Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[Ryan]

Somewhat hard to measure, as the snow compacted itself along with the rain, but just under 3" at home. Rain is quickly tamping it down on hard surfaces.

Seeing they've adjusted the Winter Storm Warning back a few counties west after the fact. Feel like there was a little too much wishcasting and overreaction. Thanks to all here keeping it real!

[tron777]

Thanks Ryan and Marty too back on the previous page for the nice words! We try our best on here and we all learn from our successes and our failures. Trying to predict the weather (since our atmosphere is like the chaos theory) is tough! But if I didn't like a challenge, I wouldn't be here. A lot of folks on here who forecast along with me, probably feel the same way.

[tron777]

CVG is up to 39 now. Total QPF of 0.40" The low is passing by just to the NW of Cincinnati, right where the models had it when we knew the writing was on the wall for many snowfall wise. Once the low passes, the winds will crank up and it's going to be windy the next several days. I don't expect any problems from any scattered snow shower activity tonight or tomorrow morning. However, in some areas tomorrow afternoon could be a different story wherever these snow squalls develop. We will be tracking that activity tomorrow in this thread.

[airwolf76]

this is a strange storm. was forecasted for 3-5" to start around 8 am and i have not seen a flake yet

[Wxlrnr]

A side note to Tim. You were asking about the impact of tornadoes on barometric pressure. I was watching Fox weather and they were interviewing a storm chaser who had a tornado pass just in front of him on the road. He has weather instruments on the roof of his suv, he recorded a sharp drop in dew point and pressure as the tornado passed. So tornadoes may affect barometric pressure.

[House of Cards]

The one reason this storm was not a much more impactful storm is lack of arctic air. Even where its snowing temps are near 32. Next week arctic air is heading south and east but the southeast ridge over Florida is going to make it a nice fight between heat miser and snow miser. This also gives the coastal Northeast a better shot of winter weather as for the most part they have been spared in the bigger cities. What does this mean for us and probably more forecasting headaches lol

Great post! For some examples, my Mom's Sister who lives NW of STL in St. Charles, MO was supposed to get hammered! Not the case. They only got 2-3". I also have relatives in Somerset, MI which is in the NE corner of Hillsdale Co in the southern part of the state. They were also supposed to be in the jackpot zone. Granted, the storm for them just started around 6 or 7am this morning, and so far, they only have a couple of inches or so on the ground. Ground temps are warm and no arctic air as you said, Tim. The only way these storms can work out is to have 1"+ per hour snowfall rates. Then the snow will stick and pile up faster then it can melt. Otherwise, the snowfall forecast is going to underperform almost every time. Something to think about with future systems when we have no cold air to work with. That is why Sunday worked out as well as it did. We had 1"+ per hour snowfall rates for several hours and boom! 3-6" fell in the areas that kept getting the heavier bands.

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

[tpweather]

A side note to Tim. You were asking about the impact of tornadoes on barometric pressure. I was watching Fox weather and they were interviewing a storm chaser who had a tornado pass just in front of him on the road. He has weather instruments on the roof of his suv, he recorded a sharp drop in dew point and pressure as the tornado passed. So tornadoes may affect barometric pressure.

Thank You So Much. Was so strange I was just looking for pressure falls concerning the current storm and ran across that pressure fall in Houston. Every location nearby was either slightly falling or rising on pressures.

[MVWxObserver]

In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

Hey Doug,

Safe travel runs bro!

I went once to the Neil Armstrong Museum there in Wapa during my youth group years.

I'm still debating whether or not to go out and do a measurement.

[Ryan]

Interesting graphic from ILN below (pulled from their twitter). Looks like they really expected the low track to be southwest of metro??

ILN_What_Happened.jpg

[tron777]

The one reason this storm was not a much more impactful storm is lack of arctic air. Even where its snowing temps are near 32. Next week arctic air is heading south and east but the southeast ridge over Florida is going to make it a nice fight between heat miser and snow miser. This also gives the coastal Northeast a better shot of winter weather as for the most part they have been spared in the bigger cities. What does this mean for us and probably more forecasting headaches lol

Great post! For some examples, my Mom's Sister who lives NW of STL in St. Charles, MO was supposed to get hammered! Not the case. They only got 2-3". I also have relatives in Somerset, MI which is in the NE corner of Hillsdale Co in the southern part of the state. They were also supposed to be in the jackpot zone. Granted, the storm for them just started around 6 or 7am this morning, and so far, they only have a couple of inches or so on the ground. Ground temps are warm and no arctic air as you said, Tim. The only way these storms can work out is to have 1"+ per hour snowfall rates. Then the snow will stick and pile up faster then it can melt. Otherwise, the snowfall forecast is going to underperform almost every time. Something to think about with future systems when we have no cold air to work with. That is why Sunday worked out as well as it did. We had 1"+ per hour snowfall rates for several hours and boom! 3-6" fell in the areas that kept getting the heavier bands.

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

[tron777]

In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

Hey Doug,

Safe travel runs bro!

I went once to the Neil Armstrong Museum there in Wapa during my youth group years.

I'm still debating whether or not to go out and do a measurement.

Man up! Or at least snap a pic for us, Bro. Been wondering how much you had up there.

[tron777]

Interesting graphic from ILN below (pulled from their twitter). Looks like they really expected the low track to be southwest of metro??

I think you hit the nail on the head Ryan from one of your earlier posts. They got spooked because of what happened Sunday. A lot of the Pros did. Yes we busted as well on Sunday but we did not let it impact our judgment on here so that's the difference. Every set up is different and every storm behaves differently.

[tron777]

46 now imby with 0.52" of liquid. 0.41" at CVG with 46 degrees.

[dce]

In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

Hey Doug,

Safe travel runs bro!

I went once to the Neil Armstrong Museum there in Wapa during my youth group years.

I'm still debating whether or not to go out and do a measurement.

Man up! Or at least snap a pic for us, Bro. Been wondering how much you had up there.

Surprisingly, not that much! I would estimate about 2-2 1/2 inches has fallen here. Raining when the precip is light and snowing when it picks up. Big model bust up here. WAA even made it up this far.

[airwolf76]

it started snowing finally right around noon and quite heavy also, i have an inch down easy already

[tron777]

it started snowing finally right around noon and quite heavy also, i have an inch down easy already

Awesome Charles! Glad January wasn't a shut out for you.

[House of Cards]

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

[tron777]

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

Great post Dave! It is rare to have a March 2008 system where I knew 10 days out we were going to get whacked by that one. Usually what you posted is normally how it goes. I also believe that we tend to do better with weak lows and overrunning situations too. Another way we have scored are with upper lows that close off like Oct 89, 93... Jan 96... Feb 98 are some prime examples of that.

[tron777]

Seeing a bit of sunshine here so that will allow some of the stronger winds to mix down.

[House of Cards]

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

Great post Dave! It is rare to have a March 2008 system where I knew 10 days out we were going to get whacked by that one. Usually what you posted is normally how it goes. I also believe that we tend to do better with weak lows and overrunning situations too. Another way we have scored are with upper lows that close off like Oct 89, 93... Jan 96... Feb 98 are some prime examples of that.

thanks! And in all honesty, I've also noticed that after many of these, (and also honestly after Sever or tornadic storms as well when we're in a pattern of them recurring) it almost always seems that the local media and weather folks do exactly what they did with this second storm and go way overboard. Human nature I suppose.

[tron777]

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

Great post Dave! It is rare to have a March 2008 system where I knew 10 days out we were going to get whacked by that one. Usually what you posted is normally how it goes. I also believe that we tend to do better with weak lows and overrunning situations too. Another way we have scored are with upper lows that close off like Oct 89, 93... Jan 96... Feb 98 are some prime examples of that.

thanks! And in all honesty, I've also noticed that after many of these, (and also honestly after Sever or tornadic storms as well when we're in a pattern of them recurring) it almost always seems that the local media and weather folks do exactly what they did with this second storm and go way overboard. Human nature I suppose.

I think you're exactly right. It is human nature. It is so tough now for real Mets and local media thanks to social media. It is a blessing and a curse. Also, most of the model data is accessible for free on the internet (outside of a few pay things) then John Q Public can now post 18Z GFS 384 snow maps that show 2 feet of snow falling! When that stuff started happening years ago, it made a real Mets job that much more difficult.

[tron777]

The wind is roaring out there! 30-40 mph gusts occurring IMBY thanks to some sun peaking thru the clouds.

[MJSun]

Screenshot_20230125-151502.png

[dce]

Screenshot_20230125-151502.png

Very good!

[dce]

KDAY came in with 4.7 inches. I live 3 1/2 miles directly east of the airport. I may have underestimated my 3 inches. Probably received a little more.