Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[winterstormjoe]

I was really happy yesterday with the 6 inches I got and the Bengals win! I have a feeling I'll be working from home Wednesday morning as the roads will be a mess.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is really amp'ed up and NW tracking the low from Paducah, to Evansville to west of IND to Toledo. NAM still gives us 3-4" before the changeover to rain despite the low being that far West..

All the models are showing that front end thump. That is probably going to be our chance at a moderate snow event. I can't see the models shifting southeast with the low at this point. They have been very consistent, for a change, for several days now. I do like the consistency of the front end dump as well. All the models are showing a nice batch of moisture before the warm air wins out.

I do agree with you Doug on the WAA front end potential. Still a few question marks to where the rain dry slot goes.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and still coming off the high of yesterdays win. Here we go and the start of the mid-day model runs. Over the weekend I talked about where the system strengthens and the longer it took the better chances of snow for us. The low does take time to ramp up but what I did not see and sometimes hard to find on models is an upper system trying to phase with the southern system as it moves northeast. Depending on how strong the upper system is will determine how far northwest this system moves. The nam has a solution imo that could happen and not throwing it out at all but still want to see the other models this afternoon. One thing is the surge of GOM moisture with this system is strong and that is why we are seeing those nice totals on the front end of the storm. Of course then we need to see how much the system strengthens and the stronger the storm the dry slot should be very noticeable. The back end of the storm should see snow showers that could get us through Friday and could add some extra snow total plus it will be much colder. So not making a snowfall prediction yet because still need to see other models and if they are heading towards the stronger low to the west.

[tron777]

Kind of an odd track on the 12Z RGEM. Low comes up thru Western TN East of Memphis, to Bowling Green, KY then due east along I-64 until it hits the KY / WV boarder. After that, the low moves north to Cleveland. I don't think I've ever seen a low do that before lol

[tron777]

12Z HRRR ending at 48 hours has the low over Western TN East of Memphis when the run ends. 9Z RAP ending at 51 hours has the low in the same location.

[cincy bud]

The watch write up from NWS up here is saying 4"-7" in this storm. 6" from yesterday's snow was gorgeous.

[tpweather]

Kind of an odd track on the 12Z RGEM. Low comes up thru Western TN East of Memphis, to Bowling Green, KY then due east along I-64 until it hits the KY / WV boarder. After that, the low moves north to Cleveland. I don't think I've ever seen a low do that before lol

Les I believe the model is jumping around trying to find the lowest pressure. Sometimes that can be hard to fine and if you have a broader area with pressures similar the model will just throw the low on the map out there. Different than the Nam as its not having the upper system pull it further northwest though the front end snow is less

[fyrfyter]

It's the same noise we always see with things cutting through the Ohio Valley. Locks many days out are an unknown. It will be the usual 12-24 hours before the event start when we get some agreement with the track.

[tpweather]

Gfs similar to the nam and yes the upper system in the plains is interacting and that is why you see the more northwest move. That small system in the northern plains is probably enough to bring the surface low 75 miles west. Lets see what the CMC and Euro show concerning the upper system.

[tron777]

12Z OP GFS might be a hair SE with the track vs 6Z. Text data and using snow depth maps would indicate several inches for just about everyone. 2-4"+ easily with the front end thump. If enough dynamic cooling can take place with the heavier rates and good frontogenic forcing, I could see some folks on our forum in the north and obviously NW getting into more of a 3-6" range. Due to the set up of this system and the low tracking close to us or NW of us (depending on the model) most people's opportunities to score will be with the front end of the system in that 3am to 10am window Wed morning. Timing of course depends on your location relative to the low track. Going to be an interesting event from my perspective.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has a Memphis to NKY to Cleveland low track.

[tron777]

Gfs similar to the nam and yes the upper system in the plains is interacting and that is why you see the more northwest move. That small system in the northern plains is probably enough to bring the surface low 75 miles west. Lets see what the CMC and Euro show concerning the upper system.

Great post Tim! You're absolutely right. That little northern stream upper low and when does it phase with the main surface low coming NE from TX or LA is the whole key to knowing where the low is going to go. To me, goal posts have been narrowed to an IND track to NKY or just SE of Cincinnati basically the way I see it right now. That would be the difference between a 1-3" / 2-4" type of front end thump to something more in the 3-6" range.

[tpweather]

Gfs similar to the nam and yes the upper system in the plains is interacting and that is why you see the more northwest move. That small system in the northern plains is probably enough to bring the surface low 75 miles west. Lets see what the CMC and Euro show concerning the upper system.

Great post Tim! You're absolutely right. That little northern stream upper low and when does it phase with the main surface low coming NE from TX or LA is the whole key to knowing where the low is going to go. To me, goal posts have been narrowed to an IND track to NKY or just SE of Cincinnati basically the way I see it right now. That would be the difference between a 1-3" / 2-4" type of front end thump to something more in the 3-6" range.

Exactly Les and if they phase early then the northwest bump and probably a dry slot because its stronger. If the phase a little later then the dry slot probably not as big but we would still go over to rain on Wednesday. The front end like you mentioned is when locally we get the biggest snowfall with this system. How much is still a question mark and again the phasing will also be part of the equation with that as well.

[tron777]

Gfs similar to the nam and yes the upper system in the plains is interacting and that is why you see the more northwest move. That small system in the northern plains is probably enough to bring the surface low 75 miles west. Lets see what the CMC and Euro show concerning the upper system.

Great post Tim! You're absolutely right. That little northern stream upper low and when does it phase with the main surface low coming NE from TX or LA is the whole key to knowing where the low is going to go. To me, goal posts have been narrowed to an IND track to NKY or just SE of Cincinnati basically the way I see it right now. That would be the difference between a 1-3" / 2-4" type of front end thump to something more in the 3-6" range.

Exactly Les and if they phase early then the northwest bump and probably a dry slot because its stronger. If the phase a little later then the dry slot probably not as big but we would still go over to rain on Wednesday. The front end like you mentioned is when locally we get the biggest snowfall with this system. How much is still a question mark and again the phasing will also be part of the equation with that as well.

A wonderful summation Tim. That is basically it in a nut shell.

[tron777]

If we had no northern involvement and we were only dealing with the main southern stream low then an Apps runner track would be occurring like we saw with a few of those UKMET runs and in the early stages, the Euro too. Of course we know there is going to be some phasing and involvement so an all snow solution for most of us, just isn't going to happen.

15Z RAP is coming in with a Memphis to NKY / Cincy track when the model ends at 51 hours. That track is the best case scenario for most of our hoods to remain snow as long as we can. We are seeing several models showing this as well as several models with the more NW track that dry slots us more. Place your bets!

[tpweather]

If we had no northern involvement and we were only dealing with the main southern stream low then an Apps runner track would be occurring like we saw with a few of those UKMET runs and in the early stages, the Euro too. Of course we know there is going to be some phasing and involvement so an all snow solution for most of us, just isn't going to happen.

15Z RAP is coming in with a Memphis to NKY / Cincy track when the model ends at 51 hours. That track is the best case scenario for most of our hoods to remain snow as long as we can. We are seeing several models showing this as well as several models with the more NW track that dry slots us more. Place your bets!

I agree Les and the over/under at CVG should be at 3 inches. Again place your bets

[mainevilleweather]

How accurate was the RAP last storm?

[tron777]

Hey Tim... remember us discussing temps prior to Sunday's storm hitting and we noticed how it was a bit colder then some of the model guidance was showing? Those early warnings signs for an overachiever were there. So now the question for this current system we are tracking is do we see some sun tomorrow for the 40s which is the current forecast or do clouds win out and keep us in the 30s for highs? We know Tues night there will be increasing clouds ahead of the WAA snows prior to the warm front lifting north on Wed and either dry slotting us or changing us over to light rain. Just something to monitor tomorrow IMO like we did with this past Sunday's system. For today... clouds and mid 30s will be all we can manage. Can we clear out any tonight for lows to drop into the 20s or do we stay more cloudy and keep lows in the 30-32 degree range to start our day on Tuesday? These are those little details that as forecasters we need to be paying attention to.

If you look at the SPC mesopage, you can see the players on the field which I have highlighted with red circles on the image below. The northern piece is that 1014 MB low that you can see in Western Canada North of Montana. The southern piece is that 1004 MB low in Mexico. Remember we have said that we wanted the trough to dig as far down into Mexico as possible for us to get some snow out of this system so we do have that going for us.

pmsl.gif

[tron777]

How accurate was the RAP last storm?

With the last storm, the HRRR, RAP, and RGEM I believe did the best with the dynamic cooling processes and low track. But remember, Sunday's system had a much, much weaker low and we only had a partial phase. With this system a stronger low is likely along with much more phasing, so WAA is going to be much stronger. So this is a different set up. I'd be careful at this distance using those models at this time unless we see some of those warning signs again or if they were to gain more model support.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS SLP Clusters indicate a low track form Paducah thru SE Indiana to just west of Cleveland.

[tron777]

12Z UKMET has come back NW (as expected) so it has the low track from Memphis to NKY into Eastern Ohio.

[tpweather]

Hey Tim... remember us discussing temps prior to Sunday's storm hitting and we noticed how it was a bit colder then some of the model guidance was showing? Those early warnings signs for an overachiever were there. So now the question for this current system we are tracking is do we see some sun tomorrow for the 40s which is the current forecast or do clouds win out and keep us in the 30s for highs? We know Tues night there will be increasing clouds ahead of the WAA snows prior to the warm front lifting north on Wed and either dry slotting us or changing us over to light rain. Just something to monitor tomorrow IMO like we did with this past Sunday's system. For today... clouds and mid 30s will be all we can manage. Can we clear out any tonight for lows to drop into the 20s or do we stay more cloudy and keep lows in the 30-32 degree range to start our day on Tuesday? These are those little details that as forecasters we need to be paying attention to.

If you look at the SPC mesopage, you can see the players on the field which I have highlighted with red circles on the image below. The northern piece is that 1014 MB low that you can see in Western Canada North of Montana. The southern piece is that 1004 MB low in Mexico. Remember we have said that we wanted the trough to dig as far down into Mexico as possible for us to get some snow out of this system so we do have that going for us.


pmsl.gif

Wonderful post Les and I was thinking about that earlier. No doubt a different system and much stronger like you mentioned. These are small details that can be a difference maker or least a few hours difference maker. The dynamic cooling is still on with this system and again heavier rates will make all the difference at the start of the storm. Sure sooner or later we lose that and we go over to rain but how long of a period do we have decent snowfall rate. Is it 1 hour,2hours or more. That is why doing a snowfall forecast will not be easy and I am using CVG as a midpoint range. Folks in Lexington may see 1/2 or so and folks in Dayton could end up towards 6 inches. We are smack in the middle and an hour extra of snow can make a difference.

I believe the NWS will issue an advisory for our area. Probably issue it on Tuesday morning. They will most likely upgrade the watch to a warning and may add a few counties once we see the most likely outcome. Plenty to go over the next day or so and keep us quite busy.

[fyrfyter]

18z HRRR and WRF should be interesting. HRRR was closest for our last event, 12 hours before it began.

At this point, I would rather watch the short term models than the long term ones. The big models are just having issues with this pattern.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... remember us discussing temps prior to Sunday's storm hitting and we noticed how it was a bit colder then some of the model guidance was showing? Those early warnings signs for an overachiever were there. So now the question for this current system we are tracking is do we see some sun tomorrow for the 40s which is the current forecast or do clouds win out and keep us in the 30s for highs? We know Tues night there will be increasing clouds ahead of the WAA snows prior to the warm front lifting north on Wed and either dry slotting us or changing us over to light rain. Just something to monitor tomorrow IMO like we did with this past Sunday's system. For today... clouds and mid 30s will be all we can manage. Can we clear out any tonight for lows to drop into the 20s or do we stay more cloudy and keep lows in the 30-32 degree range to start our day on Tuesday? These are those little details that as forecasters we need to be paying attention to.

If you look at the SPC mesopage, you can see the players on the field which I have highlighted with red circles on the image below. The northern piece is that 1014 MB low that you can see in Western Canada North of Montana. The southern piece is that 1004 MB low in Mexico. Remember we have said that we wanted the trough to dig as far down into Mexico as possible for us to get some snow out of this system so we do have that going for us.


pmsl.gif

Wonderful post Les and I was thinking about that earlier. No doubt a different system and much stronger like you mentioned. These are small details that can be a difference maker or least a few hours difference maker. The dynamic cooling is still on with this system and again heavier rates will make all the difference at the start of the storm. Sure sooner or later we lose that and we go over to rain but how long of a period do we have decent snowfall rate. Is it 1 hour,2hours or more. That is why doing a snowfall forecast will not be easy and I am using CVG as a midpoint range. Folks in Lexington may see 1/2 or so and folks in Dayton could end up towards 6 inches. We are smack in the middle and an hour extra of snow can make a difference.

I believe the NWS will issue an advisory for our area. Probably issue it on Tuesday morning. They will most likely upgrade the watch to a warning and may add a few counties once we see the most likely outcome. Plenty to go over the next day or so and keep us quite busy.

Thanks Tim and I agree that we should see an advisory posted perhaps with the overnight package or sometime on Tues depending on how the data goes tonight.

[tpweather]

18z HRRR and WRF should be interesting. HRRR was closest for our last event, 12 hours before it began.

At this point, I would rather watch the short term models than the long term ones. The big models are just having issues with this pattern.

I agree Aaron and also what is really happening on the ground. Les and I talked about this Saturday how we got that nice dip in temps Saturday evening when models were trying to figure if we were getting rain or snow. I thought banding would happen but I expected a good 50 miles or so to the northwest but at least it happened which ended up in our favor. Wednesday early morning my guess some intense snow for a period of time as the moisture feed from the GOM is really good but duration will be the key in how much we get. Really cold air is what we are still missing and have not seen that blockbuster storm but over the next few weeks expecting much colder air fighting with some decent warmth over Florida and just hope we are on the correct side of the storm.