thunderstorms appears increasingly likely to occur across parts of southern Lower Michigan through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Damaging winds with localized significant severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph along with a few tornadoes should be the primary hazards.
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Last edited by MVWxObserver on Thu Aug 24, 2023 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Looking ahead into next week... The next front moves in sometime in that Tues night or Wed timeframe. Rain chances look pretty spotty at this time, but cooler air will move in behind it for a few days with the potential of highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s kind of deal. Then all eyes are on the tropics to see how it will influence the pattern as we roll into September. It's hard to say from this distance if any big heat returns or if the usual pattern (+PNA) continues. It could go either way depending on the tropics.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 2:37 pm
Looking ahead into next week... The next front moves in sometime in that Tues night or Wed timeframe. Rain chances look pretty spotty at this time, but cooler air will move in behind it for a few days with the potential of highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s kind of deal. Then all eyes are on the tropics to see how it will influence the pattern as we roll into September. It's hard to say from this distance if any big heat returns or if the usual pattern (+PNA) continues. It could go either way depending on the tropics.
Well 94 not happening. No doubt it took a little longer than expected to get the clouds out of the way. The problem with the rain is the humidity is bad with a dew around 75 so feel like temp is in the upper 90's. Like the look of next week and again the Atlantic is having a hard time in getting a storm to really mature and head close to the USA so if that keeps up maybe we can stay away from the September heat this year.
young pup wrote: ↑Thu Aug 24, 2023 8:43 am
Got 2 to 2.3 inches in two rain gauges. AEP did an emergency shut down at my brothers last night at midnight. Taking him a generator now. Be prepared for rolling black out in your neighborhood the next couple of days.
JP good and bad news with the needed rainfall but shut downs are not so good. You have been in a much better spot this week with somewhat cooler temps and better chances of rain as you are on the extreme eastern edge of the ridge. I don't ever remember seeing a rolling back out in our area.
hey Tim sorry for the late reply. Been a crazy day. Turns out he was gettling conflicting messages from AEP. One was rolling black outs, another was a substation issue, another was weather related. But the power went off at midnight and the storms didn't move in until after 2am???? He still doesn't know what happened. Power finally came back on at 1:30 this afternoon. I got him some power with the generator so he wouldn't lose the food in the fridge and freezer.
Saw lots of standing water down near him and even say a tree blown over. blocking a driveway. Things are drying out the ground was soft this afternoon. Got some work in and all is good now.
I am very pleased with the rains this morning. The GFS is trying to get the tropics involved down in the Gulf which may or may not happen from this distance.
Turns out he was gettling conflicting messages from AEP. One was rolling black outs, another was a substation issue, another was weather related. But the power went off at midnight and the storms didn't move in until after 2am???? He still doesn't know what happened. Power finally came back on at 1:30 this afternoon. I got him some power with the generator so he wouldn't lose the food in the fridge and freezer. 