January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[kywthrluvr]

BAM Wx just did a FB live video that I found to be a good discussion/explanation of the difference in models if anyone is interested.

[tron777]

I didn't like seeing the CMC go south. Has been holding steady until the Euro started south. I'm sure the GFS is wrong, but what do I know?

If you take a model blend, we are still looking pretty good IMO. UKMET is too far south and the GFS is too far north. I think the Canadian models (CMC and RGEM) are in the middle which is good. The area of concern right now for getting the shaft in my mind is our I-70 Crew. This is just my opinion. I could be wrong as well.

Les watching all the modeling but really going with history and gut feeling….im not buying the 70 north shift and getting shafted….i think up here we are going to score big. All area Mets near and around Lima area are calling for 5-8 inches already…..call me naive but my gut tells me otherwise

The SREF and GFS agree. We have about 24 more hours to go IMO before we can get this thing better nailed down.

[tron777]

BAM Wx just did a FB live video that I found to be a good discussion/explanation of the difference in models if anyone is interested.

I cannot post the link right now, but I was watching a little of it on YouTube. If you can, please post the actual youtube video link in here and then folks can watch it right from your forum post.

[tron777]

Is the 15Z SREF out yet? Could someone check the plumes and report in. Thanks!

I was just about to post. Stayed pretty much the same.
IMG_1239.png

Good deal! Thank you!

[CINCINNATI01]

I've noticed these models giving us big amounts of snow at a 10 to 1 ratio is it possible we get better ratios than that

[tron777]

I've noticed these models giving us big amounts of snow at a 10 to 1 ratio is it possible we get better ratios than that

Some of that is sleet contamination so be careful when using those maps. Probably over inflated. But to answer the snow ratio question, yes. 12:1 if not 15:1 at times is possible since we should remain in the 20s at the surface for this event.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is off and running. I will be able to view that with you once I get home. Leaving work in like 7 or 8 mins. I will be checking the text data for some of the other models as well. Keep the discussion going guys!

[tpweather]

My thought process was the first say 2-4 hours we have a 12-1 ratio but then drop to between 8-1 and 10-1 then by time we get to Monday on the back end we may raise up again to 12-1 or so. Like Les mentioned sleet can really mess up totals and that is the part I am not sure on.

[tron777]

I am also curious to see how ILN updates their thinking as well in the next hour or so.

[kywthrluvr]

Here is link to BAM wx live from earlier.

[Phr0z3n]

One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

[mainevilleweather]

I like this stage of the storm because we get more model updates!

[mainevilleweather]

One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

What does this mean exactly?

[Phr0z3n]

One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

What does this mean exactly?

If you have less energy at 500mb the surface low will be weaker. It’s not a lot so I think it’ll wash out.

[mainevilleweather]

One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

What does this mean exactly?

If you have less energy at 500mb the surface low will be weaker.

Is that good or bad for us?

[Phr0z3n]

One noticeable change in 18z nam is the energy at 500mb vorticity is considerably weaker

What does this mean exactly?

If you have less energy at 500mb the surface low will be weaker.

Is that good or bad for us?

Very subtle so probably no different than what 12z nam showed

[Phr0z3n]

Surface low at 42 is a little stronger and precip shield is a little north. The blocking ridge is a little weaker.

[fyrfyter]

The NAM has it snowing by 10:00am Sunday!

[mainevilleweather]

Looks like the snow arrives 6hrs earlier than the 12 z run for most of the metro at this point on the 18z NAM.

[Phr0z3n]

Looks a tad faster

[CINCINNATI01]

How long has this forum been around? I remember being on this when I was a teenager and now I'm 30

[fyrfyter]

Low at 54 hrs looks another 50 miles to the South

[alexdever73]

wow! NAM looks great! for Dayton

[fyrfyter]

Dry slot on the backend eats away at the wraparound snows.

[mainevilleweather]

Please NAM snow God let this pan out!