January 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Finished shoveling an not a bad snow to shovel. The GEFS ensemble model has run and its much further south and east with the mid-week system. One reason its not as strong. This has been the trend so lets see how the Euro does in a few mintues

[tpweather]

The Euro is in and really this model is staying the course on the path but keeps getting a little weaker each day. This is good news as it would only come so far north before heading more northeast. Trends are what we are looking at this far out and today was really neither good or bad but the status quo for the most part. Time to prepare for the game and need to get my headset ready to call in plays. Somehow they never listen lol

[tron777]

Dumb question: With the over achieving snow here today, will that help to keep temperatures lower over the next few days? Which could have a hand in helping keep things colder for the next storm?

Just wishful thinking on my part, as we can never have enough snow!

Hey Curtis! I don't think it will have much of an impact. When does the low get cranked up will determine how far NW or SE that it tracks. A lot of warm air advection too so it will be strong enough IMO to overcome the snow covered ground. Second, the snow is settling and melting / compacting today now that we're above freezing. A few snow showers tonight and tomorrow and we may even hit the 40s on Tuesday so much of the snow will probably be gone anyway prior to the next system rolling in.

[tron777]

12Z UKMET came NW now tracking the low thru Central KY into SE Ohio.

[tron777]

12Z EPS Mean has the low also going thru Central KY into NE Ohio

[tpweather]

WHO DEY!!!!! Back to our regular programming for the next system. Not much to say at this point but the only thing is the piece of energy is rather strong and that can be good and bad for us. Will back at halftime of the next game.

[tron777]

WHO DEY!!!!! Back to our regular programming for the next system. Not much to say at this point but the only thing is the piece of energy is rather strong and that can be good and bad for us. Will back at halftime of the next game.

Absolutely! An overachieving snow storm today and a dominating Bengals win. Can't ask for anything more right now.

[BookNerdCarp]

New thread for MidWeek storm?

[tron777]

New thread for MidWeek storm?

Sure. I'll get it started!

https://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?t=217

[airwolf76]

one thing I notice is more activity the rest of the month you will see something every 3/4 days. the cold air looks marginal but we will probably see more white then wet the next couple weeks

[tron777]

one thing I notice is more activity the rest of the month you will see something every 3/4 days. the cold air looks marginal but we will probably see more white then wet the next couple weeks

Late Jan or at the beginning of Feb, we maybe doing this all over again with another one of those nail biter type systems.

[tpweather]

I know we have had a few systems and the extended has been put to the side. More snow cover will be to the north and west after this system so how does this affect the pattern later this week into early next week. Looks more like a zonal flow next weekend into early next week so you have weaker systems in the pipeline. If you get these weaker systems you can still get that southwest wind over colder air and the snow/rain line is usually a little further south especially in late January and early February. I know this weekend the Euro was calling for a big warm up but I believe that models is starting to back off some and I agree. The gfs was probably to cold and is heading towards a more seasonal pattern in terms of temps. Way too early for any forecast of a storm as there will pieces of energy around but which one will take off and when is almost impossible this far out.

[tron777]

I know we have had a few systems and the extended has been put to the side. More snow cover will be to the north and west after this system so how does this affect the pattern later this week into early next week. Looks more like a zonal flow next weekend into early next week so you have weaker systems in the pipeline. If you get these weaker systems you can still get that southwest wind over colder air and the snow/rain line is usually a little further south especially in late January and early February. I know this weekend the Euro was calling for a big warm up but I believe that models is starting to back off some and I agree. The gfs was probably to cold and is heading towards a more seasonal pattern in terms of temps. Way too early for any forecast of a storm as there will pieces of energy around but which one will take off and when is almost impossible this far out.

The next one to me in the pipeline is like Sat night thru Sun night. Right now models favor rain, maybe some snow for the area but like you, I'm more focused on the current system. I am also wondering if the snowpack will assist with a better track for that system I am speaking of. We shall see!

[airwolf76]

long range GFS showing a big dawg for early February

[tron777]

long range GFS showing a big dawg for early February

It's been showing up on and off for sure!

[tpweather]

Going to talk a little about the system later this weekend. Doing this while I wait on info from the mid-day models concerning the system on Wednesday. A true arctic front is working its way south later this week and with a good dose of snow just to the north and west of us this kind of front can push further south than models show and the reason is they usually have not computed snow of the ground in the current output. Once we get to Thursday with the snow on the ground I believe models will show this front further south and chances of snow go up for us.

[winterstormjoe]

Going to talk a little about the system later this weekend. Doing this while I wait on info from the mid-day models concerning the system on Wednesday. A true arctic front is working its way south later this week and with a good dose of snow just to the north and west of us this kind of front can push further south than models show and the reason is they usually have not computed snow of the ground in the current output. Once we get to Thursday with the snow on the ground I believe models will show this front further south and chances of snow go up for us.

Hey Tim, as that Arctic air tries to move out of here in time for the warm up on Sunday with rain (according to the GFS) you have to wonder if the snow cover along with the snow showers later Thursday and Friday adding a little more to the ground could affect Sunday's precip type? Then as I've read some of the post on here and seen the models for mid week next week I'm statring to lick my chops on that one. The 0Z GFS definitely has some more nail biters over the next two weeks.

[tpweather]

Going to talk a little about the system later this weekend. Doing this while I wait on info from the mid-day models concerning the system on Wednesday. A true arctic front is working its way south later this week and with a good dose of snow just to the north and west of us this kind of front can push further south than models show and the reason is they usually have not computed snow of the ground in the current output. Once we get to Thursday with the snow on the ground I believe models will show this front further south and chances of snow go up for us.

Hey Tim, as that Arctic air tries to move out of here in time for the warm up on Sunday with rain (according to the GFS) you have to wonder if the snow cover along with the snow showers later Thursday and Friday adding a little more to the ground could affect Sunday's precip type? Then as I've read some of the post on here and seen the models for mid week next week I'm statring to lick my chops on that one. The 0Z GFS definitely has some more nail biters over the next two weeks.

Hey Joe, you are correct and with a decent snow pack to the north and west the front will be able to move further south. Then next week I see some bigger storms as the arctic air will be at least nearby and a nice warm ridge over Florida. This kind of set up can fire up some big storms and especially the east coast. Way to early but the set up this far out bodes well for a bigger storm or two.

[tron777]

The pattern is absolutely loaded with systems to track! Are we on the good side or bad side of the boundary for snow lovers? A lot of nail biters for sure are in our future. Concerning this weekends system, the SE Ridge is fighting the front off from dropping in here so it's rain. We need the SE ridge to get knocked down a peg for an all snow event with that one.

[tpweather]

The pattern is absolutely loaded with systems to track! Are we on the good side or bad side of the boundary for snow lovers? A lot of nail biters for sure are in our future. Concerning this weekends system, the SE Ridge is fighting the front off from dropping in here so it's rain. We need the SE ridge to get knocked down a peg for an all snow event with that one.

May be the first time in awhile that we are seeing things different on a storm Les. I believe the arctic front slides south of here and since the storm on Sunday is not overly strong we are on the correct side of the front for overriding precip and that would be in the form of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this but that is my first call on how the Sunday system may play out.

[tron777]

The pattern is absolutely loaded with systems to track! Are we on the good side or bad side of the boundary for snow lovers? A lot of nail biters for sure are in our future. Concerning this weekends system, the SE Ridge is fighting the front off from dropping in here so it's rain. We need the SE ridge to get knocked down a peg for an all snow event with that one.

May be the first time in awhile that we are seeing things different on a storm Les. I believe the arctic front slides south of here and since the storm on Sunday is not overly strong we are on the correct side of the front for overriding precip and that would be in the form of snow. We have plenty of time to watch this but that is my first call on how the Sunday system may play out.

That is very possible Tim that the front can get south of here, but the SE Ridge is def a concern. The wave will ride the baroclinic boundary wherever that happens to be. What I think is that the front gets hung up to our NW so it's rain but after that system, then the cold should be able to get in here for future systems to work with. No doubt, since we are 5 days or so away from the weekend system, changes can still occur for sure.

[snowbo]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

[tpweather]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

Great question. So far no and if we continue to see systems rolling across the nation we should be fine. If the Polar Vortex makes a stronger push later next month we may need to worry about that but once you get into later February suppression is less of a concern but not completely gone.

[tron777]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

None whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.

[airwolf76]

Any suppression concerns after the Artic air arrives?

None whatsoever from me thanks to the SE Ridge. I'm way more concerned about systems tracking too far NW like the current one coming in. The global models are running much colder then their ensemble counterparts at the present time. We'll just have to wait and see how things look after Wednesday's low is by us.

totally agree with this. I am more worried about a SE ridge then anything. still think the OV in general will be in prime spot for a big dawg in the next couple weeks though.