January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[alexdever73]

Yep ratios will be high on that wrap around Nam hammering us on backside

[tpweather]

Les the western GOM is open for business and the only worry I have about the gulf area is a round of storms moving more west to east but I have that happening as a very low possibility

[tron777]

Not having a bully like we see often with these and talking about a coastal low is no doubt helping us in getting more snow for a longer period. If there was a stronger southeast ridge getting the southerly flow up the Carolina coast would no doubt have a decent low forming. That is not happening and this keeps the main low on the west side of the mountains for a much longer period. Yes sooner of later the energy is moving across the mountains but once it does the system is just moving out to sea.

Les we have yourself,Bgoney an myself on the same page. Need to write this down for history because it may never happen again lol

Mark it down! Even ILN concurs. That's probably even more significant.

[tpweather]

That is too funny Les

[mainevilleweather]

I'll take that 12z NAM run!

[tpweather]

I'll take that 12z NAM run!

100p/c

[tron777]

Yep ratios will be high on that wrap around Nam hammering us on backside

Totally agree! Per the text data, CVG gets an additional 0.30" of QPF that falls between midday Monday and Monday evening. With rising snow ratios, that could easily drop another 4"+ on top of the snow / sleet combo. So if the NAM at face value for CVG and the Cincy tri-state area is right, then 8-12" of snow and sleet combination occurs. Wow! One heck of a storm! Again for those folks who can remain all snow a foot or more is def on the table.

[tpweather]

Did you see the Lake Effect Snow from Lake Michigan later Monday and it comes straight south through Chicago and heads towards southwest Kentucky. That is impressive that far south

[Bgoney]

The differences in qpf distribution totals between the foreign and American models for the whole region is astonishing

[tron777]

12Z NAM text data:

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -5.2    -3.5    1024      91      96    0.24     559     540    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -4.8    -3.0    1019      91      98    0.58     558     544    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -4.3    -0.8    1011      90      98    0.76     553     544    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.4    -2.2    1009      87      34    0.12     545     538    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -3.2    -7.6    1008      90      98    0.09     538     531    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -3.2   -10.1    1016      86      76    0.20     538     526    

HAO

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -5.2    -5.0    1024      89      97    0.18     558     539    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -5.0    -3.3    1019      92      96    0.20     558     543    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -5.6    -2.3    1012      92      96    0.72     553     543    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.3    -3.9    1010      87      40    0.13     545     537    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -3.3    -7.8    1009      89      97    0.04     538     531    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -4.0   -10.4    1016      84      67    0.10     538     525    

MGY

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -5.9    -6.2    1025      87      97    0.11     557     538    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -5.3    -4.3    1020      88      96    0.09     556     541    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -6.2    -3.1    1014      91      95    0.58     553     542    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.6    -5.0    1011      87      56    0.17     545     536    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -3.1    -7.6    1009      87      94    0.02     538     532    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -4.6   -10.5    1016      87      61    0.05     537     525    
TUE  1A 07-JAN  -5.8    -9.8    1020      87      37    0.01     540     524    

DAY

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -6.0    -7.3    1025      79      95    0.04     556     537    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -5.4    -5.5    1020      83      96    0.04     555     539    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -6.3    -4.7    1015      90      96    0.36     552     540    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.6    -6.1    1011      87      82    0.14     544     535    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.5    -8.2    1009      85      94    0.01     539     531    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -4.9   -10.8    1016      87      50    0.02     537     525    
TUE  1A 07-JAN  -5.9   -10.0    1020      85      36    0.01     540     524    

CMH

MON  1A 06-JAN  -6.3    -5.6    1017      90      98    0.28     553     540    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -5.6    -5.5    1011      88      93    0.32     545     536    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -2.3    -6.8    1008      79      77    0.01     539     533    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -3.5   -10.2    1013      87      76    0.01     536     525    
TUE  1A 07-JAN  -5.1   -10.7    1018      86      33    0.01     537     523    

FGX - Big time Frz Rain concerns!

SUN  1P 05-JAN  -5.4    -3.1    1025      91      95    0.20     560     541    
SUN  7P 05-JAN  -3.4    -2.5    1018      88      98    0.83     560     545    
MON  1A 06-JAN  -3.3     1.3    1011      93      98    0.58     556     548    
MON  7A 06-JAN  -4.6     1.8    1008      92      46    0.49     547     541    
MON  1P 06-JAN  -4.0    -4.2    1007      92      97    0.06     539     534    
MON  7P 06-JAN  -2.2   -10.0    1013      94      85    0.26     537     527    
TUE  1A 07-JAN  -5.6    -9.7    1020      88      38    0.01     541     525   

[airwolf76]

3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.

imagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'

[tron777]

3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.

imagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'

Incredible! I have yet to see a storm over 2 feet and unless I move I probably never will! When you get into the double digits around here, that's about the highest ceiling you'll ever get.

[dce]

12z NBM. National blend of models.

[tron777]

The differences in qpf distribution totals between the foreign and American models for the whole region is astonishing

I'm watching STL too (have relatives there) and we get more QPF then they do on the US models. They should get more then us since our low beings to weaken due to the transfer. So that's probably it. My guess here is that we get a much slower transfer on the US models and a quicker one so less QPF on the Foreign models.

[tpweather]

The 9z run made more sense and getting rid of those really high numbers will no doubt bring down the mean but still over 8 inches.

[airwolf76]

3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.

imagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'

Incredible! I have yet to see a storm over 2 feet and unless I move I probably never will! When you get into the double digits around here, that's about the highest ceiling you'll ever get.

it was incredible Les. and the drifts too . depending on where you were you were gonna be stranded for days. they came through with a v-plow 3 days after the storm to bust the road open that we lived on.

[tpweather]

Back in the day like us old folks talk about was the 76-77 and 77-78 winters. No never any storm that big but several in a row that added up and at one time my guess is over 20 inches on the ground and the drifts were so big you could not open the front door. Btw another system later this week maybe. Those year though were with a weak El Nino and the moisture supply was coming straight from Hawaii in the southwest USA and then across the country.

[tron777]

RGEM and ICON models are running now.

[tron777]

CB's new call:

CBs New Call.jpg

[tron777]

RGEM looking wonderful! All snow for probably 90% of the posters here! This is what I want to see occur! The only downside is a brutal northern cut off. The ICON has snow then a brief sleet / frz drzl mix with the dry slot. Doesn't last long then the backside snow on Monday.

[BookNerdCarp]

CB's new call:


CBs New Call.jpg

As always....I am right on that line between victory and defeat LOL

[mainevilleweather]

It's a little concerning these foreign models are not budging on the southern track.

[winterstormjoe]

Ok, time to work on the snow blower, Christmas lights , get my car all set for winter travel and then I have to prop up my car port roof with some beams to support the weight of the snow/sleet.

[tpweather]

RGEM looking wonderful! All snow for probably 90% of the posters here! This is what I want to see occur! The only downside is a brutal northern cut off. The ICON has snow then a brief sleet / frz drzl mix with the dry slot. Doesn't last long then the backside snow on Monday.

Almost the perfect storm Les on the RGEM

[tron777]

Fox 19's call and Local 12's.

Fox 19.jpg

Local 12.jpg