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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:24 pm
by Phr0z3n
Actually stronger at 27, not by much though
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:26 pm
by tron777
Spacejunk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:46 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:58 pm
House of Cards wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:50 pm
I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!
We have been trying to sell the plow and side by side my Dad had but no hits on it so far. Anyway, I got the plow hooked up to it and I'm ready to go! The plow has never been used LOL
It’s about time you get to use the plow, should make you very happy!
I am freaking thrilled! Just wish my Dad was still here to do the plowing instead of me. He loved big snow storms! His back was like as human barometer. If he woke up in the morning with a massive back ache, it's time to strap those plows on!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:28 pm
by tron777
CVG on north all snow thru Hour 30. Getting hammered too! Sleet is getting close to the Metro. A lot of models are saying that so anytime after 7pm Sunday, CVG Land is fair game to start sleeting, but not before a nice dumping of snow!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:30 pm
by tron777
Oh wow! I love what it's doing. Don't know if it's right but the precip rate increases and it's actually still snowing for CVG as the evening wears on thanks to dynamic cooling! NICE!! Huge run for the Tri-state folks!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:33 pm
by tron777
As soon as the dry slot comes, we'll get light sleet / frz drizzle, or maybe not too much at all as the dry slot works into some areas (like Cincy) But after it passes, we'll get the additional snow on Monday on the back side.
It has 24" over Southern Indiana looking at the Kuchera!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:33 pm
by Phr0z3n
Same at hour 34 compared to 12z and a little stronger, precip shield should edge north a little bit
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:37 pm
by Phr0z3n
Pretty much the same as 12z Hrrr
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
by tron777
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:40 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
That dry slot sucks
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:42 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
That dry slot sucks
Yeah. If I'm right it'll stay south but if I'm wrong, we'll be impacted by it some how unfortunately. Just another unknown that we won't know until it happens.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:44 pm
by tron777
HRRR will still have the wrap around snows on Monday, as the low holds on long enough into WV before transferring. All models to varying degrees have this idea so I'm feeling pretty good about that. The unknowns are going to be the track and strength of the WAA. QPF won't be a problem for most folks nor will surface temps.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:44 pm
by mikeyp
The HRRR is amazing! WOW!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:45 pm
by Phr0z3n
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:42 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
That dry slot sucks
Yeah. If I'm right it'll stay south but if I'm wrong, we'll be impacted by it some how unfortunately. Just another unknown that we won't know until it happens.
No other Model is showing that. I wouldn’t put any merit into unless the nam follows
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:48 pm
by Phr0z3n
18z nam up
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:48 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:45 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:42 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
That dry slot sucks
Yeah. If I'm right it'll stay south but if I'm wrong, we'll be impacted by it some how unfortunately. Just another unknown that we won't know until it happens.
No other Model is showing that. I wouldn’t put any merit into unless the nam follows
I agree... just looking at all of the different possibilities that this system will have to offer. Both the good and the bad lol The 700 MB frontogenic forcing is going to be amazing with this thing Sun afternoon and evening.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:50 pm
by MVWxObserver
ILN has the snow starting here in Darke Co. e.g. at around 5 PM or sometime soon after that.
Where my folks and I reside now its nice not having to shovel, blow, or put down melt anymore.
Very blessed to have a wonderful maintenance crew here in our community 'hood.
Currently 19 here in G'ville and progged to top out around 23.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:52 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:39 pm
I still don't buy the low getting up into Central KY. I could be wrong certainly. But so could the model. We just don't yet know. Once we see the surface low form this evening in the TX / OK panhandles, the radar will be lighting up too and that'll help us match up some real time data with the models to see if we find any BS model runs.
Not buying the low getting up to central Kentucky. I have it over southern Kentucky and gets maybe to Bowling Green but should turn east. If this does get further north towards the I-64 area then yes more mixing and a dry slot. Not buying it and will see if other models are showing this
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:53 pm
by tron777
15Z SREF snow mean came in at 8 almost 9" at CVG. 1.82" mean QPF so it's very juicy like the HRRR. For precip type, snow to a brief period of sleet and frz rain back to snow. I'm not buying the frz rain part unless we get dry slotted and it'll be like a mist. Freezing drizzle, now that I could see happening if the northern solution is correct. Still a huge storm anyway you slice it.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:55 pm
by tron777
Everyone of us is locked in for a big and impactful winter storm! How bad will it be in your particular location will depend on those finer details we keep discussing. All of it is nowcasting. From this distance, we can only give our best guesses.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:56 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:53 pm
15Z SREF snow mean came in at 8 almost 9" at CVG. 1.82" mean QPF so it's very juicy like the HRRR. For precip type, snow to a brief period of sleet and frz rain back to snow. I'm not buying the frz rain part unless we get dry slotted and it'll be like a mist. Freezing drizzle, now that I could see happening if the northern solution is correct. Still a huge storm anyway you slice it.
Les I show the mean at 9.52 for CVG and that is a nice uptick and Indy has went down a tad
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:58 pm
by tron777
18Z NAM has now moving into our SW counties by late morning. Model spread is probably like 10am until 1pm. So by that time, you'll want to be hunkered down! You'll have a little more time the further north and east you are of course.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:59 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:56 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:53 pm
15Z SREF snow mean came in at 8 almost 9" at CVG. 1.82" mean QPF so it's very juicy like the HRRR. For precip type, snow to a brief period of sleet and frz rain back to snow. I'm not buying the frz rain part unless we get dry slotted and it'll be like a mist. Freezing drizzle, now that I could see happening if the northern solution is correct. Still a huge storm anyway you slice it.
Les I show the mean at 9.52 for CVG and that is a nice uptick and Indy has went down a tad
HAO ILN around 10" with MGY closing in on 11" lol That continues to look like our jackpot zone.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 3:05 pm
by tron777
18Z NAM stronger, more north so Cincy starts sleeting around 7pm Sunday. N of Cincy, you're gonna get smoked!!!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 3:06 pm
by tron777
CVG / Cincy is still in my 6-8" camp prior to changing over even on this NAM run so I'm good with it. Fitting with my forecast.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 3:13 pm
by alexdever73
ugg dry slotted? backend doesnt look as good as this morning but it is the 18z