January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[wrmwxfreak]

My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!

Per the GFS, he should be fine. Heavier precip misses them to the south.

For Omaha:

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 05-JAN  -7.9    -7.7    1027      73      98    0.01     557     536    
SUN 06Z 05-JAN  -8.9    -8.3    1027      79      98    0.07     555     534    
SUN 12Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -11.4    1026      64      96    0.05     551     531    
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -12.0    1026      59      95    0.08     548     528    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -9.1   -11.7    1027      56      44    0.13     545     525    
MON 06Z 06-JAN -11.9   -10.7    1029      64      34    0.02     548     525    

He has to drive there from Lincoln, and Lincoln’s under a Winter Storm Warning starting at noon today. Will he be okay if he leaves around 2-3, or will he have problems leaving Lincoln? Thanks, Les.!

[BookNerdCarp]

For CVG / Cincy, I am digging the idea of 6-8" of snow, then a period of sleet with up to 4" additional snow on Monday on the backside. I don't think this call is out of line. Then for you guys in the sweet spot that remain all snow, 8-12" plus I think is a good call for the N Cincy burbs and S Dayton burbs locals. SE Crew... 2-4" of snow, then sleet with significant frz rain. Accum of 0.25" possible or more of ice. Then up to 4" on the backside for snow on Monday. I-70 Crew... Jackpot is S of the interstate. Amounts start to drop off north of course. Anywhere between 3-6"+ is possible from N to S across this zone. My lowest confidence continues to be the I-70 Crew zones.

Start time for CVG / Cincy should be anytime after 10am Sunday. I've upped the start time by a couple of hours.

So if I’m reading what you posted here correctly, you’re thinking maybe 4 to 8 inches of snow in my area plus some really bad ice

[young pup]

Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.

Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.

Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.

No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.

I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.

I am beginning to get concerned if we even have a salt run up here. lol

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.

Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.

No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.

I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.

I am beginning to get concerned if we even have a salt run up here. lol

Hi JP, we're both in line for 3-6" so that's better than nothing, bro.

[airwolf76]

Back in the day like us old folks talk about was the 76-77 and 77-78 winters. No never any storm that big but several in a row that added up and at one time my guess is over 20 inches on the ground and the drifts were so big you could not open the front door. Btw another system later this week maybe. Those year though were with a weak El Nino and the moisture supply was coming straight from Hawaii in the southwest USA and then across the country.

Thats incredible . i was just being born then but have heard people talking about those years ever since. a pineapple express coming right into arctic air.

[tpweather]

The lovely CMC and it sometimes is a forerunner of a storm and seems to lose it almost every time in that 48 hour window. Still a good hit but less snow and ice is not a concern

[airwolf76]

pretty good storm signal on the long range models for next weekend

[fyrfyter]

12z Euro tries to keep it all snow, North of the river. Really nice run!

IMG_0927.jpeg

IMG_0926.jpeg

[alexdever73]

Euro still south as well. I think it will catch up on 00z. Heavy snows from Butler to Montgomery counties

[tron777]

Euro is a little thin on the northern QPF field though but otherwise for CVG / Cincy areas, take it and run!

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.0    -4.9    1025      49     100    0.03     557     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -3.1    1019      89     100    0.32     556     542    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.1    -2.6    1013      93      88    0.39     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.0    -4.7    1009      86      88    0.16     543     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -9.3    1013      88      98    0.13     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.9   -14.0    1020      82      35    0.03     540     524    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.9    -6.1    1025      37      98    0.01     557     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -4.0    1019      85      99    0.19     556     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -4.1    1014      89      95    0.27     550     539    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.2    -5.3    1010      81      92    0.20     542     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6    -9.9    1013      88      92    0.13     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.9   -14.1    1020      82      36    0.01     540     524   

MGY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -4.6    1020      72      98    0.06     555     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.9    -4.6    1015      89     100    0.16     550     538    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.5    -5.7    1011      81      95    0.10     542     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.6   -10.4    1012      89      88    0.07     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.2   -13.9    1019      82      33    0.01     539     524    

DAY

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -5.3    1020      65      98    0.02     554     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -6.2    -5.6    1016      86      99    0.17     549     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.4    -6.3    1012      83      98    0.08     542     533    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.3   -11.4    1013      88      78    0.05     538     528    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.5   -14.0    1019      82      29    0.01     539     523   

CMH

MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.9    -6.0    1016      84      99    0.09     550     537    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.7    -6.4    1012      85      99    0.08     543     534    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.9   -10.2    1010      81      90    0.02     538     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.1   -13.7    1017      78      16    0.01     537     523    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  -6.3   -11.6    1022      83      17    0.01     539     522    

FGX - Much better!  More sleet, less ice.

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.3    -4.4    1025      52     100    0.04     559     539    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.3    -1.7    1018      90     100    0.26     558     544    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.9    -0.2    1011      91      87    0.51     553     545    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.3    -0.6    1007      90      68    0.15     545     539    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -6.5    1009      87      94    0.04     538     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.9   -13.1    1018      79      49    0.08     539     525    

[tron777]

My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!

Per the GFS, he should be fine. Heavier precip misses them to the south.

For Omaha:

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 05-JAN  -7.9    -7.7    1027      73      98    0.01     557     536    
SUN 06Z 05-JAN  -8.9    -8.3    1027      79      98    0.07     555     534    
SUN 12Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -11.4    1026      64      96    0.05     551     531    
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -12.0    1026      59      95    0.08     548     528    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -9.1   -11.7    1027      56      44    0.13     545     525    
MON 06Z 06-JAN -11.9   -10.7    1029      64      34    0.02     548     525    

He has to drive there from Lincoln, and Lincoln’s under a Winter Storm Warning starting at noon today. Will he be okay if he leaves around 2-3, or will he have problems leaving Lincoln? Thanks, Les.!

I'd get out as soon as possible just to play it safe. Def worse the further south you are out in Neb. Not too bad further north in Omaha.

[tron777]

For CVG / Cincy, I am digging the idea of 6-8" of snow, then a period of sleet with up to 4" additional snow on Monday on the backside. I don't think this call is out of line. Then for you guys in the sweet spot that remain all snow, 8-12" plus I think is a good call for the N Cincy burbs and S Dayton burbs locals. SE Crew... 2-4" of snow, then sleet with significant frz rain. Accum of 0.25" possible or more of ice. Then up to 4" on the backside for snow on Monday. I-70 Crew... Jackpot is S of the interstate. Amounts start to drop off north of course. Anywhere between 3-6"+ is possible from N to S across this zone. My lowest confidence continues to be the I-70 Crew zones.

Start time for CVG / Cincy should be anytime after 10am Sunday. I've upped the start time by a couple of hours.

So if I’m reading what you posted here correctly, you’re thinking maybe 4 to 8 inches of snow in my area plus some really bad ice

Yes... and I left a range there because of mixing. How much sleet and frz rain will cut into those totals? Could be closer to 4" if you get a lot of mixing. Could be in that 6-8" range if the 12Z Euro were to pan out. More sleet, less ice.

Folks need to remember, and you know this Matt of course, but a lot of these totals from Cincy on south will be sleet and snow combinations and frz rain thrown in also for our Southern and SE counties. Much more difficult to measure snow with the kitchen sink for precip types too! Going to be a mess everywhere 100%.

[House of Cards]

I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!

[House of Cards]

I sent out a notice to my HOA members too, if at all possible wherever you live, try to get as many cars off the road and into driveways as possible so the salt truck/plow guys have an easier time doing their thing. They certainly appreciate it, and maybe it saves your car from getting a nasty scrape or dent too.

[Phr0z3n]

I sent out a notice to my HOA members too, if at all possible wherever you live, try to get as many cars off the road and into driveways as possible so the salt truck/plow guys have an easier time doing their thing. They certainly appreciate it, and maybe it saves your car from getting a nasty scrape or dent too.

absolutely. I use to hate plowing in a dump truck with an 11 foot plow, and there are cars everywhere.

[tron777]

I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!

We have been trying to sell the plow and side by side my Dad had but no hits on it so far. Anyway, I got the plow hooked up to it and I'm ready to go! The plow has never been used LOL

[House of Cards]

Never say never, Les!

[Pete1]

Les, what’s your best guess on a start time tomorrow for the white gold?

[Spacejunk]

I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!

We have been trying to sell the plow and side by side my Dad had but no hits on it so far. Anyway, I got the plow hooked up to it and I'm ready to go! The plow has never been used LOL

It’s about time you get to use the plow, should make you very happy!

[Phr0z3n]

18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.

[BookNerdCarp]

I'm really pulling for that latest EURO run myself.

[cincy02]

18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.

Looks pretty close to 12z through 23.

[Phr0z3n]

18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.

Looks pretty close to 12z through 23.

Yep maybe a little weaker

[Bgoney]

So far not as juicy early on

[tron777]

Les, what’s your best guess on a start time tomorrow for the white gold?

I was going with noon for our hoods, thinking a bit earlier now, like around 10am?