February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

Winds are already gusting to 30 mph this morning at CVG with temps in the mid 50s. 70 should be easy, but we may fall short of the record of 73. It'll be close! Then as Bgoney and I have mentioned, how tomorrow morning plays out with the warm front and rainfall will determine how the afternoon plays out ahead of the cold front.

In the extended range, the pattern remains active, but not as warm as what we have been seeing. Majority of the wintry threats continue to be to our north unfortunately. IMO we may have to wait until March unless somehow the baroclinic zone is being modeled too far north which I highly doubt. If that -NAO can form by the end of Feb then it could certainly offset the -PNA some for that to occur.

[Bgoney]

Winds are already gusting to 30 mph this morning at CVG with temps in the mid 50s. 70 should be easy, but we may fall short of the record of 73. It'll be close! Then as Bgoney and I have mentioned, how tomorrow morning plays out with the warm front and rainfall will determine how the afternoon plays out ahead of the cold front.

In the extended range, the pattern remains active, but not as warm as what we have been seeing. Majority of the wintry threats continue to be to our north unfortunately. IMO we may have to wait until March unless somehow the baroclinic zone is being modeled too far north which I highly doubt. If that -NAO can form by the end of Feb then it could certainly offset the -PNA some for that to occur.

Agree with the rest of this month, any significant wintry weather remains north and Northwest.

PV update. Latest readings say we're close to reversal , probably by tomorrow's update. Notice the current chart compared to yesterdays has significantly reduced the downward progression of the winds in that second warming.



The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 2.6 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -23.9 m/s 2018

Screenshot_20230215-075650_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230214-163148_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Winds are already gusting to 30 mph this morning at CVG with temps in the mid 50s. 70 should be easy, but we may fall short of the record of 73. It'll be close! Then as Bgoney and I have mentioned, how tomorrow morning plays out with the warm front and rainfall will determine how the afternoon plays out ahead of the cold front.

In the extended range, the pattern remains active, but not as warm as what we have been seeing. Majority of the wintry threats continue to be to our north unfortunately. IMO we may have to wait until March unless somehow the baroclinic zone is being modeled too far north which I highly doubt. If that -NAO can form by the end of Feb then it could certainly offset the -PNA some for that to occur.

Agree with the rest of this month, any significant wintry weather remains north and Northwest.

PV update. Latest readings say we're close to reversal , probably by tomorrow's update. Notice the current chart compared to yesterdays has significantly reduced the downward progression of the winds in that second warming.



The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 2.6 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -23.9 m/s 2018

Screenshot_20230215-075650_Chrome.jpg
Screenshot_20230214-163148_Chrome.jpg

That is concerning for sure. Another concern is the MJO. Euro hasn't updated yet today but the GEFS and CFS have. Both get it to Phase 8 but then it quickly goes into the COD then re-emerges back into either Phase 5 or 6 by 3/1. That would certainly mean an early spring or a continuation of the spring we've basically had all winter other then like 2 or 3 times. Ugh...

[tron777]

From the boys about tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure will build in briefly early tonight,
allowing dry weather to persist until around midnight, while
winds diminish to under 10 knots. For later tonight, the next
area of low pressure will be advancing from the southwest, with
showers developing across the southern half of the FA in a band
of isentropic lift ahead of a warm front extending east from the
low.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will then spread north across
the entire FA on Thursday. Winds will increase again in the
tight circulation surrounding the low, with gusts close to 30
knots likely. In addition, the threat for severe thunderstorms
will exist from this high shear/low CAPE environment. Favorable
low level shear profiles and low LCLs indicate that isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out, with the Cincinnati/Northern
Kentucky area under the greatest threat. Heavy downpours may add
up to an inch of rainfall in some locations.

While cooling off a few degrees from Wednesday, temperatures
will remain well above normal, with highs ranging from the upper
50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

[Bgoney]

Wow, that's fairly strong language from the boys. I think they're bored with this winter and itching for some excitement

[tron777]

Wow, that's fairly strong language from the boys. I think they're bored with this winter and itching for some excitement

No doubt. It is a highly conditional set up as we've both mentioned. I like the two round possibility that the SPC discussion mentioned but we will just have to wait and see tomorrow morning how it all unfolds. Every once and a while, I still see a model tracking the low further SE since it's weaker versus the N Indy track. Currently the low is ay 998 MB dropping through SW Colorado and into New Mexico. I would suspect that it will eventually emerge from the TX Panhandle (Panhandle hooker system). We're probably going to be seeing a lot of these in the coming weeks if the storm track doesn't change.

[tron777]

12Z NAM and 12Z HRRR soundings are below valid near CVG for tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front.

NAMSounding.png

HRRR Sounding.png

From the 9Z SREF, below are the probability of achieving 500 J/KG of CAPE or more as well as the significant tornado ingredients.

SREF CAPE Prob.png

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

So far from these more short term / mesoscale models, they all have the low much closer to us which is a bit concerning should we get 500 J/Kg of CAPE. Do we get that break to last long enough between the warm front and the cold front? Going to be an interesting day tomorrow for sure.

[tron777]

[Trevor]

I’m not particularly enthused by the potential tomorrow. We shall see, but there are a lot of inhibiting factors in the way that need to be overcome. Not sold. Isolated severe? Sure. Widespread? Not feeling it.

[Trevor]

Now that I said that, look out folks!

[tron777]

I’m not particularly enthused by the potential tomorrow. We shall see, but there are a lot of inhibiting factors in the way that need to be overcome. Not sold. Isolated severe? Sure. Widespread? Not feeling it.

It does look like a messy set up as we've mentioned. It's just one of those things to me where it can go either way. If the more southern low tracks are correct, then we'll see plenty of clouds / rain to reduce the storm threat for sure in the afternoon. I think it's really going to boil down to that to see if we can get 500 J/KG of CAPE or not.

[tron777]

For today... just like last week, sunshine is heating up the boundary layer allowing 30-40 mph gusts to make it down to the surface. Luckily, the pressure gradient isn't as tight as it was last week so we're not looking at any 50-70 mph gusts thankfully. 61 now at CVG with a gust to 33 as of the 10am reading.

[Bgoney]

I’m not particularly enthused by the potential tomorrow. We shall see, but there are a lot of inhibiting factors in the way that need to be overcome. Not sold. Isolated severe? Sure. Widespread? Not feeling it.

It does look like a messy set up as we've mentioned. It's just one of those things to me where it can go either way. If the more southern low tracks are correct, then we'll see plenty of clouds / rain to reduce the storm threat for sure in the afternoon. I think it's really going to boil down to that to see if we can get 500 J/KG of CAPE or not.

DPs will be in the upper 50s, last weeks threat I think they were in the 40s

[tron777]

DPs will be in the upper 50s, last weeks threat I think they were in the 40s

Per SPC mesopage, dews AOA 60 are already over Western TN and starting to get into extreme SW KY as well.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS tracks the low from basically near STL thru IND and into NW Ohio.

[tpweather]

I’m not particularly enthused by the potential tomorrow. We shall see, but there are a lot of inhibiting factors in the way that need to be overcome. Not sold. Isolated severe? Sure. Widespread? Not feeling it.

Good Morning and I agree with your post Trevor. No doubt gusty winds over the next few days and yes sometimes gusts will get towards the threshold for severe weather but I believe the threat overall is isolated in nature. Flooding looks unlikely because of the speed of the system.

[airwolf76]

almost 60 degrees here today and tomorrow even warmer. record warmth perhaps. next week looks fairly warm also. there will be a price to pay for this and it will most likely be next month.

[tron777]

Latest SPC convective outlook for tomorrow has the Enhanced risk from the Cincy Tri-state area and points SW from there. Slight Risk for our I-70 Crew. 70 currently at CVG with a peak gust of 35 mph. 3 more degrees to tie the record, 4 to break it.

In the extended range, GFS keeps all wintry threats mainly north of us as expected thru the end of Feb. Today's CMC run tries to get a little snowy on the 24th. Majority of the GEFS members keep anything north and west of us as well outside of a few rouge members that paint some snow late Feb into early March but that signal is very very weak. Looking like the 12Z Euro is also keeping anything wintry north of us as well.

[Bgoney]

This pretty much sums up 2023

current_temps.png

[tpweather]

This pretty much sums up 2023




current_temps.png

I agree 100p/c and of course down here in Greenville light rain and upper 50's. Since I have been here rainfall has been at least 30p/c above normal and temps about 2-3 degrees below normal. No 100 degree days since I have been here which I would need to look at the stats but that is not normal as they probably average 3-5 each season.

[Bgoney]

Screenshot_20230215-143831_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

[tron777]

1002 MB low over Central TX based on pressure falls looks to move towards OKC later on. Upper low is just east of the 4 Corners region. A nice 120 knot jet streak (if you look at 500 MB analysis) has rounded the base of the trough and should begin to get this system the kick it needs for the surface low to begin deepening as time goes on. Dews are halfway decent (they have mixed out some today) over extreme SW KY and Western TN. I like the low track to be from Central TX > OKC > STL > IND > TOL If correct, we should be in a good spot for severe wx if the warm front doesn't take its time moving northward. How much time do we get in the warm sector is going to be very critical as we continue to state. How tomorrow morning goes should tell us if the severe threat is there or not. Definitely a nowcast for sure as far as tomorrow goes.

[winterstormjoe]

CVG may have briefly hit 72 so far for the high today. Winds still gusting in that 25 to 35 mph range. Other then the wind, it doesn't get much better then this for February since the pattern is not conducive for us snow lovers.

Les, something is going to give sooner or later, but it'll probably be a rainy/cool dreary type scenario come April/May and when it does get real cold it will be dry with frost/freeze warnings by then. LOL

[tpweather]

Bgoney those maps look correct. I do believe the Tornado threat will be south of I-64 and also moisture supply and how much is robbed once storms build further south on Thursday. Fun storm to watch since winter weather is not happening anytime soon.