Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[tpweather]

No deaths which is great but I just happened to be looking at pressure falls at that time and thought something was not correct but like you mentioned that can happen with a tornado and that is exactly what happened

[cloudy72]

Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.

I believe there was a tornado emergency issued there earlier which hopefully saved lives.

[wrmwxfreak]

We are closed for tomorrow as well. We follow Middletown City Schools, and they closed, and so did we.

[tron777]

Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.

Yeah, not good at all. LSR from NWS in Houston:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE SOUTH HOUSTON     29.62N 95.20W
01/24/2023                   HARRIS             TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TORNADO MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY.
            RADAR CONFIRMED NEAR I-45 AND BELTWAY 8
            (SOUTH). TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST
            THROUGH PASADENA, DEER PARK AND THE HOUSTON
            SHIP CHANNEL. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED.
            UNKNOWN INTENSITY. UNKNOWN INJURIES AND/OR
            DEATHS. STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR
            WEDNESDAY.

[tron777]

41 / 35 with heavy rain in Paducah so the leading edge of the better precip is at least that far north. Nothing yet in Henderson, KY or Evansville, IN.

[tpweather]

41 / 35 with heavy rain in Paducah so the leading edge of the better precip is at least that far north. Nothing yet in Henderson, KY or Evansville, IN.

Moving in a little faster I believe. We got that nice east wind so temps are not rising like you sometimes with a system like this. My current temp is 36

[tron777]

I just hope this thing doesn't go even more NW then modeled. Look at that dry slot. Sheesh! This is a well developed mid latitude cyclone already and the storm is just in its developing stages.

DrySlotFromHell.png

Okay guys... heading to bed. I am tired! Please keep the discussion going and keep an eye on things. I'll catch up in the morning to see how things went.

[tron777]

41 / 35 with heavy rain in Paducah so the leading edge of the better precip is at least that far north. Nothing yet in Henderson, KY or Evansville, IN.

Moving in a little faster I believe. We got that nice east wind so temps are not rising like you sometimes with a system like this. My current temp is 36

35 / 30 here. 39 / 30 at CVG as of 8:15pm.

[mikeyp]

37/29 here! This storm is huge

[tpweather]

The one good thing I see so far is the precip is moving north/northeast and not straight north. Not a big push of warm air early in this system but do expect some warming on Wednesday especially the further south and east you live. Well making it an early evening which means I will probably get up around 4am. Sticking to my forecast and see what happens.

[MJSun]

West Clermont and therefore also my kids' school closed.

Still betting on rain or the dry slot.

[Browneyedgirl]

How long will it rain before the changeover?

[briceg09]

Make sure you guys are checking https://mping.ou.edu/display/ and https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

If the models show different conditions than what is on the ground, then they will probably be wrong about what will happen here. We need to check downstream to make a nowcast for us.

This is why so many were wrong about the effects of the snow and driving conditions Sunday morning. People don't care about how many inches that definitely helps them decide what to do but they need to know how it will affect them.

Hey Brice! How's it going? Haven't seen you around in a long time. Hope all is well!

Doing well! Brand manger at a pickleball company in Cincinnati

[airwolf76]

not sure what to think of this storm anymore

[wxnut]

A really good update out of IND. Two highlights which may help us: p-type is snow/ice pellet in places expecting rain, changeover to snow quicker than expected in some places. Leads them to think may need to update totals in southern counties. However, cannot forget they are further west than us.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250349
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

The forecasted winter storm is on our doorstep as precipitation is
expected to begin from southwest to northeast within the next few
hours. This mesoscale update is going to focus on the
development/progression of the system currently in Arkansas,
Louisiana, and Tennessee and how models are handling the scenario
compared to observations.

As of 02z, the lowest pressure of 1004.3 mb was found in surface obs
was located just NE of Alexandria, LA. As of the writing of this
discussion, the surface low is still broad, but should tighten and
deepen over the next few hours. The broad surface low as of 10PM is
likely located in NE Louisiana near Winnsboro with a min pressure of
1004/1005mb. Comparing observations with 00z runs of short term hi-
res models shows that the low is right on track, possibly a county
or two further west. However, models struggle with developing lows
so this is not unexpected so early in the cyclogenesis stages. The
center of the low may also wobble around over the next few hours as
it gets more organized. Will have to watch the low later tonight as
it develops and follow its track as it compares to models. A storm
track deviation as small as 20 miles south or north could move the
axis of heavier snow in either direction resulting in significant
changes in the forecast for a few counties along the I-70 corridor
on the edge of the heaviest snowfall.

Looking at the radar, the dry slot associated with the expansive
precipitation shield northwest of the low has reached into northern
Arkansas. Both the NAM3K and the RAP have shown the dry slot getting
just up to Fort Smith, then the deformation band moves in and pivots
over that area. Radar observations show this happening very nicely,
increasing confidence that the models are initializing well and have
a good handle on precipitation. Further back towards Dallas, which
is getting the back edge of the deformation band, reports show
mostly snow with some pockets of rain mixed in. This matches well
with short term models, however looks like models may not be cold
enough on the backside of the low as observations show more snow in
areas where models suggest rain. Confidence is rising that P-type
tomorrow morning and early afternoon will be mainly snow on the
backside of the system, even for portions of Southern and South
Central Indiana. Strong forcing and high precipitation rates could
keep the column cooler resulting in mainly snow, rather than a mix.
However, still will have to watch surface temperatures as heavier
snow falling at 33-34 degrees will have to overcome melting
occurring in order to accumulate.

Ahead of the low in Tennessee this evening, ground observations show
surface temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40, but with mixed
precipitation falling. This area is associated with the first "wave"
of precipitation that will move northward into Indiana later
tonight. Short term models seem to be too warm ahead of the low as
they show mainly rain as a P-type while mixed rain and ice pellets
are reported throughout Western Tennessee and NE Arkansas. While we
fully expect precipitation to start as rain as it enters Indiana, we
do expect a transition within 1-2 hours of the onset of
precipitation. Paducah, KY transitioned to snow about an hour or two
ahead of what the RAP and NAM show, which is something to take into
account as that could potentially add another inch or two to final
snowfall totals.

ACARS soundings from across the south and Tennessee Valley line up
well with what short term models show, with a warm nose around 700mb
ahead of the system with a pronounced area of below freezing
temperatures below the warm nose supporting a brief period of sleet.
Due to heavier rates, think that evaporative cooling processes have
cooled down the column enough to support more wintry precip rather
than plain rain. Will have to watch P-type with the initial wave as
a brief period of sleet mixing in with rain and snow is possible
before a full transition to snow as observations show.

Overall, forecast is largely on track. Trending snowfall totals up
just slightly across Southern Indiana to account for more wintry
precipitation in downstream observations than what models depict.
Still a little early to determine if the low track will be a little
further north or south of what is currently forecasted. As the low
center becomes better defined, we may be able to tweak the forecast
a bit to account for where the deformation band will set up and
pivot. Confidence remains high for this winter storm event across
Indiana. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the night.

&&

[House of Cards]

A really good update out of IND. Two highlights which may help us: p-type is snow/ice pellet in places expecting rain, changeover to snow quicker than expected in some places. Leads them to think may need to update totals in southern counties. However, cannot forget they are further west than us.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250349
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 1049 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

The forecasted winter storm is on our doorstep as precipitation is
expected to begin from southwest to northeast within the next few
hours. This mesoscale update is going to focus on the
development/progression of the system currently in Arkansas,
Louisiana, and Tennessee and how models are handling the scenario
compared to observations.

As of 02z, the lowest pressure of 1004.3 mb was found in surface obs
was located just NE of Alexandria, LA. As of the writing of this
discussion, the surface low is still broad, but should tighten and
deepen over the next few hours. The broad surface low as of 10PM is
likely located in NE Louisiana near Winnsboro with a min pressure of
1004/1005mb. Comparing observations with 00z runs of short term hi-
res models shows that the low is right on track, possibly a county
or two further west. However, models struggle with developing lows
so this is not unexpected so early in the cyclogenesis stages. The
center of the low may also wobble around over the next few hours as
it gets more organized. Will have to watch the low later tonight as
it develops and follow its track as it compares to models. A storm
track deviation as small as 20 miles south or north could move the
axis of heavier snow in either direction resulting in significant
changes in the forecast for a few counties along the I-70 corridor
on the edge of the heaviest snowfall.

Looking at the radar, the dry slot associated with the expansive
precipitation shield northwest of the low has reached into northern
Arkansas. Both the NAM3K and the RAP have shown the dry slot getting
just up to Fort Smith, then the deformation band moves in and pivots
over that area. Radar observations show this happening very nicely,
increasing confidence that the models are initializing well and have
a good handle on precipitation. Further back towards Dallas, which
is getting the back edge of the deformation band, reports show
mostly snow with some pockets of rain mixed in. This matches well
with short term models, however looks like models may not be cold
enough on the backside of the low as observations show more snow in
areas where models suggest rain. Confidence is rising that P-type
tomorrow morning and early afternoon will be mainly snow on the
backside of the system, even for portions of Southern and South
Central Indiana. Strong forcing and high precipitation rates could
keep the column cooler resulting in mainly snow, rather than a mix.
However, still will have to watch surface temperatures as heavier
snow falling at 33-34 degrees will have to overcome melting
occurring in order to accumulate.

Ahead of the low in Tennessee this evening, ground observations show
surface temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40, but with mixed
precipitation falling. This area is associated with the first "wave"
of precipitation that will move northward into Indiana later
tonight. Short term models seem to be too warm ahead of the low as
they show mainly rain as a P-type while mixed rain and ice pellets
are reported throughout Western Tennessee and NE Arkansas. While we
fully expect precipitation to start as rain as it enters Indiana, we
do expect a transition within 1-2 hours of the onset of
precipitation. Paducah, KY transitioned to snow about an hour or two
ahead of what the RAP and NAM show, which is something to take into
account as that could potentially add another inch or two to final
snowfall totals.

ACARS soundings from across the south and Tennessee Valley line up
well with what short term models show, with a warm nose around 700mb
ahead of the system with a pronounced area of below freezing
temperatures below the warm nose supporting a brief period of sleet.
Due to heavier rates, think that evaporative cooling processes have
cooled down the column enough to support more wintry precip rather
than plain rain. Will have to watch P-type with the initial wave as
a brief period of sleet mixing in with rain and snow is possible
before a full transition to snow as observations show.

Overall, forecast is largely on track. Trending snowfall totals up
just slightly across Southern Indiana to account for more wintry
precipitation in downstream observations than what models depict.
Still a little early to determine if the low track will be a little
further north or south of what is currently forecasted. As the low
center becomes better defined, we may be able to tweak the forecast
a bit to account for where the deformation band will set up and
pivot. Confidence remains high for this winter storm event across
Indiana. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the night.

&&

interesting developments. Also just saw a Tornado Warning near New Orleans. What a storm.

[House of Cards]

Tornado warnings have now moved to the area east of New Orleans.

[MVWxObserver]

Les I just saw reports from a city named Pasadena,Tx which is 15 miles southeast of Houston. The local police chief mentioned it was the worse damage he had ever seen there and that is 25 years. He called the damage catastrophic with many folks stranded on the highways and several vehicles overturned.

2019 3 SSE SOUTH HOUSTON HARRIS TX 2962 9520 TORNADO MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY. RADAR CONFIRMED NEAR I-45 AND BELTWAY 8 (SOUTH). TORNADO CONTINUED EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH PASADENA ... DEER PARK AND THE HOU (HGX)

[MVWxObserver]

Still no word about Greenville City schools for tomorrow which is surprising.

Currently at the freezing mark here and progged for around 29 Wed morning then topping at around 34 for the afternoon.

[Kgail76]

Snowing now in Norwood. Good sized flakes at a pretty quick clip. Slight dusting on the car but nothing sticking to pavement yet.

[airwolf76]

i think most of you should be seeing precip. the field has really expanded looks like most of ohio and indiana are in the snow but mostly rain in kentucky. post your obs. where is everyone

[mikeyp]

Got about 1.5” and drizzling right now

[Bgoney]

Not even close, Imby, WAA and mother nature for the win

925mb (1).gif

[airwolf76]

snow shield is not even an hour away from me. this thing is moving in way quicker then expected

[BookNerdCarp]

Non event. WAA for the victory. I woke up at 3am and it was 37 degrees.