I see the change for the severe output. The area in western Kentucky and Tn no doubt looks like a place that may see the most tornado's later Wednesday and early Thursday. We are not out of the woods either but that could be quite explosive imo.

I agree Les and that is why I moved my numbers up and have 6-8 inches locally. Rare event to say the least and yes sometimes folks say that and its like don't you remember last year when this happened. That is not the case here and though the event has not started yet and really its the final ...

What a wonderful video by Brian and when he harps on something you know its going to be a big event. The severe weather has always been a concern of mine for several days and this is similar in some ways this past Sunday but also different in other ways. The storms are going to come to a stop or ...

Great post Bgoney and if we get near these amounts not only will we see flooding that we see quite often in the spring but many other areas that seldom see flooding. Basements across the area will take a beating and sump pumps working overtime. I remember one year where Falmouth,Ky got hammered on a ...

Made it through the 1st 3 months of the year and how do we stand compared to normal. At CVG precip is about 1/10above normal so I considered that normal and temps around 1/2 degree below normal so once again in the normal range imo.

What does the next 3 months bring and the only item we know of so ...

Very similar setup meteorologically to March 1997, that was a two day event, this will be at least 4 days.


Yes and how long are the breaks in the rain each day will also determine flooding issues. Louisville NWS mentioned March of 1997 but also March of 1964 and January of 1937. I do remember ...

Good Morning and this morning not much change concerning the severe chances or heavy rains over the next 5-6 days. Saw where the Louisville NWS talking about possibly being in the top 5 of rain events and those ended up with big time flooding on the Ohio River. Like Les mentioned the other day the ...

Yesterday with the severe storms and yes 3 tornado's confirmed locally temps and dewpoints did not rise much. Different story on Wednesday and would not be surprised if we a few 80's locally. When I see a big jump in temps and dews this always concerns me for severe weather. Many other factors but ...

18Z GFS was overall slower too. The system exit is not until Monday the 7th as some mixed light rain and snow. :lol:


The euro has been steady so far Les and yes higher than the gfs locally. This will be interesting to say the least and hopefully folks will pay attention and yes most folks will ...

My guess we will have several discussions on this topic and I will add to that with this post. Trends and yes we always talk about trends in weather forecasting. Do they always give us the perfect forecast and no but a trend that continues to develop is something we must always look at when trying ...

Of course April 3rd 1974 is my number one weather event of all time and it had to be special if it knocked out some winter events including a blizzard. During the day it got so hot so quick and it just felt like mid-summer in early April Maybe part of that was we just came out of winter and the body ...

I agree 100p/c with the NWS on the severe chances. The pattern is one that really looks like a decent severe outbreak and one that no doubt could cause some problems in the Ohio Valley. Again this far away things can change and yes the evolution of the system will be key but many items at this point ...

Great ideal to have a separate area for the upcoming event/events for the Wednesday-Sunday period.

Great Post Les and at this point I believe this could no doubt be a much more lively severe outbreak than yesterday. I could be wrong but from what I see at the moment late Wednesday into the overnight could be quite active.

Concerning rainfall totals from Wednesday-Sunday and almost 100p/c chance ...

Major ice storm in northern Michigan. Some counties in the "tip of the mitt" have over 90% of customers without power!


I saw that and my son in Wausau,Wi mentioned yesterday they stayed around 32 or 33 degrees and the ice was not bad but he did get another 3 inches of snow. I was researching ...

The new trend for severe Wx over the last 10-20 years continues, where we see a higher percentage of severe further east in the Missouri/Tennessee/Ohio valleys and SE US, than the old areas of the plains, Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas


Great Post and yes I agree plus folks in the central plains have ...

For now, I am going with Wed as a good set up for severe wx. If things do not change, I think the ceiling could be higher then it was for this past system. Thursday offers up another chance for severe wx, but the risk is lower IMO. Then flooding rains after that thru next weekend are in the cards ...

Good morning and I thought the line of storms was a little stronger than I expected. Timing so key and not only did the storms form quickly off the west yesterday afternoon they were moving fast and was able to get into our area for the most part before the sun went down. We will find out where some ...

Looks like the storms in the Greensburg area is heading towards the Dayton area while storms in Jasper are heading more for our local area

Good Evening and the radar looking quite busy to the west of the local area. Some severe weather warnings and yes even once in awhile you see a tornado warning. These are normally the low end ones and the amount of time they are on the ground is normally small. Still you can never disregard one that ...

Good Afternoon and the weather is behaving the way it looked earlier today. Two lines of storms that will finally combine later this evening and move through rather quickly. Straight line winds the main problem but an isolated tornado is possible but with such a fast movement tornado's do have a ...

Les you mentioned some sun in parts of Illinois and also thinner clouds in southern Indiana an western Kentucky. Getting the higher sun angle will probably allow at least some partial sun this afternoon. How many hours and will check on that around 1-2pm to get a better handle on the cloud situation ...

I like the OH River counties corridor for the heaviest action right on up into the heart of the Tri-state area.


Should be an interesting period for sure. Where does the front stall is key as we know. How strong are the waves of low pressure Thursday thru Saturday is key with stronger waves ...

Les with several lows heading up the front a good 72 hours of possible rainfall. Will some totals end up less than 6 inches and yes and can some exceed more than 10 and maybe at this moment locally I would go with a general 4-6 inches which is plenty enough to cause flooding. After the system for ...

A few items to watch is how much clearing do we see locally and to the west over the next say 6 hours or so.The more sun the more unstable the atmosphere becomes. Dew points are high enough for severe weather and though only near the 60 degree mark this system no doubt is able to produce strong to ...