Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[Trevor]

All snow by 10pm with 20 degrees.

[tron777]

Heavy snow now for CVG finally around 10pm range. Hooray!

[Trevor]

Nice deformation band showing up on this run.

[tpweather]

Interesting run by the nam and a couple of small items but they can end up being huge depending where you live. The storm like most will waffle in intensity but this one stays pretty much the same from run to run. Timing and early on the nam is a tad slower than the earlier run but ends up in a similar spot later on Thursday. Just going by the model and nothing else we are talking about just a tad stronger but about 20 miles further southeast. Yes its a minor trend but one that leads to more confidence this is going to be such a headache on Thursday.

[Trevor]

Snow wraps up by 1am. Couple inches on the backside.

[tpweather]

Trev,also if the map is correct with the snow the ratios will be increasing from your normal 10-1 and would not be surprised if we get to 15-1.

[tpweather]

St Louis and a place Les mentioned earlier is down to 22. Going to be a slow fall today but the local forecast has 21 at 4pm. Of course mid-day we usually see a stop to dropping temps and can even rise a degree or two but will be interesting what that temp is at 4pm.

[Bgoney]

Trev,also if the map is correct with the snow the ratios will be increasing from your normal 10-1 and would not be surprised if we get to 15-1.


I think at the very end we ma may see those ratios but when it starts in the beginning i would expect it to be fairly gritty for a time and rather low ratios

[tpweather]

With large systems and not talking strength but how widespread this storm covers there is going to be snow busts. Never seen a larger storm not have busts and models can only do so much for a wide area. Two places that could have these busts from the current forecast is near Indy especially northwest side where does the second wave go and do they end the precip a little earlier than predicted which would cut down snow total forecasts. Then I believe just northwest of the the local tri-state and probably parts of southeast Indiana up into Butler county and towards Dayton the precip may change to all snow a couple of hours quicker and that can lead to busts with higher totals. Again this will be a now cast but at this point where I see the busts may happen this far out.

[young pup]

One thing I saw was a possible lull in the action between rain an ice. Hopefully crews can get out and get some salt down. I know wishful thinking.

[tpweather]

So if we want more in the way of snow I believe the second wave just needs to be slower in arriving. Models have hinted at that but not to the point that you can change much in the forecast. Give me that longer break between waves is still at the top of my list and how the precip types play out. I know probably done hearing about that part but I have seen so many storms bust as well because of the duration between waves of low pressure and seen it both ways where it is less time and also more time between the two.

[dce]

With large systems and not talking strength but how widespread this storm covers there is going to be snow busts. Never seen a larger storm not have busts and models can only do so much for a wide area. Two places that could have these busts from the current forecast is near Indy especially northwest side where does the second wave go and do they end the precip a little earlier than predicted which would cut down snow total forecasts. Then I believe just northwest of the the local tri-state and probably parts of southeast Indiana up into Butler county and towards Dayton the precip may change to all snow a couple of hours quicker and that can lead to busts with higher totals. Again this will be a now cast but at this point where I see the busts may happen this far out.

I think that is logical thinking and reasonable. Like you said though, with these large storms it's really difficult. Usually what we think is going to happen doesn't. There is going to be a really sharp line between snow and sleet with the second wave. Whoever is just north of the sleet looks to get very heavy snow for a period of time. Right now that looks to be Butler and Warren counties on north. You make very good points.

[BookNerdCarp]

Just catching up. So my hood doesn’t really see anything until later tomorrow?

[Bgoney]

NAM smorgasbord accumulation . An improvement from previos run for most of AV land

ma.PNG

[Trevor]

Trev,also if the map is correct with the snow the ratios will be increasing from your normal 10-1 and would not be surprised if we get to 15-1.


I think at the very end we ma may see those ratios but when it starts in the beginning i would expect it to be fairly gritty for a time and rather low ratios

I agree with Bgoney. Ratios will be a mess during the transition.

[mainevilleweather]

NAM smorgasbord accumulation . An improvement from previos run for most of AV land




ma.PNG

We are not far from getting good snows. Just need that cold air to move in a little quicker and we are money. (wishful thinking, but hey why not!)

[Trevor]

Just catching up. So my hood doesn’t really see anything until later tomorrow?

You will be seeing freezing rain starting early tomorrow. Probably between 6-9am.

[Ryan]

You can see real "on the ground" conditions of Indiana Snow plows from INDOT's website: https://511in.org/. In the layers box you can select "Plow Cameras", then for each set of images you can look through timestamps.

They drop regular pictures throughout their routes. You can already see differences in conditions from NW to SW.

[tron777]

0.18" as of 10am at CVG

[dce]

The 3K NAM.

[tron777]

The 3K NAM.

That's the old 6Z run.

[tron777]

12Z RGEM not falling in line with everyone else changing CVG over tof rz rain after 4am.

[Bgoney]

6z EU not much change from 0z concerning sleet/snow accumulations

eus.PNG

[dce]

The 3K NAM.

That's the old 6Z run.

Thanks for noticing that! I meant to do the 12z.

[tpweather]

12Z RGEM not falling in line with everyone else changing CVG over tof rz rain after 4am.

It makes sense looking at the model because it has such a small window between waves and really keeps precip going much of the time. So if the model is correct about time between waves it could score a win.