March 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

12Z EPS continues to be well NW of the OP Euro with the low tracking from N LA thru N AL into NE TN as a 997 MB low. Then off to the east thru NC. That's a nice track with a lot of moisture too. Rain to a heavy wet snow by Fri night. Not a bad run at all. As usual, we shall see. There is still plenty of time for something to go wrong.

Les seems the Euro has been the one going back and forth and not sure if that is good or bad.

[tron777]

12Z EPS continues to be well NW of the OP Euro with the low tracking from N LA thru N AL into NE TN as a 997 MB low. Then off to the east thru NC. That's a nice track with a lot of moisture too. Rain to a heavy wet snow by Fri night. Not a bad run at all. As usual, we shall see. There is still plenty of time for something to go wrong.

Les seems the Euro has been the one going back and forth and not sure if that is good or bad.

OP GFS has been the most consistent for a nice hit. GEFS is a bit too NW. EPS looks great. CMC is the furthest south with the OP Euro in between. This is as of the 12Z suite. Not that any of the models of done well this winter, the Euro has lost its king status IMO. Tons of time to watch of course but I am hitting the posting hard on this system since we have not had accumulating snow since 1/30.

[tron777]

18Z GFS still coming in way amp'ed up and a bit faster too. Heaviest snow north of Cincy but we still get some on the back side. 18Z GEFS has bumped back south with a KY / TN boarder track thru S WV into VA. I have noticed some runs have a more west to east track which is better in terms of getting more snow for us, versus SW to NE which would bring in more warm air and more rain and less snow. Still way too early to know exactly how this thing is going to go down Thurs night thru Fri night. Right now, I like rain Thurs night into Fri changing to heavy snow late Fri into Fri night. Taking a model blend, that would be the outcome at this early stage in the game.

[Bgoney]

Still think heavy rains for the OV are the most likely threat with this system

[tron777]

Still think heavy rains for the OV are the most likely threat with this system

That has definitely been the seasonal trend. Also something else that has been the seasonal trend has been that these super amp'ed up solutions turn out to be total garbage so this thing could easily turn out to be a southern slider with a weaker low. We need a strong low for dynamic cooling for the flip to snow yet at the same time you don't want it so strong that it cuts too far to the NW. If it happens to be weaker then you could miss out on the precip altogether or it would be all rain since you wouldn't have any dynamic cooling at all. There's a lot of different forms this storm could take being this far away. My last was pointing out the current model blend.

[airwolf76]

00Z EURO showing quite a snowstorm next Saturday

[tron777]

Mainly a rain event if the GFS is right. This model keeping showing a stronger and stronger low with every run! CMC is weaker / SE for a better shot at snow. The Euro as Charles mentioned is outstanding! GEFS agrees with the OP GFS. The EPS follows the OP Euro. The GFS has clearly lead the way so far with this system but it continues to phase in the northern energy to quickly so it's a much stronger low and it will be forced to cut. The Euro and CMC phase in the energy later so the system is more SE and thus, rain to a heavy wet snow for us. The trends the lasts several winters have been for these strong lows to weaken. Will that be the case this time or will we get the stronger system for a cold ass rain? We are down to Day 6 now so tomorrow and Tuesday's runs ought to be telling.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and nice to see something to follow in the upcoming week. Hopefully by Tuesday the models come together on the late week storm. No doubt the GOM is open for business later this week so moisture is not a problem. Since we have no true arctic air though it will be colder to the north we need to be in almost a perfect spot to get heavy snow. Timing of course is important and during the day in early March just makes it that much harder to produce snow to the surface. Snow ratios will be low so you may see 8-1 or lower and even .5 inches of liquid may only lead to 2 inches of snow with this kind of pattern and with the warmer surfaces for this time of year it makes sense.

Btw somebody in my neighborhood mowed the grass on Friday.

[young pup]

The gfs has been bonkers with snow totals. I can deal with the euro and canadian runs. Be interesting to see if the gfs comes back south after going north.

[tron777]

12Z GFS now has a major cutter, no snow for anyone. GEFS is coming north too. It's still not as bad as the OP though keeping the low barely SE of us. CMC is rain from the river on south, snow to the north with a low coming into SE KY that dies and transfers the energy to a new low for the East Coast. Sigh... just can't catch a break.

[Bgoney]

Mods are still playing bouncy ball with the low, and my thoughts haven't changed with most likely outcome. I like a track somewhere between Lexington and Indy, and neither is good for appreciable accumulations and snow seekers for cincy area

[tron777]

I know our luck this winter and it hasn't been good. You watch... the heaviest snow will be from STL to IND to TOL / DTW. Or it'll be even worse and hit Chicago. There is still a chance that this thing weakens considerably but so far the trend has been the opposite.

[tpweather]

The late week storm and still not much in the way of arctic air so the coverage for snow is low. I really don't have an ideal where the system may track and still trying to figure out weakest area it can move into. Still not tons of blocking in place late in the week so the storm should be progressive. The only thing I feel confident about is tons of moisture and if the system was not progressive flooding could be an issue. Still any heavy rain can cause minor flooding in the flood areas but still without snow melt area wide flooding is not easy.

[airwolf76]

i think the GFS is the only one showing a cutter and such a strong Low. hard to make a prediction thats for sure

[tron777]

Just to be clear, I wasn't making a prediction just mainly being sarcastic and a little bitter. In all seriousness we don't yet know but it is not hard to lean cutter due to seasonal trends. NAO just getting going not yet fully established, and MJO not yet in Phase 8.

[tpweather]

Euro is joining the gfs with a stronger and more northwest track.This will no doubt put us in the warmer section and more rainfall.

[tron777]

12Z Euro coming north too...Oh well. Was fun while it lasted. Looks like the cold heavy rain idea is winning out. 2.4" of rain at CVG with temps in the 40s. Lovely...

[tron777]

Too bad the MJO is not in Phase 8 yet. Still in Phase 7 so a cutter unfortunately make sense with the SE ridge still in the drivers seat. If we can get a storm like this in second week of March then it maybe a different story. GFS has been screwing up the SE ridge in the long range to correct once you get in the medium range.

[tpweather]

Les I still believe even with a perfect path we have been just to warm and the ground would have melted much of the snow. Looks like we will get into a colder pattern so hopefully weeks 2 and 3 or March will get us at least one good storm before spring settles in for good.

[Bgoney]

Too bad the MJO is not in Phase 8 yet. Still in Phase 7 so a cutter unfortunately make sense with the SE ridge still in the drivers seat. If we can get a storm like this in second week of March then it maybe a different story. GFS has been screwing up the SE ridge in the long range to correct once you get in the medium range.

I think the third week after the 14th is going to be the better chance, the pattern still looks near normal temp wise the second week , got a ways to go before the pattern digests the phase 8

[tron777]

Les I still believe even with a perfect path we have been just to warm and the ground would have melted much of the snow. Looks like we will get into a colder pattern so hopefully weeks 2 and 3 or March will get us at least one good storm before spring settles in for good.

I would still love to have watched snow falling and it'll be very heavy with a strong low like that. A lot of it is late in the day and at night. Not talking those insane foot plus totals but a 3-6" event seriously could occur with locally higher amounts. This thing will have a lot of precip as the Gulf is open for business.

[tron777]

Too bad the MJO is not in Phase 8 yet. Still in Phase 7 so a cutter unfortunately make sense with the SE ridge still in the drivers seat. If we can get a storm like this in second week of March then it maybe a different story. GFS has been screwing up the SE ridge in the long range to correct once you get in the medium range.

I think the third week after the 14th is going to be the better chance, the pattern still looks near normal temp wise the second week , got a ways to go before the pattern digests the phase 8

You're right. We are still in the time of year for a big dog. After March it gets tougher but with true arctic air we can get into the U20s to L30s much easier then having to depend on dynamic cooling. All models agree with a long stay in Phase 8 so it should be enough for a pattern changer. Before the Ides of March. A St. Patty's Day snow storm would be cool!

[airwolf76]

ICON is a big hit for the late week storm

[tron777]

GFS is still a cutter. CMC is back to a big hit. GEFS / EPS track it right or just north of us. Euro is a bit south nice hit for IND to Lima / Findley.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Euro went towards what it had on Saturday for the track. My biggest problem is finding enough cold air to work into the system to bring us snow no matter what the track. No front end snows of course and since the system is progressive getting enough cold air on the back side before precip is over could be tough. Rainfall totals look nice especially for a system that is progressive. Kind of systems you get those quick flash floods because rainfall totals can be heavy for a 6 hour period.

Looking further out and most show the nao and ao going negative so that is a good sign and hopefully just getting the pna to get neutral for a spell will help. Still rooting for that one big snow and then spring can take over.