tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:06 am
Good Morning Les. Euro went towards what it had on Saturday for the track. My biggest problem is finding enough cold air to work into the system to bring us snow no matter what the track. No front end snows of course and since the system is progressive getting enough cold air on the back side before precip is over could be tough. Rainfall totals look nice especially for a system that is progressive. Kind of systems you get those quick flash floods because rainfall totals can be heavy for a 6 hour period.
Looking further out and most show the nao and ao going negative so that is a good sign and hopefully just getting the pna to get neutral for a spell will help. Still rooting for that one big snow and then spring can take over.
I am seeing the EPO going negative as well. After March 10th hopefully we'll get something to look at that stays around on the modeling inside of Day 5.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Gfs is even further west as the high in Ontario is further east. Just to add on this post and if this continue to be further west then the heavier rains will be further west and north as well.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Even if we don't see t-storms, strong winds and heavy rain appears likely for this Friday. After 3/10, the EPO really tanks... Maybe 3-10-3/17 is our window? -NAO too. Hopefully the PNA can rise towards neutral. MJO should be in Phase 8 by then also at a high amplitude.
Good morning all! We'll see the 70s to begin March on Wed. Showers t-storms late Wed into Wed evening. A break Thurs, then our heavy rain and wind maker Thurs night and Fri. 1-2"+ of rain for most folks. No real shot of cold air behind that system either. The changes to the pattern should come as we approach mid March. Sometime after the 10th due to better MJO Phase, -EPO -NAO starts to decay. We'll see guys. The way this winter has gone nothing has been easy accept to forecast warmth.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:40 am
Good morning all! We'll see the 70s to begin March on Wed. Showers t-storms late Wed into Wed evening. A break Thurs, then our heavy rain and wind maker Thurs night and Fri. 1-2"+ of rain for most folks. No real shot of cold air behind that system either. The changes to the pattern should come as we approach mid March. Sometime after the 10th due to better MJO Phase, -EPO -NAO starts to decay. We'll see guys. The way this winter has gone nothing has been easy accept to forecast warmth.
Good Morning Les and the forecast looks great and another wind maker in the works. After today 2 months in the books and we will be about 8 degrees above normal for the year and slightly above normal in terms of rainfall but well below normal in terms of snowfall since January 1st.
Only long range thought to add is that all Ensembles now as well as the Euro Weeklies are showing a colder pattern from 3/10 onwards and it lasts for 2-3 weeks. This is not a forecast just posting what the data is showing. The MJO is strongly in Phase 8, west based -NAO begins to decay. But we gain the Pacific. If the -WPO / -EPO combo is real, it's going to get cold. Models are showing blocking across the top with a coast to coast trough, ala below normal temps for most of the country. With the active STJ and these potent lows we keep seeing, if the Pacific teleconnections are correct, cold will get injected into the pattern.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:44 am
Only long range thought to add is that all Ensembles now as well as the Euro Weeklies are showing a colder pattern from 3/10 onwards and it lasts for 2-3 weeks. This is not a forecast just posting what the data is showing. The MJO is strongly in Phase 8, west based -NAO begins to decay. But we gain the Pacific. If the -WPO / -EPO combo is real, it's going to get cold. Models are showing blocking across the top with a coast to coast trough, ala below normal temps for most of the country. With the active STJ and these potent lows we keep seeing, if the Pacific teleconnections are correct, cold will get injected into the pattern.
Normals for mid month+- are around 51 and 32 and it looks like atm models are showing about 6-10+-degrees below norms, so a lot of low to mid 40s for highs and low to mid 20s for lows
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Hoping the colder air does make into much of the country and this will hopefully give the south central states a better shot at rainfall. The west is getting plenty of rain and snow this winter season but in the middle of the country not so much. Heat ridges build more quickly where the ground is dry and this is bad news for Texas and Oklahoma in May unless we can get some decent rains over the next 45 days. Feel if the heat does arrive early there we could see an early heat wave for us in late May or early June and those tend to last longer as we get into mid-summer rainfall is more isolated at best. Still to early and lets see how the pattern plays out but though I would love to see some snow here I rather have the decent rains down there looking long term.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:44 am
Only long range thought to add is that all Ensembles now as well as the Euro Weeklies are showing a colder pattern from 3/10 onwards and it lasts for 2-3 weeks. This is not a forecast just posting what the data is showing. The MJO is strongly in Phase 8, west based -NAO begins to decay. But we gain the Pacific. If the -WPO / -EPO combo is real, it's going to get cold. Models are showing blocking across the top with a coast to coast trough, ala below normal temps for most of the country. With the active STJ and these potent lows we keep seeing, if the Pacific teleconnections are correct, cold will get injected into the pattern.
Normals for mid month+- are around 51 and 32 and it looks like atm models are showing about 6-10+-degrees below norms, so a lot of low to mid 40s for highs and low to mid 20s for lows
Agreed... we would need a nighttime event for sure or have a colder air mass then what is currently being shown.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:42 am
Hoping the colder air does make into much of the country and this will hopefully give the south central states a better shot at rainfall. The west is getting plenty of rain and snow this winter season but in the middle of the country not so much. Heat ridges build more quickly where the ground is dry and this is bad news for Texas and Oklahoma in May unless we can get some decent rains over the next 45 days. Feel if the heat does arrive early there we could see an early heat wave for us in late May or early June and those tend to last longer as we get into mid-summer rainfall is more isolated at best. Still to early and lets see how the pattern plays out but though I would love to see some snow here I rather have the decent rains down there looking long term.
Hopefully our snow window is 3/10 thru 3/25 or something to that effect. We're a bit too far out in time to know for sure but we can start with those goal posts and narrow them as we get closer in time.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:42 am
Hoping the colder air does make into much of the country and this will hopefully give the south central states a better shot at rainfall. The west is getting plenty of rain and snow this winter season but in the middle of the country not so much. Heat ridges build more quickly where the ground is dry and this is bad news for Texas and Oklahoma in May unless we can get some decent rains over the next 45 days. Feel if the heat does arrive early there we could see an early heat wave for us in late May or early June and those tend to last longer as we get into mid-summer rainfall is more isolated at best. Still to early and lets see how the pattern plays out but though I would love to see some snow here I rather have the decent rains down there looking long term.
I agree Tim , that area of Texas/Oklahoma has had dust storm after dust storm as they along with everyone else have had non stop high winds. Not sure either if and when the nee pattern sets up if their luck changes . The new pattern and jet will be zonal west to east but further south than usual of course, so they could get in on more moisture. An area that I'm more confident in getting more moisture is the south and SE as they'll be near that jet streak and baroclinic zone in mid March and beyond
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Good Morning and Brian's video was enough for me to look at the pattern in the 1970's compared to recent years. He mentioned the record high in Louisville on March 1 was in 1976. Many factors go into how future weather events happen but I did look at the 70's to see how El Nino and La Nina played out and as many know we started out mild early in the 70's only to end up with one of the coldest periods in the late 70s;
La Nina in the 70's - 1970-71-moderate 1971-72 and 1974-74 -weak 1973-74 and 1975-75- strong
El Nino in the 70's - 1972-73- strong 1976-77 and 1977-78 and 1979-80- weak
So will this pattern repeat and if so then El Nino could return for a few years. I understand many changes in the ocean temps and that could no doubt change the pattern but interesting to see the record high on March 1 in 1976 and that could happen again March 1 2023 at the end of a La Nina.
Just food for thought and since there is no tracking of snow at the moment what the heck.
We should start seeing more fantasy snow chances too in the next week to 10 days assuming the MJO gets to Phase 8 as scheduled and also assuming the -WPO / -EPO combo is real.
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:42 am
Hoping the colder air does make into much of the country and this will hopefully give the south central states a better shot at rainfall. The west is getting plenty of rain and snow this winter season but in the middle of the country not so much. Heat ridges build more quickly where the ground is dry and this is bad news for Texas and Oklahoma in May unless we can get some decent rains over the next 45 days. Feel if the heat does arrive early there we could see an early heat wave for us in late May or early June and those tend to last longer as we get into mid-summer rainfall is more isolated at best. Still to early and lets see how the pattern plays out but though I would love to see some snow here I rather have the decent rains down there looking long term.
I agree Tim , that area of Texas/Oklahoma has had dust storm after dust storm as they along with everyone else have had non stop high winds. Not sure either if and when the nee pattern sets up if their luck changes . The new pattern and jet will be zonal west to east but further south than usual of course, so they could get in on more moisture. An area that I'm more confident in getting more moisture is the south and SE as they'll be near that jet streak and baroclinic zone in mid March and beyond
Bgoney, I agree and down in Greenville,SC since I have been down there for almost 4 years they have been so far above normal in rainfall and though it keeps temps from getting out of hand in the summer the humidity is much like you see in Florida.
Record high for tomorrow March 1st at CVG is 71 degrees set back in Tim's favorite year 1976. We should be able to beat that as long as increasing clouds don't occur too early.
12Z GFS has a 977 MB low over STL Fri morning with heavy rain in our hoods as the warm front works into the ILN CWA and lifts northward. I would already plan on another wind advisory being issued for this event. 2" of rain or more is not out of the question and the guidance hasn't changed much in recent days. I think I mentioned 1-2"+ for everyone and that's a good call this far out but may need to up the bottom part of that range in days to come provided that the strength of the low is real. Not sure how long we'll be in the warm sector. We were in it much longer then expected and got the needed CAPE thanks to the sun for yesterdays event. We'll have to see how long we get for into the warm sector for Friday. Do we see a similar dry slot for the boundary layer to mix down and get some CAPE or will it mainly be a cloudy, rainy, and windy day with little in the way of t-storms? We shall see! SPC currently targeting the TN Valley and points south on their Day 4 Outlook.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 10:56 am
12Z GFS has a 977 MB low over STL Fri morning with heavy rain in our hoods as the warm front works into the ILN CWA and lifts northward. I would already plan on another wind advisory being issued for this event. 2" of rain or more is not out of the question and the guidance hasn't changed much in recent days. I think I mentioned 1-2"+ for everyone and that's a good call this far out but may need to up the bottom part of that range in days to come provided that the strength of the low is real. Not sure how long we'll be in the warm sector. We were in it much longer then expected and got the needed CAPE thanks to the sun for yesterdays event. We'll have to see how long we get for into the warm sector for Friday. Do we see a similar dry slot for the boundary layer to mix down and get some CAPE or will it mainly be a cloudy, rainy, and windy day with little in the way of t-storms? We shall see! SPC currently targeting the TN Valley and points south on their Day 4 Outlook.
Great Post Les!!! If we stay in the rain longer Friday morning that may help in keeping severe weather down somewhat. The further southeast you live the better shot of severe weather imo. 1-2 looks like a good forecast and that could be area wide which is nice since we are heading into the rainy season. Going to put down some grass see on Wednesday so this means I will probably see 6 inches of rain to wash it away or 0 and need to get the hose out which is stored away.
We should be able to beat that as long as increasing clouds don't occur too early.