February 2023 Discussion

[Bgoney]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

Broke out the shorts, probably going to grill later, windows are open, frogs on the pond are chirping like crazy, and to top it all off , got a load of manure. February 15th

[tron777]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

Les, something is going to give sooner or later, but it'll probably be a rainy/cool dreary type scenario come April/May and when it does get real cold it will be dry with frost/freeze warnings by then. LOL

I'm still holding out hope for March despite many of the negatives. The SE ridge, or Gulf ridge, etc isn't going away anytime soon so we'll just have to see what happens with that in time. The latest Teleconnection forecasts are showing a -PNA which you'd expect with a potential spike in the PNA late Feb / early March before dropping again. Also seeing the AO and NAO becoming more neutral by that time as well. That could be a potential window for us. It's all I've got right now.

[tpweather]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

Les, something is going to give sooner or later, but it'll probably be a rainy/cool dreary type scenario come April/May and when it does get real cold it will be dry with frost/freeze warnings by then. LOL

I'm still holding out hope for March despite many of the negatives. The SE ridge, or Gulf ridge, etc isn't going away anytime soon so we'll just have to see what happens with that in time. The latest Teleconnection forecasts are showing a -PNA which you'd expect with a potential spike in the PNA late Feb / early March before dropping again. Also seeing the AO and NAO becoming more neutral by that time as well. That could be a potential window for us. It's all I've got right now.

I agree Les and yes we will have some snowfall on the ground to the west and northwest but once you get into later Feb and March that snow can be much easier to melt even with cold temps as the sun will work on melting it much quicker.

[tron777]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

Les, something is going to give sooner or later, but it'll probably be a rainy/cool dreary type scenario come April/May and when it does get real cold it will be dry with frost/freeze warnings by then. LOL

I'm still holding out hope for March despite many of the negatives. The SE ridge, or Gulf ridge, etc isn't going away anytime soon so we'll just have to see what happens with that in time. The latest Teleconnection forecasts are showing a -PNA which you'd expect with a potential spike in the PNA late Feb / early March before dropping again. Also seeing the AO and NAO becoming more neutral by that time as well. That could be a potential window for us. It's all I've got right now.

I agree Les and yes we will have some snowfall on the ground to the west and northwest but once you get into later Feb and March that snow can be much easier to melt even with cold temps as the sun will work on melting it much quicker.

Exactly Tim. Anyone looking for sustained cold and snow is out of luck. IMO that is done until next season. If we do see anything it will melt almost as quickly as it came which is typical anyway of late season snows. Even the big March of 2008 storm, a few days after the storm, the snow was gone and we had temps back into the 60s. I looked at CVG's stats for that month and it started warm and wet. We had a record high of 71 on 3/3. High was 49 on 3/6 the day before the storm. Then, we had a 2 day cold snap on the 7-8th in which the snow storm occurred. 40s for a few days after that then the 60s and that was all she wrote.

[Bgoney]

Can't shake out of this 500mb pattern

Screenshot_20230215-155846_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Still holding at 72 as of 4pm at CVG. Our record is at 73 set back in 1945. DAY has broken the record of 69 set back in 1954 as they are currently reporting 70 degrees. At CMH, the record is 70 set back in 1954 and they had 72 last hour so another new record there as well.

[young pup]

Took the plow off the main truck today. So that will make it snow. Not ready to get rid of the bulk spreader yet as I don't want to block the plows in if they should be needed. lol Set another record today if the hourly reports are correct.

[tron777]

Can't shake out of this 500mb pattern

Screenshot_20230215-155846_Chrome.jpg

No Sir. The ridging in the N ATL is too far East. Need it to retrograde more to the West over Greenland so that's one issue. The second is the Gulf ridge. Look at how much more expansive it is. That is another problem. The only way I see something being able to work is to have a monster high in Southern Canada. That would be able to push the baroclinic boundary more to the south. You need something in the 1050s MB to really press against the Gulf ridge to suppress it more. Anything in the 1030s or even 1040s may not be enough. The OP GFS after the 24th tries to do that with a 1053 MB high coming in but it is the GFS after all and it's still in the long range also. Really, we don't have any strong signals yet of change. The SSW is trying as is the MJO but trying and actually accomplishing something are two different things.

[tron777]

Took the plow off the main truck today. So that will make it snow. Not ready to get rid of the bulk spreader yet as I don't want to block the plows in if they should be needed. lol Set another record today if the hourly reports are correct.

I for one appreciate you doing this JP. Maybe it'll help!

[tpweather]

Can't shake out of this 500mb pattern

Screenshot_20230215-155846_Chrome.jpg

No Sir. The ridging in the N ATL is too far East. Need it to retrograde more to the West over Greenland so that's one issue. The second is the Gulf ridge. Look at how much more expansive it is. That is another problem. The only way I see something being able to work is to have a monster high in Southern Canada. That would be able to push the baroclinic boundary more to the south. You need something in the 1050s MB to really press against the Gulf ridge to suppress it more. Anything in the 1030s or even 1040s may not be enough. The OP GFS after the 24th tries to do that with a 1053 MB high coming in but it is the GFS after all and it's still in the long range also. Really, we don't have any strong signals yet of change. The SSW is trying as is the MJO but trying and actually accomplishing something are two different things.

Great Posts from both of you. What a terrible winter for us snow lovers even with a blizzard and temp near -10 at one time. The winners this season in terms of winter weather has been the western USA and eastern Asia. The losers have been the eastern USA and western Europe and even eastern Europe until the last few weeks had a nice mild winter. Antarctica had their coldest January temp ever so it had to balance out somewhere on earth.

[tron777]

Can't shake out of this 500mb pattern

Screenshot_20230215-155846_Chrome.jpg

No Sir. The ridging in the N ATL is too far East. Need it to retrograde more to the West over Greenland so that's one issue. The second is the Gulf ridge. Look at how much more expansive it is. That is another problem. The only way I see something being able to work is to have a monster high in Southern Canada. That would be able to push the baroclinic boundary more to the south. You need something in the 1050s MB to really press against the Gulf ridge to suppress it more. Anything in the 1030s or even 1040s may not be enough. The OP GFS after the 24th tries to do that with a 1053 MB high coming in but it is the GFS after all and it's still in the long range also. Really, we don't have any strong signals yet of change. The SSW is trying as is the MJO but trying and actually accomplishing something are two different things.

Great Posts from both of you. What a terrible winter for us snow lovers even with a blizzard and temp near -10 at one time. The winners this season in terms of winter weather has been the western USA and eastern Asia. The losers have been the eastern USA and western Europe and even eastern Europe until the last few weeks had a nice mild winter. Antarctica had their coldest January temp ever so it had to balance out somewhere on earth.

Thank you Tim and you're exactly right. MSP and Madison, WI on West has done well. Even Las Vegas had light snow yesterday and has had more snow this season then NYC or Philly as an example. Pretty tough! I keep seeing social media lighting up with "here comes the March to Remember!" "Give it a week, winter is coming back..." Yadda yadda yadda Well... as we've talked about there are some signs but nothing definitive IMO at this point. I certainly would not be honking or sounding the horns right now if I lived along and South of I-70 or even I-80. I assume Bgoney agrees and you may agree also.

[young pup]

Took the plow off the main truck today. So that will make it snow. Not ready to get rid of the bulk spreader yet as I don't want to block the plows in if they should be needed. lol Set another record today if the hourly reports are correct.

I for one appreciate you doing this JP. Maybe it'll help!

You're Welcome. Should have done it a long time ago. lol

[tron777]

Believe me... I'll sound the horns when necessary. You guys know me. I am constantly watching for any positive signs or stronger signals indicating that we're back in the game. I'll be the first one to tell you what I see and when I see it. You can bank on that. Right now, the rest of Feb doesn't look very good. End of the month, maybe. Early March also a maybe. That's the best I can do at this point.

[tron777]

Took the plow off the main truck today. So that will make it snow. Not ready to get rid of the bulk spreader yet as I don't want to block the plows in if they should be needed. lol Set another record today if the hourly reports are correct.

I for one appreciate you doing this JP. Maybe it'll help!

You're Welcome. Should have done it a long time ago. lol

Yeah like right after the Christmas Blizzard!

[tron777]

Missed the record by 1 degree. 72 also here for today. 8.3" was our daily snowfall record from that glorious pattern we had in February of 2010. Winters of yore...

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20230215-174013_Twitter.jpg

[tron777]

We have seen where tropical cyclones can impact the progression of the MJO. We have seen that occur in the West PAC a few times. I bring this up because there is a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean named Freddy which is already the equivalent to a major hurricane on our side of the globe. This storm has roughly another week over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean before making landfall potentially in Madagascar. I only post this here and not in our tropical area of the forum since it pertains to our ongoing MJO discussion.

Freddy.jpg

[tron777]

Screenshot_20230215-174013_Twitter.jpg

That map is not a surprise but it's pretty darn disgusting all the same.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG and CMH reached 72 and DAY 71.

Currently 55 here in G'ville.

[young pup]

Took the plow off the main truck today. So that will make it snow. Not ready to get rid of the bulk spreader yet as I don't want to block the plows in if they should be needed. lol Set another record today if the hourly reports are correct.

I for one appreciate you doing this JP. Maybe it'll help!

You're Welcome. Should have done it a long time ago. lol

Yeah like right after the Christmas Blizzard!

Ha Ha. I didn't even get to plow with it then. Only got to use it as a salt truck. The plow wouldn't work so I used the back up to plow and that salt with. lol Then it went back in to get reapaired.

[young pup]

Screenshot_20230215-174013_Twitter.jpg

That is very ugly for the Middle part of February.

[tron777]

This map is even uglier.

Fugly.jpg

[tron777]

Wonderful AFD from earlier this afternoon from the boys highlighting the uncertainty in the severe wx for tomorrow. Basically bringing up the same things we have already stated.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Weak ridging will be nudged out of the area at the start of the
period as an upper level closed low moves northeast toward the
Ohio Valley carrying an embedded weak shortwave. At the surface,
the associated larger low will be located by the OK/TX
panhandle region with its warm front extending
east/northeastward. A sharp temperature and wind gradient will
exist along this boundary with the northern half of the CWA
experiencing overnight low temperatures in the low 40s and
light winds out of the north while the southern half of the CWA
experiencing lows in the mid 50s, winds out of the south. Heavy
precipitation begins to impact southern counties during the
early morning hours as the warm front lifts northeast. Some
elevated instability will be present and have included thunder
in the grids.

While heavy rainfall is expected, the system will be
progressive, so hydro concerns are not front and foremost;
although, cannot rule out some ponding on roads/ isolated
flooding where storms may train.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
By 7AM Thursday, the warm frontal boundary will be lifting through
the area and the nose of the LLJ will be encroaching into our
southwest.

Current thinking regarding severe threat.... more robust chances for
severe threat will be around the Tri-State early to late
afternoon. Consistent with these late winter events, instability
is marginal while shear is enhanced. Various hi-res models
suggest that for this particular event (looking in our
southwest), low level and deep layer shear parameters are
considerable, with sfc-1km between 30-40 knots and sfc-6km
between 50-70 knots. A veering, elongated, low level hodograph
indicates an environment favorable for splitting supercells.
This is echoed by a wedge of 0-1 km helicity values around
200-300 m2/s2. There is a large amount of discrepancy between
models on how much instability becomes surface based through the
afternoon hours, and values range anywhere from 200-1000 J/kg.
Looking at SigTor, values hover around 2, with 3 in isolated
areas and SupercellComposite echoes this.

Given the above considerations, the simulated reflectivity
depiction(s) of late afternoon supercell storms seems like a
possible solution, especially if these storms begin to fire in the
open warm sector out ahead of the 22z-ish line of storms. Damaging
winds and/or an isolated tornado would be the main threats with any
stronger convection in this scenario.

Having said this, it is very important to keep in mind the vast
number of uncertainties with this system. Hi-res guidance struggles
with pin-pointing the exact path of the low pressure system, which
could drastically change the set up/ parameters/ timing.
Additionally, some models suggest some late morning
redevelopment in between the early morning and afternoon
convection... should this occur, the atmosphere may get
overturned enough to inhibit strong PM storms. Overall, there is
high uncertainty with this setup/ system.

Storms move east out of the area during the overnight hours and colder
air is ushered in on the backside of the low. Overnight lows
Thursday into Friday drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.

[Bgoney]

We have seen where tropical cyclones can impact the progression of the MJO. We have seen that occur in the West PAC a few times. I bring this up because there is a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean named Freddy which is already the equivalent to a major hurricane on our side of the globe. This storm has roughly another week over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean before making landfall potentially in Madagascar. I only post this here and not in our tropical area of the forum since it pertains to our ongoing MJO discussion.


Freddy.jpg

I just noticed that earlier this evening. If something can go wrong for our winter, it certainly finds a way

[tron777]

We have seen where tropical cyclones can impact the progression of the MJO. We have seen that occur in the West PAC a few times. I bring this up because there is a tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean named Freddy which is already the equivalent to a major hurricane on our side of the globe. This storm has roughly another week over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean before making landfall potentially in Madagascar. I only post this here and not in our tropical area of the forum since it pertains to our ongoing MJO discussion.


Freddy.jpg

I just noticed that earlier this evening. If something can go wrong for our winter, it certainly finds a way

That could be why the GEFS loops it back into Phase 6 by March 1st. We'll see but my optimism for March is slowly dwindling.