Absolute Vorticity

On the cool side here , only 67

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Dec 25, 2021 2:12 pm Give it up to the EU , it nailed the warmth of today about 10 days ago

Hopefully it nails the cold it's predicting 10 days from now.

68 CVG... 69 for my high thus far. Got the smoker all cleaned up and ready to go for the next cook.

Thinking we have a chance around the 2-3rd time frame with a front bringing in the cold then a follow up wave as the western trough relaxes just a bit. Then I think we warm up again before another push of cold late in week 1. 12Z EPS showing this scenario which makes sense for Phase 7. Slight improvement with higher heights in the west.

The entire run showing both cold shots (troughs). Chances for snow TBD...

69 maybe even 70 at CVG possible... we'll have to wait and see but we are smashing the old record of 66 that is for sure History being made today folks.

Just had a t-storm on Christmas... my Gosh... I give Trev, I give! Uncle! Uncle!!!

Who needs to go to Florida for holiday warmth and the hassle of travel when you have it in your own backyard

The grandson got his first t-ball set today. I worked up a sweat playing with him!

Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

Still hanging in at #2 and putting pressure on the #1 spot all this week

No changes for the week , with rain chances nearly every day, most areas should get a good soaking by weeks end . Not expecting hydro issues as it has been rather dry for most of the area prior

Fairly neutral 850 winds for the upcoming week , so not expecting any big strengthening of MJO for the same period .

We'll come close on Monday but ultimately fall short. 70 from 2008 is the record high at CVG. We will likely top out in the U60s again.

Merry Christmas all. Spent yesterday in Cincinnati. I was sweating it out in the kitchen with my sister. We had to open three windows to cool us down. Yes it was a little rainy, but the cool air from the rain sure did feel nice. Now that the big day is gone, let's get that snow machine cranked up which the gfs possibly shows happening.

We talked about the SOI drop a few days ago and how if it continued for an extended time might be a good sign down the road, well it only lasted a few days and has now skyrocketed into the positive side. I've never seen a +80 point change In a few days time. What does it mean? IMO it means LaNina is still well in control and coupled Atmosphericly.

Watching the Seattle snow game.... very festive.

Sure has been a different kind of Christmas weekend for my folks and I. Dad's 7-day quarantine will be over Mon night or Tues.

Thankfully mom hasn't gotten sick.

I have a deep wracking cough, but thankfully, not in my lungs and some postnasal congestion. Also have had a high temp at times as high as 100.3. I take some Excedrin for daytime use to keep the fever under control and at night Ibuprofen. Going to call my primary healthcare physician bldg in the morning to set myself up a test time.

My gauge picked up .70" for Christmas weekend.

Currently 37 here in G'ville and progged for around 38 Mon morning.

57 already sheesh... I think CVG's record is safe today.

A few showers today but the heaviest action comes Tues. Wed then again Fri night and Sat. Ending maybe as some flakes on Sunday?

Good Morning a record 76 here in Greenville yesterday, record high at home on Christmas and Fairbanks one degree from a record high yesterday. The mjo and Joe B and Larry C both respected met's are in opposite terms in terms of the phase with Joe going with phase 7 heading to 8 while Larry believes phase between 2 and 5. Bgoney has been correct how the atmosphere is telling these man man models that I am in control. I believe phase 7 is correct and phase 7 in later December is a warm phase and not the cold phase folks believe. Earlier in the month a deep phase 7 is cold but we were on the border of phase 6 and 7 and that is warm in early December. So I believe Joe B and his thought process of the mjo. The southeast ridge got so strong in December after being nowhere in November and imo that was because of the tropical area just off the coast of Northeast South America which formed a high pressure to the north and this just strengthen over time and was able to meet up with the southwest ridge that got pushed to the east after troughs were able to move further south in the western USA. So this formed a block in the south central and southeast USA and this helped produce very warm air plus help send severe weather much further north than normal.


Snow on the 2nd and 3rd and at this point 60-40 chances of getting accumulation at this time but I believe those chances will improve as the pattern imo has changed and grabbing some of the cold north and west will tend to have models getting colder as we get to next weekend and with the northern plains getting heavy snow and temps later this week in the -20 - -40 range the cold should end up winning out.

BTW worried a little about some areas that could get some heavy rains this week and would not be surprised to see and area getting 2-3 inches and some localized flooding. Grounds are in good shape for this time of year but if you get some training in certain areas some flooding could happen.'

So my December was a big bust but I was at least able to look back and figured out what caused the bust and sometimes that is not that easy.

If the pna just gets to near neutral in January then we will get cold and the storminess will continue.

Great day to take Christmas decorations down. I think its close to 40 degrees warmer than when I put them up, lol

Tim , great post. MJO still taking its sweet time in 7 and I continue to believe the position on the so called "wheel" is being generous with its closeness to 8. Satellite in that region just doesn't match up pertaining to clouds and precip. So remaining cautiously optimistic. I'm sticking with first 7 days of Jan. to average near normal with a few days below and few days above to get that average, being on the edge of influence from both the western trough and SERidge. This doesn't mean we can't get snow , there is a chance bit far to early to know an outcome. Like we said last week,, just getting to normal after this December is a huge victory.
After the first week , a ton of questions with the progression of the pattern. Does the stubborn NP ridge continue its grip to how far the Arctic air seeps south . ? PNA relaxing ? Mixed signs on both.

Hey Bgoney, you have been dead on with how the atmosphere has been acting and that has served you well in your forecasts. If we did not have the cold in western and central Canada like we do I would have a harder time in seeing us get some decent winter weather. The Pna may become neutral at times and with that kind of cold we can grasp enough of the cold to give us some winter weather. Pattern changes and if this is true models will tend to throw out some wild events. I still believe a decent storm later this week should help in getting some of the cold further south and east. Will this be a temporary cold shot and maybe but I believe the warm up afterwards would be not as mild and shorter duration and part of that will be how much snow falls over the central plains to the mid-atlantic coast.

Lots of motorcycles on the road. 68 humid degrees here