Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[tpweather]

Wanted to add on forecasting and this is a forum on something most of us love. Nobody gets paid but we all try to get out the best forecast possible. Several folks on here have different ways of looking at the weather and I believe with the different styles it works well most of the time. We all have our strong and weak points and sometimes knowing what you are good at and knowing other folks are better at certain things then hopefully the forecasts will become more accurate. Sometimes being stubborn is good but also can be what leads to an incorrect forecast. I always tell this story but when I first found the forum that Rich A. RIP had and I never once had looked at a model. I was draw your own maps and just go off what you had studied the past 30 plus years at the time. The following winter season I decided to use the models almost 90 p/c and no doubt the worse possible forecasting I ever had. Lesson was don't forget what you already know but add new technology the can make it easier.

[tron777]

Watching the 18Z HRRR now and a nice front end thump. Probably a tad warmer then the 12Z run. I'll use CVG for this analysis so remember from S to N will be the changeover from the low track path and points SE from there. NW of the low track will be mostly snow. So with this run of the HRRR, snow begins at CVG around 1am Tues night / Wed morning. It is hammer time for probably 4 or 5 hours then we start to mix around 6-7am. By 8-9am we are beginning to see light rain while folks to the north like the N Cincy burbs and points north are still snowing hard. As the low moves into SW KY, I'll eye ball it and say Bowling Green, the mix line continues to lift northward as the warm front does. Mixing line by 10am is trying to get more up towards Dayton and Columbus. Near I-70 and north still snowing. In Indiana, it is pound town in our NW counties like where the current winter storm watch has been hoisted earlier. IND gets hammered as well. Looks like the low tracks NE right along the I-71 corridor. The low by 2pm Wed when the model stops running is over the Cincy Metro area. Mostly a light rain by midday into early afternoon either side of the I-71 corridor and points SE from there. Heavy snow NW of there continuing. A really close call for Dayton, esp those North and West of Dayton as far as mixing concerns go. Too bad this won't shift 50 miles SE. A shame but it is what it is. The model using snow depth, still gives CVG 4" 1-2" SE Crew. 4-6" I-70 Crew and 6" plus NW counties, IND, NW of Dayton, etc.

[tron777]

15Z RAP has a start time a bit later and low track a bit more NW then the HRRR. so take what I said on the HRRR and shift it NW by a couple rows of counties. Still, it does give CVG 4" nonetheless per snow depth maps.

[Trentonwx06]

ILN added Butler, Warren, Clinton to Winter Storm Watch. I thought they would add counties along river too but see what happens on these model runs.

[cloudy72]

Watching the 18Z HRRR now and a nice front end thump. Probably a tad warmer then the 12Z run. I'll use CVG for this analysis so remember from S to N will be the changeover from the low track path and points SE from there. NW of the low track will be mostly snow. So with this run of the HRRR, snow begins at CVG around 1am Tues night / Wed morning. It is hammer time for probably 4 or 5 hours then we start to mix around 6-7am. By 8-9am we are beginning to see light rain while folks to the north like the N Cincy burbs and points north are still snowing hard. As the low moves into SW KY, I'll eye ball it and say Bowling Green, the mix line continues to lift northward as the warm front does. Mixing line by 10am is trying to get more up towards Dayton and Columbus. Near I-70 and north still snowing. In Indiana, it is pound town in our NW counties like where the current winter storm watch has been hoisted earlier. IND gets hammered as well. Looks like the low tracks NE right along the I-71 corridor. The low by 2pm Wed when the model stops running is over the Cincy Metro area. Mostly a light rain by midday into early afternoon either side of the I-71 corridor and points SE from there. Heavy snow NW of there continuing. A really close call for Dayton, esp those North and West of Dayton as far as mixing concerns go. Too bad this won't shift 50 miles SE. A shame but it is what it is. The model using snow depth, still gives CVG 4" 1-2" SE Crew. 4-6" I-70 Crew and 6" plus NW counties, IND, NW of Dayton, etc.

Great post! Les - I like your thinking on snowfall amounts and as you said it all depends on how far north and how soon that mix line gets. Just north of that line is where the bonus snow will be. Still liking the Indy-FWA-DTW corridor for round 2, but even round 1 could dump a good 4-6" across much of our forum from I-71 NW.

[tpweather]

Indy has added a few counties to the south and east with a special weather statement and not a winter weather advisory. My guess they will wait until Tuesday and decide if that is the call or they need to upgrade.

[tron777]

18Z NAM coming in NW with the low tracking W of the MS river into the S tip of ILL to Western IN like West of IND. 12z NAM was right over IND. This model now is probably the further NW of them all! Everyone would mix and changeover to rain with this solution. 1" south to 2" N Cincy burbs. 2-4" I-70 Crew would be about it with the NAM.

[tron777]

ILN added Butler, Warren, Clinton to Winter Storm Watch. I thought they would add counties along river too but see what happens on these model runs.

I think this is reasonable. They have 2-4" of snow / sleet for you all and 4-7" I-70 Crew on north. I can buy that. I don't think we will fit warning criteria along the river but a winter weather advisory should cover us down here. That probably won't be issued until we get a little closer, maybe with tonight's package so they can see another main set of model runs. So far, ILN in my opinion is handling this well.

[fyrfyter]

18z HRRR has 5.7 at 10:1 and 3.2 via Kuchera, so about 4” or so looks reasonable.

[tpweather]

18Z NAM coming in NW with the low tracking W of the MS river into the S tip of ILL to Western IN like West of IND. 12z NAM was right over IND. This model now is probably the further NW of them all! Everyone would mix and changeover to rain with this solution. 1" south to 2" N Cincy burbs. 2-4" I-70 Crew would be about it with the NAM.

If the Nam is correct and still looking at tons of info but the dry slot would become a much bigger issue. Even folks well north of here like Dayton and maybe even in Indy. Nam missed the last storm on precip type but this is a different beast and must try and forecast what we see.

[young pup]

Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

Toothpicks.PNG

Ha Ha.

I just looked at the latest watches and warnings with this. They are not messing around.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

[tron777]

Great post! Les - I like your thinking on snowfall amounts and as you said it all depends on how far north and how soon that mix line gets. Just north of that line is where the bonus snow will be. Still liking the Indy-FWA-DTW corridor for round 2, but even round 1 could dump a good 4-6" across much of our forum from I-71 NW.

Thanks Mike! I always like it when you post. You add confidence to the forecast.

[winterstormjoe]

Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

Toothpicks.PNG

I just called Dusty Baker and he is sending over a gross today.

How many toothpicks are in that box, there'a a movie somewhere here! Lol

Usually, I just start eating more snacks when I get anxious on these winter storm potentials.

[tron777]

18Z NAM coming in NW with the low tracking W of the MS river into the S tip of ILL to Western IN like West of IND. 12z NAM was right over IND. This model now is probably the further NW of them all! Everyone would mix and changeover to rain with this solution. 1" south to 2" N Cincy burbs. 2-4" I-70 Crew would be about it with the NAM.

If the Nam is correct and still looking at tons of info but the dry slot would become a much bigger issue. Even folks well north of here like Dayton and maybe even in Indy. Nam missed the last storm on precip type but this is a different beast and must try and forecast what we see.

It phases much earlier so the low gets cranked up much earlier. Stronger WAA and then the dry slot as well as you mentioned. It is a possible solution. If other models go this way tonight, then you know the writing is on the wall. My current low track thoughts are with the majority of guidance from Paducah to Cincinnati up I-71 to Cleveland. The majority of the models show exactly that at this time.

[tron777]

How many toothpicks are in that box, there'a a movie somewhere here! Lol

Usually, I just start eating more snacks when I get anxious on these winter storm potentials.

Hope you got your snacks all stocked up for the next few weeks. You're gonna need them!

[young pup]

Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

Toothpicks.PNG

I just called Dusty Baker and he is sending over a gross today.

Ha Ha Ha

[tron777]

Just as a side note, wrap around snow showers should still occur on the backside of this system Wed night, Thurs with a few flurries early Fri as well. For the Wed night and Thurs period, we'll have to see how the low tracks on Wed to see where the best coverage will be for the back end snow showers. Additional light accumulations would be possible with this activity.

[MVWxObserver]

I have an aunt from here in Greenville who has chronic back pain and she is scheduled for a 7:45 nerve block procedure on Wed morning at Wayne Health Care (local hospital). So my folks have arranged to take her for it and then take her home. The thing is her doctor who's main office is in Columbus and who satellites to the Miami Valley region including here doesn't always show up and open communication with his patient base isn't one of his finer suits, unfortunately.

At least its just a local trip and not out of town.

This next storm, although pretty, is kind of mentally exhausting.

Currently at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

[Trevor]

I like a general 2-5” for the area. I expect most in the 275 loop will hit the 3-4” mark.

[Trevor]

@Les, yay for me being added to the WSW

I’m counting down the days to spring as you damn well know. Wanna trade places until then??

[Trevor]

I haven’t really read and caught up on previous posts on here today due to work and catching up on doing my own forecasting for this to friends and fam, so apologies if anything I say has already been said. I’ll just go on ahead and post the message I sent out in my group chat.

“ Before getting into the upcoming winter storm, let’s talk about the elephant in the room and that elephant happens to be yesterday’s snow and a truly terrible forecast performance by myself, The National Weather Service, and TV meteorologists alike. I had a forecast for 1-3” of slushy snow with minimal travel impacts for reasons I thought were sound and solid at the time. That 1-3” quickly turned into 4-6” with high-level travel impacts for the first part of the day. Failing grade lol! The system came in colder and more moisture-laden than expected. There are other more technical reasons but I’ll save you all from that considering this is already going to be a long post lol. I specially mentioned to a friend Saturday evening that two higher-resolution models were coming in with 3-5” right along 71 but I discounted that data as outliers and said “no way.” Well we saw what happened there .

Moving forward, we have another round of wintry weather in store for tomorrow night and Wednesday. I’ll break it down with bullet points per my classic style back in the day doing updates on my website and social media:

-a period of heavy, wet snow (cement-style, like we saw with the last one) is expected between 3-9am Wednesday morning

-the snow will accumulate rapidly (1” per hour at times)

-temperatures will be marginal (30-32), but we will have maximum accumulation ability given that this will happen before sunrise

-expect 2-5” of accumulation; I would say most in the 275 loop will hit the 3 or 4” mark

-morning commute on Wednesday is going to be a total mess

-temperatures will then rise above freezing by mid morning and any remaining precipitation will change to rain showers or drizzle and roads should improve rather quickly

Having said all of that, I expect all schools across the area to delay on Wednesday, with most probably going with a close due to timing — even though roads should be great by midday.”

[MVWxObserver]

@Les, yay for me being added to the WSW

I’m counting down the days to spring as you damn well know. Wanna trade places until then??

I can certainly relate, bro!

Gimme alternate sunny and t-stormy days any ole day!

[Trevor]

@Les, yay for me being added to the WSW

I’m counting down the days to spring as you damn well know. Wanna trade places until then??

I can certainly relate, bro!

Gimme alternate sunny and t-stormy days any ole day!

[tron777]

@Les, yay for me being added to the WSW

I’m counting down the days to spring as you damn well know. Wanna trade places until then??

You're the one who chose to move! I knew this was going to happen. You get more snow in the winter but the trade off is better storm chances for severe wx as well. You get the best of both worlds.

[tron777]

I like a general 2-5” for the area. I expect most in the 275 loop will hit the 3-4” mark.

This is a fair and reasonable call. Good message that you sent out on social media as well.