Nail Biter Storm 1/24 - 1/26/23

[tron777]

Here is our new thread for the nail biter coming Tues night thru Thurs of next week. Discuss!

[tron777]

18Z Euro was a tick SE from the 12Z run passing the low SE of us but still not enough for Cincinnati. Still snow to rain to snow. Nice hit from IND over to Dayton though.

18Z GFS still not budging tracking the low from IND to Detroit. 18Z GEFS also ticked NW tracking the low from Paducah to just a hair north of Cincinnati.

18Z NAM is just like the 18Z GFS.

18Z RGEM ticked SE tracking the low form Memphis to Lexington into the Apps (OH, KY, WV border).

So for now... the call still stands. Snow Tues night after midnight, changing to rain on Wed, then back to snow sometime Wed night with back end snow for everyone on Thurs.

[tpweather]

18Z Euro was a tick SE from the 12Z run passing the low SE of us but still not enough for Cincinnati. Still snow to rain to snow. Nice hit from IND over to Dayton though.

18Z GFS still not budging tracking the low from IND to Detroit. 18Z GEFS also ticked NW tracking the low from Paducah to just a hair north of Cincinnati.

18Z NAM is just like the 18Z GFS.

18Z RGEM ticked SE tracking the low form Memphis to Lexington into the Apps (OH, KY, WV border).

So for now... the call still stands. Snow Tues night after midnight, changing to rain on Wed, then back to snow sometime Wed night with back end snow for everyone on Thurs.

Great call Les and we just wait and see which model will cave.

[MJSun]

I'm actually hoping nothing happens that gets XU to close classes Thursday - because then the 6 week class I teach gets pushed forward a week- I just want it over with. LOL

[airwolf76]

the Sunday storm was a bust for me . I think this one may deliver a few inches. its suppose to be more prolonged snow before turning over

[cincy bud]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Preble Co and the Dayton crew. 4"-7" Tuesday night into Wednesday. That watch is a mile away from me so time to get more snowblower gas.

[cincy bud]

6" for the Sunday storm.

[Bgoney]

From Oz EU,NAM, GFS, showing our front end snow early Wednesday morning before the dry slot/rain moves in

floop-gfs-2023012300.prateptype_cat-imp.us_ov.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2023012300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ov.gif

floop-nam-2023012300.ref1km_ptype.us_ov.gif

[tron777]

Good morning folks... here are the current placement of the Watches:

Watches.PNG

[tpweather]

Good Morning and just a touch of snow overnight on top of the garbage cans but roads are just fine. Models are in agreement about the next system though some difference on the exact track. Today a January day with clouds and a few flurries and temps in the mid 30's. Tuesday will be a little nicer with some sunshine ahead of the next system. Temps will probably end up in the 38-42 degree range and went a little lower because of snow melt. Then late Tuesday night into Wednesday is the next headache lol. Will have more on this system later and my guess the models will be similar but two things I am watching that could have some effects on the storm though at the moment Snow-Rain-Snow seems the most likely outcome.

[tron777]

Models are in decent agreement on either tracking the low thru NKY or over SE Indiana. None of those are all snow solutions obviously for us. I'm going to wait for a couple more rounds of runs before throwing any numbers out there for snow accumulations. I think we will see some accumulations before the flip to rain then light accumulations with the back end snow showers. One of those deals pretty much. Another heavy, wet heart attack snow though for sure whatever we do see.

[Bgoney]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

[tron777]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

That is a very nice call! Can't argue with that whatsoever. I saw Local 12 making an early call too. I believe they had 2-3" S counties. 3-5" from CVG on north and then 6"+ NW areas where the watches are posted. I thought that was pretty ballsey.

[Bgoney]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

That is a very nice call! Can't argue with that whatsoever. I saw Local 12 making an early call too. I believe they had 2-3" S counties. 3-5" from CVG on north and then 6"+ NW areas where the watches are posted. I thought that was pretty ballsey.

That is surprising, usually the TV Mets wait until 36 hours from event to throw out specific numbers

[tpweather]

Just a little fun fact and Bgoney mentioned this last week I believe that China and India were in the middle of a cold wave. A city in China named Moha recorded a temperature of -63 F. This is the lowest recorded temperature ever in China.

[BookNerdCarp]

700 WLW this morning was throwing out 3-6

[House of Cards]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

Can you wonderful folks help me out more with actual timing? My son works as an apprentice electrician and his current job site is up by the Dayton Airport. He departs here around 6am to drive to the job. This storm sounds like that might make the drive a real issue for him at that time? Also, hate the idea of him fighting his way up there if the foreman ends up calling off their workday. Any insight from you guys would certainly be appreciated.

[cloudy72]

I'm always skeptical on these hyped-up storms from the media and NWS. As we saw yesterday our biggest snows always seem to be unexpected overachievers. Waiting for the 12z suite to come in before I make an initial guess on amounts. At first glance it looks like a snow dump Tues night-Wed AM followed by dry slot/light mix-rain on Wednesday with the main thump for round 2 (Wed) hitting the IND-FWA-DTW corridor.

[tron777]

12Z NAM is really amp'ed up and NW tracking the low from Paducah, to Evansville to west of IND to Toledo. NAM still gives us 3-4" before the changeover to rain despite the low being that far West..

[tron777]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

Can you wonderful folks help me out more with actual timing? My son works as an apprentice electrician and his current job site is up by the Dayton Airport. He departs here around 6am to drive to the job. This storm sounds like that might make the drive a real issue for him at that time? Also, hate the idea of him fighting his way up there if the foreman ends up calling off their workday. Any insight from you guys would certainly be appreciated.

Hey Dave! My best guess attm is snow moves in sometime after midnight then changes over to light rain from S to N after 8am. I would change over down here long before Dayton would as an example. Guessing that Dayton could changeover late morning to around lunchtime. But again, the strength of this system will determine the amount of WAA we get and the track of the surface low so some changes are possible as we continue to look at the data. I didn't name this thread the nail biter for nothing!

[tron777]

I'm always skeptical on these hyped-up storms from the media and NWS. As we saw yesterday our biggest snows always seem to be unexpected overachievers. Waiting for the 12z suite to come in before I make an initial guess on amounts. At first glance it looks like a snow dump Tues night-Wed AM followed by dry slot/light mix-rain on Wednesday with the main thump for round 2 (Wed) hitting the IND-FWA-DTW corridor.

I agree Mike... we've been screwed over by WAA so many times. Every once and a while we score from it ala yesterday's system. But that low was very weak while (as you know) this one is going to be much stronger.

[House of Cards]

Models differ on exact low trek but are in agreement it tracks over Cvg or west . Best Guess atm is 1-3" for counties bordering the river, and 2-5" for counties north of that to I70. Higher amounts further north out of cvgland

Can you wonderful folks help me out more with actual timing? My son works as an apprentice electrician and his current job site is up by the Dayton Airport. He departs here around 6am to drive to the job. This storm sounds like that might make the drive a real issue for him at that time? Also, hate the idea of him fighting his way up there if the foreman ends up calling off their workday. Any insight from you guys would certainly be appreciated.

Hey Dave! My best guess attm is snow moves in sometime after midnight then changes over to light rain from S to N after 8am. I would change over down here long before Dayton would as an example. Guessing that Dayton could changeover late morning to around lunchtime. But again, the strength of this system will determine the amount of WAA we get and the track of the surface low so some changes are possible as we continue to look at the data. I didn't name this thread the nail biter for nothing!

Thanks, that does help a lot. I may ask again as we progress, but at this point I'll talk to him about what happens if he can't get there from here...

[airwolf76]

they are backing off for my area now. saying 1-3" starting around mid morning Wednesday

[dce]

12Z NAM is really amp'ed up and NW tracking the low from Paducah, to Evansville to west of IND to Toledo. NAM still gives us 3-4" before the changeover to rain despite the low being that far West..

All the models are showing that front end thump. That is probably going to be our chance at a moderate snow event. I can't see the models shifting southeast with the low at this point. They have been very consistent, for a change, for several days now. I do like the consistency of the front end dump as well. All the models are showing a nice batch of moisture before the warm air wins out.

[tron777]

BG Snowtalk!