Absolute Vorticity

snowbo wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:39 pm Keep the faith Eric...prayers to you guys!

Thank you, Bo, and will do, Bro!

All that we've had today with our local Wayne Health Care hospital has been a run-around!!

Dad's been sick since about Sun or Mon.

Currently 28 here in G'ville and progged for around 20 Thurs morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:37 pm Decemba To Rememba


Torch.png

Another one to add to the pile of warm Decembers in the last decade.

This will be 8 out of the last 10 that were above normal. I believe '16 and 17' were the only exceptions.

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:37 pm Decemba To Rememba


Torch.png

Another one to add to the pile of warm Decembers in the last decade.

This will be 8 out of the last 10 that were above normal. I believe '16 and 17' were the only exceptions.

We've been on an awful run for big dogs. March of 2008 last double digit at CVG. Although I do count Feb of last year. 9 inches and something at CVG one night and I had 10" here so I consider it a drought breaker for my hood but not a region wide event. It was very localized. It's been that long for most. 3/7-8/2008 Wow... how sad.

I mean it's bad when you cannot even entertain the idea of a fantasy snow storm on the GFS. We aren't even seeing that.

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:37 pm Decemba To Rememba


Torch.png

Another one to add to the pile of warm Decembers in the last decade.

This will be 8 out of the last 10 that were above normal. I believe '16 and 17' were the only exceptions.

What is sad and my guess 8 out of the last 10 May's have been below normal. That is when I am ready for some decent warm weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:37 pm

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 4:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 3:37 pm Decemba To Rememba


Torch.png

Another one to add to the pile of warm Decembers in the last decade.

This will be 8 out of the last 10 that were above normal. I believe '16 and 17' were the only exceptions.

What is sad and my guess 8 out of the last 10 May's have been below normal. That is when I am ready for some decent warm weather.

Definitely a trend of later start to winters and later start to spring and / or summers. But the summers last longer and the cycle repeats all over again. That's been the trend since 2010 IMO outside of a few outlier years.

Good morning all! Another nice day around 50 (most will stay in the U40s). U50s for Christmas Eve with a slim chance for rain. A little better chance for rain on Christmas Day with the 60s. Can we make a run at the record? Will be close. Rain is likely for a good chunk of next week., Won't rain everyday but the chances will be there. Mild in the 50s. Good riddance to December weather wise.

Quick, someone throw a life jacket( not the cheap ones) to the MJO, it's drowning in phase 7

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:33 am Quick, someone throw a life jacket( not the cheap ones) to the MJO, it's drowning in phase 7

I think it's going to stall there for the first part of January. I don't seeing it going into Phase 8 until mid Jan and that's even if it doesn't completely die in 7. SE ridge will continue to be a player as well as the -PNA if it stays in 7. Not the greatest of news.

22 here this morning... CVG 23 earlier about 2am.

I agree with many here, December has been really crappy for snow lovers. Up here in Chardon, less than an inch all month. Average up here for month is 26.5 inches. Good shot at worst snowfall for month since modern records back to 1953. Glad November was ok with 15 inches.

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:04 am I agree with many here, December has been really crappy for snow lovers. Up here in Chardon, less than an inch all month. Average up here for month is 26.5 inches. Good shot at worst snowfall for month since modern records back to 1953. Glad November was ok with 15 inches.

We will end December about 4" or so down for snowfall on the season at CVG. Still sitting at 0.6"

850 anomalies more or less weak coming up for next 7 days or so,, which means easterlies still winning at the dateline and one reason why MJO is floundering in 7

GEFS, Canadian, and Euro models all keep the MJO in Phase 7 for the foreseeable future.

Good Morning and a nice cold frosty morning. A few days below normal to be replaced by a couple of days way above normal starting on Friday. I don't believe we set a record on Saturday but we may hit 61 or 62. Next week looks busy and trying to figure out each piece of energy is tough and it will go back and forth the next few days. Starting the new year and everything looks great. Getting these systems next week to lay down some snow in the northern and central plains will help deliver the cold for us by the New Year Weekend. The GOM will get some action next week but the waters are so warm that their will be plenty of moisture available even after we get the cold air in here. So at this point trying to pinpoint exact timing of snow is never easy but looking at late the 2nd or on the 3rd. I have no ideal if models are showing anything at all and no reason to watch them this early but with the tropical regions settling down the cold will work its way southward. So if we get the ao and nao neutral that is fine and don't need a big negative to get snow. Of course I would love to see those go negative which could give us a longer period of cold and possible snow but give it time as Mother Nature will balance things out over time.

Happy New Year's Day!!!

Love, 06z GFS

DT's This Week in Weather:

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:09 am Happy New Year's Day!!!

Love, 06z GFS


gfs-deterministic-cincinnati-t2m_f_max6-1081600.png

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:09 am Happy New Year's Day!!!

Love, 06z GFS


gfs-deterministic-cincinnati-t2m_f_max6-1081600.png

Well some model or someone will have egg on their face lol

12Z OP GFS brings the cold in by 1/3 behind a cutter low. We'll have to wait and see if we can do anything with it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:46 am 12Z OP GFS brings the cold in by 1/3 behind a cutter low. We'll have to wait and see if we can do anything with it.

I think the first full week of Jan. Will average close to normal, which would be a win in my book

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Sorry to hear this Eric. Prayers and good thoughts coming your way.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:46 am 12Z OP GFS brings the cold in by 1/3 behind a cutter low. We'll have to wait and see if we can do anything with it.

I think the first full week of Jan. Will average close to normal, which would be a win in my book

I agree and normal means snow chances in January for sure. Nice signal for overrunning too and ice unless we get a cutter of course. The signal is there for a nice baroclinic boundary to develop, I'm just afraid it'll be to our north and west.