April Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

First week of April at the very least is looking quite wet for the lower OV. 10day qpf from the AI and EU models have gone even higher than yesterday, showing widespread 4”-7”+ for a good chunk of the region . Shifts in heaviest axis of rains sure to come but the potential for excess and or flooding rains in the mid section of the country is for now looking rather high

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[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney for getting things going for April. The 1st 10 days to me look like more of the same. Up's and down's along with an active pattern. Temps might be more of a crap shoot but a well above avg month for rain, I believe is likely.

[tpweather]

Great Maps Bgoney and if we can get those totals in the southern plains no doubt this will help them out before summer decides to take hold. We know down there many years summer can bully its way in by mid-Aprl- mid-May so getting some needed rainfall before is always a plus

[tron777]

Our 1st severe wx event for April could be around the 3-4th. CO State AI Learning as well as CIPS Analog Guidance are both showing the potential from this distance. Check out CB's overnight blog from last night to see those maps:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=70752

[MVWxObserver]

The pattern is going to be interesting for my neighborhood community's Spring Bocce ball league tournament starting the week of April 7th.

[tron777]

The pattern is going to be interesting for my neighborhood community's Spring Bocce ball league tournament starting the week of April 7th.

12Z GFS is stormy and active thru 4/7 then cool and dry for Week 1 of your tournament. In the fantasy range a cool and wet pattern after that.

[Bgoney]

Latest EU goes even higher with QPF through the 6th

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[tron777]

Wednesday, 4/2 could be our next severe wx event to deal with:

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[tron777]

Wed maybe a better set up then Sunday night IMO. We'll see. Flooding concerns are growing. WPC rainfall amounts over the next week. 6" for us. Egads!

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[Bgoney]

Wed maybe a better set up then Sunday night IMO. We'll see. Flooding concerns are growing. WPC rainfall amounts over the next week. 6" for us. Egads!


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Euro and EU-AI have been leading the way for a while with the heavy QPF for the first week of April. The GFS is now advertising the same amounts, yuck.

[tpweather]

Good morning and the old saying April showers bring May flowers and if that is the case we are going to have some giant flowers this year. By late Wednesday the action starts and could see an outbreak of severe weather once again. So the start of this is similar to today but two things are different and one being the front itself will most likely stall in the Ohio or Tn valley and the amount of moisture is even greater.

Looked at the NWS discussion and not sure I have seen this in the past but ensemble showing a 20-30 p/c chance of rainfall next week to exceed 8 inches. Sure its happened before but I can't recall at the moment. Some models showing southwest of here maybe over a foot of rainfall.

Even if we just got 1/2 of the amount flooding is going to happen but if the higher end happens no doubt flooding but flash flooding will be a concern and that is never good.

So I guess we need to gather all the animals and will build an Ark over the next 2 days. Glad to see the rain but getting those amounts in a short period of time is never good. The models will go back and forth where the heaviest rainfall will occur but heavy rain will occur both sides of the front.

[tron777]

In addition to the flooding risk, we are outlooked for severe wx on Wed and Thurs from the SPC. 30% risk on Wed and 15% risk on Thurs. I could see another Enhanced risk for Wed and a slight risk on Thurs at this time. Heavy rain threat looks to continue into next weekend as well. Models show anywhere from 6-10"+ of rain being possible from today thru next Saturday April 5th. Buckle up and if you have river interests, prepare now!

[tpweather]

Les with several lows heading up the front a good 72 hours of possible rainfall. Will some totals end up less than 6 inches and yes and can some exceed more than 10 and maybe at this moment locally I would go with a general 4-6 inches which is plenty enough to cause flooding. After the system for today is a mere dream we can probably get a somewhat better ideal where the heaviest of rains will occur for later this week. At the moment it looks like a southwest to northeast solution and no doubt this can bring some hefty totals. Sometimes when you have a more west to east situation the rainfall gets cut off somewhere south of here especially if they get pounded with storm after storm.

[tron777]

I like the OH River counties corridor for the heaviest action right on up into the heart of the Tri-state area.

[tpweather]

I like the OH River counties corridor for the heaviest action right on up into the heart of the Tri-state area.

Should be an interesting period for sure. Where does the front stall is key as we know. How strong are the waves of low pressure Thursday thru Saturday is key with stronger waves pushing heavier rains further north and west and weaker waves further south and east. Just way to early to try and pinpoint the location for the heavier rains though it looks like a widespread event for heavy rains.

[Bgoney]

Pretty good agreement from models atm for the next 7 days with QPF for AVland. 4-7”+ has been consistently shown for a while , with the potential given storm training conditions , that range could go higher

[tron777]

For now, I am going with Wed as a good set up for severe wx. If things do not change, I think the ceiling could be higher then it was for this past system. Thursday offers up another chance for severe wx, but the risk is lower IMO. Then flooding rains after that thru next weekend are in the cards. I like 4-6" of rain from Wed - Sun at this time.

[tpweather]

For now, I am going with Wed as a good set up for severe wx. If things do not change, I think the ceiling could be higher then it was for this past system. Thursday offers up another chance for severe wx, but the risk is lower IMO. Then flooding rains after that thru next weekend are in the cards. I like 4-6" of rain from Wed - Sun at this time.

I agree Les and the severe set up later Wednesday looks likely late in the day and this go around I believe tornado's seem more likely as I believe the atmosphere becomes quite unstable Wednesday. Again sill early in the ballgame but something that we should be aware of and folks can plan early.

Concerning rainfall and at the moment 4-6 inches seems reasonable and could it be lower or higher and sure because many factors go into a several day event and models this far out are going to move the totals around after each run. One item that could happen is the rain is so heavy to the southwest that it just sits in place and the feed northward gets cut off for a period of time. We are always in a place that is just far enough the GOM and far enough from the Atlantic that we usually end up on the lower end of many heavy rain events.

4-6 is nothing to sneeze at and if we can get a situation where each wave produces say .75-1.0 then it does help in the flash flooding problems. Vegetation is trying to get going but again its not May and that hurts in these heavy rain events.

I believe it will be a now cast over those 4 days and totals will no doubt vary quite a bit in the Ohio and Tn valleys. Folks that live in flood areas should start with their normal possible spring flooding precautions and most will. Streams,lakes and smaller rivers will be hit first and though the Ohio River will rise its usually several days after a big event we see possible flooding along the Ohio River.

[Bgoney]

The new trend for severe Wx over the last 10-20 years continues, where we see a higher percentage of severe further east in the Missouri/Tennessee/Ohio valleys and SE US, than the old areas of the plains, Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas

[Bgoney]

After our flooding rains the first week, we should get a much needed extended dryer spell the second week albeit on the cooler side with a NW flow

[tpweather]

The new trend for severe Wx over the last 10-20 years continues, where we see a higher percentage of severe further east in the Missouri/Tennessee/Ohio valleys and SE US, than the old areas of the plains, Oklahoma/Texas/Kansas

Great Post and yes I agree plus folks in the central plains have seen a big decrease in snow during the winters over the past 10-20 years. Again weather and climate will never sit still always change but normally folks in the central part of say Russia,China etc will normally be some of the driest areas of that country unless their is a desert involved. One item over the past say 20 years or more as been the number of just thunderstorms in our area. Growing up these happened quite often but in the past few decades the number of these storms have no doubt gone down especially in the summer months.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues the wet theme... Over 6" of rain at CVG from Wed thru Sun.

[tron777]

NWS IND has a flood watch issued from Wed evening thru Sun morning for a good chunk of their forecast area. I would expect LOU and ILN to do the same. If not today then certainly by tomorrow.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues the wet theme... Over 6" of rain at CVG from Wed thru Sun.

7.43" from the 12Z Euro. Wow!

[tron777]

On Wed, the key for me to the severe wx action is the warm front on Wed. Do we see clear skies and a lot of heating on Wed or does the warm front come thru more active with clouds / rain? If the first scenario plays out, IMHO, the ceiling on this event is going to be much higher. We had a messy set up for Sunday which kept a lid on things so to speak. Wed may not play out that way. We will know more once we get closer. I like the enhanced risk from the SPC for now. If it's messy like Sunday then the outcome would be similar. I think a moderate risk or 4 out of 5 is possible for us should a more clear and drier warm frontal passage occur earlier on Wed. Some of the data does reflect this. Some does not. This is an unknown at this time.