July 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z Euro gives CVG 0.62" of rain tonight. It has not shifted south like all other models have done. I'll be amazed if the Euro gets this one right to be honest.

I'll give it a 30% chance of widely scattered t-showers for AVland, much like the whole week has been except for a 6 hour period yesterday. We were luck to get yesterdays rains as the front just wouldn't budge in Central and Southern KY

I am watching the next MCS developing in MO near STL again so we'll have to wait a few more hours here and see if this moves ENE to get more of us involved, or is it more of an E or ESE heading which would be more south then anything else as most models are suggesting minus the Euro.

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro gives CVG 0.62" of rain tonight. It has not shifted south like all other models have done. I'll be amazed if the Euro gets this one right to be honest.

I'll give it a 30% chance of widely scattered t-showers for AVland, much like the whole week has been except for a 6 hour period yesterday. We were luck to get yesterdays rains as the front just wouldn't budge in Central and Southern KY

I am watching the next MCS developing in MO near STL again so we'll have to wait a few more hours here and see if this moves ENE to get more of us involved, or is it more of an E or ESE heading which would be more south then anything else as most models are suggesting minus the Euro.

I think that will be tough to get an MCS in here unless it builds northward. Storm movement should be ese and currently the northern extent is parallel with cincy. But the chance for isolated storms as mentioned is what I'm leaning toward

Screenshot_20220728-153739_Chrome.jpg

[tron777]

Cincy will be okay if it goes more east, but I agree, any southward movement at all and our thoughts of getting missed would be correct. ILN has POPS up to 100% for me so apparently they do not think CVG will get missed. Anyway, it's going to be close.

[Bgoney]

An East/west stalled front and a nocturnal LLJ running parallel to it equals this.

Screenshot_20220728-165050_Twitter.jpg

[cloudy72]

Cincy will be okay if it goes more east, but I agree, any southward movement at all and our thoughts of getting missed would be correct. ILN has POPS up to 100% for me so apparently they do not think CVG will get missed. Anyway, it's going to be close.

Even has 80% chance up here lol Guess I was wrong haha!

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/ohio-ta ... XUPHR4KUQ/

https://weather.com/news/news/2022-07-2 ... =hp-slot-2

Sadly, so far 8 have died in eastern KY floodwaters.

[tron777]

88 today at CVG so we fell short for the contest. 86 today imby. Clouds are increasing now ahead of that next MCS. It is tracking far enough north that the Cincy Tri-state should see some rain tonight. Light amounts as one goes north, heavier as one goes south. I'll go with up to 0.50" possible for our S counties. 0.25-0.50" from N to S across the Metro and N of the Metro, expecting less then a tenth of an inch. Let's see the totals tomorrow to see how this idea looks.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[Bgoney]

Nothing here overnight. Pleasant three days upcoming before slight chances of showers for the first few days of next week with the better chances for rain remaining in Kentucky during that time

[tron777]

Myself and CVG also remained dry. Still in a D0 for drought in some areas, but the last couple of days of rain esp in KY was not factored in so we'll check it again next week for a more accurate update. Cannot rule out a shower as the front comes thru today but most should be dry. Saturday is AWESOME! Make plans outdoors! Sunday isn't bad, but rain chances lurk in the afternoon. Still thinking Monday and Tues of next week has the best chances, esp in KY as Bgoney mentioned before the heat tries to flex its muscle again. Could see 90+ again by Wed and Thurs of next week.

[cloudy72]

El zippo here as well - I should have stuck with my initial call here LOL

[tron777]

El zippo here as well - I should have stuck with my initial call here LOL

As usual, this forum was right on the money originally. It looked interesting for a while but it slipped by to the SE as Bgoney mentioned and that's exactly what happened. Central and SE KY have been the jackpot zones for rainfall in the OV for this week. We'll see if that continues with the next system too before the heat returns for a bit.

[tron777]

0Z Euro sure doesn't hold much promise for rain for CVG Land, and the 6Z GFS has the best chance for most of us on Tuesday. Everything stays south until then. A front drops in from the NW, tries to make it thru but can't so if the GFS is right, Tues is a nice chance prior to the heat coming in. I am still keeping in chance POPS for late Sun and Mon though. Models have not been the best in an overall sense.

[Bgoney]

Myself and CVG also remained dry. Still in a D0 for drought in some areas, but the last couple of days of rain esp in KY was not factored in so we'll check it again next week for a more accurate update. Cannot rule out a shower as the front comes thru today but most should be dry. Saturday is AWESOME! Make plans outdoors! Sunday isn't bad, but rain chances lurk in the afternoon. Still thinking Monday and Tues of next week has the best chances, esp in KY as Bgoney mentioned before the heat tries to flex its muscle again. Could see 90+ again by Wed and Thurs of next week.

My guess for the D0 would be no change, even with the weekly rain added . In general , most of Avland for the week got .50"-1.0, some a little more , some a little less, I don't think that's enough to remove any D0 locally, and think that it will likely expand if an 1.0+ isn't met for early next week. Les has mentioned before that the rains we have been getting have been "just enough" to keep things mostly on the green side, not sure how much longer we can keep getting buy with that being the case

[cloudy72]

Maybe this will be summers last hurrah?

814temp.conus.png

[tron777]

Myself and CVG also remained dry. Still in a D0 for drought in some areas, but the last couple of days of rain esp in KY was not factored in so we'll check it again next week for a more accurate update. Cannot rule out a shower as the front comes thru today but most should be dry. Saturday is AWESOME! Make plans outdoors! Sunday isn't bad, but rain chances lurk in the afternoon. Still thinking Monday and Tues of next week has the best chances, esp in KY as Bgoney mentioned before the heat tries to flex its muscle again. Could see 90+ again by Wed and Thurs of next week.

My guess for the D0 would be no change, even with the weekly rain added . In general , most of Avland for the week got .50"-1.0, some a little more , some a little less, I don't think that's enough to remove any D0 locally, and think that it will likely expand if an 1.0+ isn't met for early next week. Les has mentioned before that the rains we have been getting have been "just enough" to keep things mostly on the green side, not sure how much longer we can keep getting buy with that being the case

I think it's going to boil down to this... Do we get that big massive heat ridge over a good chunk of the country that a lot of guidance has been advertising developing later next week and beyond? 500 MB Heights have been shown to be in that 594 to 600 DM range. The closer you get to 600 DM, the closer to 100 degrees you get. I think we've had plenty of rain so I am ruling out 100. However, heights in the 594 to 597 range are common in summer so more of that 90 to 95 degree heat is what I am thinking occurs here. West of us will of course be hotter as it has been all summer. Now, if some guidance is right and if temps go up a notch from what I've posted here, then the drought is def going to expand. I'm not completely sold one way or the other as of yet. The trends have been for models to overdo the heat and I think they are already beginning to back down a bit from earlier runs.

[tron777]

Maybe this will be summers last hurrah?


814temp.conus.png

My thoughts on this are yes. I think summer's back is broken after mid Aug and we'll start to see the heat retrograde more to the West and we will see more storminess, cooler weather because of the trough over the East. This will be a slow step down process but I think beginning in mid Aug, we'll start to see those types of changes occur. Let's see what happens over the next week or two with the guidance.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Dews are finally dropping... 64 now at CVG so this afternoon should start to feel much better.

[Bgoney]

Been an awesome monsoon season for the SWestern states and that will continue in the extended. Also plenty of moisture for the Canadian prairies and more to come there also.

[winterstormjoe]

Maybe this will be summers last hurrah?


814temp.conus.png

My thoughts on this are yes. I think summer's back is broken after mid Aug and we'll start to see the heat retrograde more to the West and we will see more storminess, cooler weather because of the trough over the East. This will be a slow step down process but I think beginning in mid Aug, we'll start to see those types of changes occur. Let's see what happens over the next week or two with the guidance.

I'm just wondering as we head towards September that we go in to a rather dry and warm period in September and October. I believe it's been a few years where we had 90's late summer/early fall and it seems like we been going through these upside down seasons where winter wants to hang on longer and summer too. But coming back to the present I'm with Les where the models seem to advertise big heat only to get knocked back a bit when the time comes as the NW flow retrogrades the heat back to the SW. At least I'm hoping for that as these hot and higher dew points are overwhelming. Getting older doesn't help either! Lol Lol

[tron777]

[tron777]

Maybe this will be summers last hurrah?


814temp.conus.png

My thoughts on this are yes. I think summer's back is broken after mid Aug and we'll start to see the heat retrograde more to the West and we will see more storminess, cooler weather because of the trough over the East. This will be a slow step down process but I think beginning in mid Aug, we'll start to see those types of changes occur. Let's see what happens over the next week or two with the guidance.

I'm just wondering as we head towards September that we go in to a rather dry and warm period in September and October. I believe it's been a few years where we had 90's late summer/early fall and it seems like we been going through these upside down seasons where winter wants to hang on longer and summer too. But coming back to the present I'm with Les where the models seem to advertise big heat only to get knocked back a bit when the time comes as the NW flow retrogrades the heat back to the SW. At least I'm hoping for that as these hot and higher dew points are overwhelming. Getting older doesn't help either! Lol Lol

Good afternoon Joe! I'm wondering the same and I'm waiting to make more of a call on Fall once we see how this Nina is behaving. I still see no signs of it going away at all. It is going to take a long time for it to weaken and even go neutral. Probably will during the winter at some point, but I'm speaking 2023. I think it is all systems go for La Nina thru end of 2022. With that said, we haven't seen 3 year Nina's very much so I don't have much info to go on for assistance. I guess some of it will depend on how much the tropics fire up, or don't fire up. We always have to factor that in for the next few months too.

[tron777]

Been an awesome monsoon season for the SWestern states and that will continue in the extended. Also plenty of moisture for the Canadian prairies and more to come there also.

Nice to see some drought areas getting that rain. Lake Meade needs a lot of help! I saw where there was some impressive flash flooding in Vegas too (I believe it was yesterday?)

[Bgoney]

Someone mention LaNina? This should put things in perspective to how the month of July has gone for LaNina

E6HP9aB.jpg

LOtn2cF.gif