Nice video by Brian and he mentioned everything we talked about on here and I agree the wind will be a bigger story and even if we get some snow that would most likely accumulate on roofs,grass and the streets mainly wet unless you are talking very early Thursday morning and also Thursday night into...

Always loved the NAO. Upper lows can be very dynamic and this looks to be the case. Again being under the low is where the coldest of air will be that can support snow. Will that be locally and as of now close by. The winds may be the bigger story mid-week and beyond. Looks like the pattern is progr...

18Z GFS nails AV Land with the deformation zone Wed night into Thurs morning, next week. 974 MB low lol Wow! Save this one for the wallpaper. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png Funny when you see a set up like this in later November normally you think of the Great Lakes area which are known to have thes...

Some interesting eye candy locally from the 12z suite. Only thing I can say with relative confidence is , book an early ski vacation to the mountains of West Virginia for next weekend and the following week It seems like the GFS gave up on the cold pattern early but IMO it is an outlier right now. ...

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2024 10:44 am A lot of people would look out the window today and think that it's a bad day. Not me. Love this kind of weather and the below visible satellite pic too!


1kmv.gif

Les 10000000 p/c agree

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought. :) https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Midwest Good morning 1.9 inches of rain here. Needed the muck boots the last couple days when feeding the livestock. I...

Good Morning and we are just about half way through the month and without another drop of rain we will be at least average which is something new. Before I start looking at items this morning one caught my eye and somehow I missed this from last October. A underwater volcano off the Japan coast last...

Good afternoon all! 1.34" now at CVG as a few more showers have passed thru. I am in the 1.30's here as is the Boone Co mesonet - 1.36" We can a break (although cloudy) until next week. Mon night into Wed is our next rain chance. Then we will be tracking the upper trough swinging thru, sh...

Good Afternoon and a little surprise today as the sun peaked out for about 10-15 minutes and just got a heavy shower with thunder. I thought a drizzle would be all and maybe a light shower but that sun can no doubt work its magic.

Good morning, AV family! Sorry it has been a long silence from me but just been tending to everyday stuff. :) Hopefully I will now be able to post more often. Looks like lots of exciting changes upcoming! Picked up about 0.93" here so far. Hope all is doing well! Good to hear from you Mike and...

Good Morning Les. Yes things are looking better and especially around Japan. Over the past few years the pacific tropics have been way down in terms of storms but this year back to at least normal. To me this was one reason the waters around Japan remained warm almost all year round. Hopefully with ...

Good Evening and a nice evening to hear the rain on the roof. Really not much to add as we continue to be quite busy and this seems to continue next week. Do we get into a weak La Nina or does it really matter much. No changing the winter forecast as precip still looks nice for us but temps will be ...

The Canadian has a clipper diving down at the end of it's run on the 23rd. Many changes, of course, yet to come from this and other models, but nice to see this time of year nonetheless. Clippers used to be our bread and butter for a lot of winters many many years ago. That pattern has disappeared....

12Z GFS keeps Sara much weaker on this run and there is no interaction with the trough and Sara. So we get a cold frontal passage, wind, temp drop and a few flurries as the upper level energy swings thru. This would be towards the end of next week. Les I keep having a hard time with these tropical ...

Les I am just waiting for that day when its windy,38 degrees and rainy. This is normally a sign that some decent weather for us snow lovers is getting closer.

Les that deep layer moisture is from the leftover moisture of Rafael and that has no doubt increased the totals. I thought a few days back that the moisture from that system would not be part of the incoming system but really a 180 and you can see that moisture moving from Mississippi into Tn this m...

November so far and yes above normal in precip and that will only increase in the next 36 hours and temp wise we about 9 degrees above normal. I thought we would be in 3-5 degree above normal and that could still happen with a nice cold shot and precip wise doing exactly as I thought and maybe even ...

Not looking good for Fl. Hope it goes further into the Yucatán before it turns. If not, a cat one ,two or low end 3 is on the table for Fl This system has a better shot of hitting the mainland than the last few which were never close. Why is this different and one reason is a high pressure that may...

Les the main item of your post imo is the mjo. We have seen years where many items looked wonderful for a decent winter and the mjo cancels everything out and that is why the mjo really is one of the major players every year. If we can just keep it into phase 7-2 much of winter that is wonderful com...

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also...

Good Morning and a nice day for mid-November. Going to raise my totals on rainfall which I should of on the last system. Going 0.75-1.25. Why and a few reasons is the system out west is a tad stronger than I thought plus there is leftover moisture from Rafael that is hanging around the GOM and also ...

Lots of uncertainty in the extended range due to blocking, a cut off upper low and the tropics. How will the period after 11/20 evolve? Todays 12Z GFS has the cut off low coming in providing several days of cool weather and showers. Then once the core of the upper low swings thru, first flakes of t...

Uncertainty is an understatement. What do models struggle with the most in forecasting? Exactly What you see coming up in the next 7-10 days , high latitude blocking (-NAO) and tropical mischief. Let the games continue!! That is the perfect recipe for incorrect forecasting. Models love doing the 18...

Good Morning maybe a day below normal which is few and far between. Les I agree about the next system and I raised totals as well with 0.33-0.75 and again I believe most folks get at least the lower end and a few a tad above the high end. Nice to see systems able to produce some decent rains and jus...

Good Evening and I agree about all the above posts. The Shillitos's display was great and both my kids were able to enjoy that but I probably enjoyed it more watching them. I love Home Alone and yes corny but something about that movie I have always loved. Yes I believe in Santa Claus and that will ...