I've got to say the overnight models did a good job of predicting the snow today. The globals were both showing 7 to 10 inches. NAM was showing 11 for my area. We got 8.5 this morning.

Spent 3 hours shoveling then dang snow plows came through and put about 2 feet of heavy snow right in front of my driveway smh.

These last two hours have been the best of the storm so far! Getting pounded!

Easily picked up an inch this last 45 minutes to an hour.

In other news that band north of the city has been nice up here is southern Warren Co. Been kinda spinning in spot for the last hour!

So what model did we determine did the best with this system? GFS seemed to show higher amounts and north, Euro eventually came more north but seemed to have the track right. Think it was showing northern Kentucky at 11 inches or so on Fridays run?

The FV3 model says we still get another 11 inches. NAM says 8. Don't see how that's possible. Unless those back end snows are legit

Northern Kentucky seems to be the sweet spot. Those returns coming in there look real nice!

I had 2.5 on the first round. Seems like a dentrite storm right now. Little disappointed with the production haha.

Flurries here now.

Nothing in Maineville yet

Still seeing a lot of dry air in these high res models. That is a concern...

At this point does it matter much what the gfs and euro are showing since they are long range models? How good are they in the short range?

How accurate is the RAP? Smoking the area

I heard the other day that if there are stronger thunderstorms south it could pull the moisture from the north. Could this be why the European models are showing less snow up north?

CMC holding on to the southern idea... totals keep dropping from city on north.

Pretty good run! I would not want to be the met forecasting our area or DC.

It's a little concerning these foreign models are not budging on the southern track.

I'll take that 12z NAM run!

I am going to want to frame this NAM run.

That HRRR was dumping snow when it stopped. If that sleet stays south and the precip keeps feeding as it is shown, its going to be awesome!

ICON has been fairly consistent until now. This morning it had Dayton at 16 inches, now 2.

Please NAM snow God let this pan out!

Looks like the snow arrives 6hrs earlier than the 12 z run for most of the metro at this point on the 18z NAM.

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:06 pm

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:05 pm

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 3:04 pm One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

What does this mean exactly?

If you have less energy at 500mb the surface low will be weaker.

Is that good or bad for us?