Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:58 am Bethel AK record low temperature of -27F (-32.8C) for Nov 28th was tied Sunday morning. The lowest November temp on record is -31F (-35.0C) on Nov 30, 1939. That could be tied or broken Monday morning.
King SALMON AK tied the record November all time low of -28. (1917, 1988)

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:46 am Good Morning and looks like a nice stretch of weather this week and how warm do we get. Low 60's for Thursday and Friday look great to get that last minute outdoor chores done. Late last week the models for the most part went more towards a longer term mild period. We know the Euro flipped 180 degrees with one run. I hear weather folks blame the change of seasons but guess what that should be in the equation of these models because the change of seasons happens all the time. Plenty of signs in the pattern showing a return to cold weather and cold weather that will last imo. That starts this weekend and storminess will help usher in much colder air. You can already tell the jet has strengthen and with the recent couple of fronts winds have been picking up in each case and this shows the jet getting stronger. Will the cold blast come all at one time or just a progression of cold fronts and does look like several fronts starting this weekend will usher in the cold. Over the past two weeks their has been some Canadian air work its way south but no doubt has directed further east and yes we even had a 19 degree low with barely getting in on some true cold air. That air has gotten colder over the past 10 days so getting a storm system to tap that cold is what we need to see some of that drain further south and west. Will we get the true polar air over Alaska and even parts of Europe as we speak and that part may take a little longer to get here but no doubt I see seasonally cold air in here starting next week which gives us one of those weeks where we can get either rain or snow. After that lets she what mother nature has in store but I believe before Christmas we will have had a couple of systems producing snow for our local area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:39 am The deal with the MJO at this time... it looks to go into 6, then tries to get into 7, but loops back into 6 again, before finally getting into 7 again as we approach mid month. That re-looping back into 6 if correct, delays any sort of pattern change until after mid month. Not saying we won't see some snow in the first half of Dec, but the chances are looking low at this point in time. Hopefully the second half has a better outcome in time for Christmas.