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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:31 am
by wrmwxfreak
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:01 am
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:55 am
My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!
Per the GFS, he should be fine. Heavier precip misses them to the south.
For Omaha:
Code: Select all
SUN 00Z 05-JAN -7.9 -7.7 1027 73 98 0.01 557 536
SUN 06Z 05-JAN -8.9 -8.3 1027 79 98 0.07 555 534
SUN 12Z 05-JAN -9.3 -11.4 1026 64 96 0.05 551 531
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -9.3 -12.0 1026 59 95 0.08 548 528
MON 00Z 06-JAN -9.1 -11.7 1027 56 44 0.13 545 525
MON 06Z 06-JAN -11.9 -10.7 1029 64 34 0.02 548 525
He has to drive there from Lincoln, and Lincoln’s under a Winter Storm Warning starting at noon today. Will he be okay if he leaves around 2-3, or will he have problems leaving Lincoln? Thanks, Les.!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:36 am
by BookNerdCarp
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:53 am
For CVG / Cincy, I am digging the idea of 6-8" of snow, then a period of sleet with up to 4" additional snow on Monday on the backside. I don't think this call is out of line. Then for you guys in the sweet spot that remain all snow, 8-12" plus I think is a good call for the N Cincy burbs and S Dayton burbs locals. SE Crew... 2-4" of snow, then sleet with significant frz rain. Accum of 0.25" possible or more of ice. Then up to 4" on the backside for snow on Monday. I-70 Crew... Jackpot is S of the interstate. Amounts start to drop off north of course. Anywhere between 3-6"+ is possible from N to S across this zone. My lowest confidence continues to be the I-70 Crew zones.
Start time for CVG / Cincy should be anytime after 10am Sunday. I've upped the start time by a couple of hours.
So if I’m reading what you posted here correctly, you’re thinking maybe 4 to 8 inches of snow in my area plus some really bad ice
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:39 am
by young pup
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:17 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:15 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:39 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am
Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.
Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.
Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.
No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.
I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.
I am beginning to get concerned if we even have a salt run up here. lol
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:03 pm
by MVWxObserver
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:39 am
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:17 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:15 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:39 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am
Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.
Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.
No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.
I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.
I am beginning to get concerned if we even have a salt run up here. lol
Hi JP, we're both in line for 3-6" so that's better than nothing, bro.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:08 pm
by airwolf76
tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:51 am
Back in the day like us old folks talk about was the 76-77 and 77-78 winters. No never any storm that big but several in a row that added up and at one time my guess is over 20 inches on the ground and the drifts were so big you could not open the front door. Btw another system later this week maybe. Those year though were with a weak El Nino and the moisture supply was coming straight from Hawaii in the southwest USA and then across the country.
Thats incredible . i was just being born then but have heard people talking about those years ever since. a pineapple express coming right into arctic air.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:26 pm
by tpweather
The lovely CMC and it sometimes is a forerunner of a storm and seems to lose it almost every time in that 48 hour window. Still a good hit but less snow and ice is not a concern
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:30 pm
by airwolf76
pretty good storm signal on the long range models for next weekend
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:33 pm
by fyrfyter
12z Euro tries to keep it all snow, North of the river. Really nice run!
IMG_0927.jpeg
IMG_0926.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:40 pm
by alexdever73
Euro still south as well. I think it will catch up on 00z. Heavy snows from Butler to Montgomery counties
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:44 pm
by tron777
Euro is a little thin on the northern QPF field though but otherwise for CVG / Cincy areas, take it and run!
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -4.0 -4.9 1025 49 100 0.03 557 538
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.2 -3.1 1019 89 100 0.32 556 542
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.1 -2.6 1013 93 88 0.39 550 541
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.0 -4.7 1009 86 88 0.16 543 536
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.8 -9.3 1013 88 98 0.13 538 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.9 -14.0 1020 82 35 0.03 540 524
HAO
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -3.9 -6.1 1025 37 98 0.01 557 537
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.2 -4.0 1019 85 99 0.19 556 541
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.4 -4.1 1014 89 95 0.27 550 539
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.2 -5.3 1010 81 92 0.20 542 535
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.6 -9.9 1013 88 92 0.13 538 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.9 -14.1 1020 82 36 0.01 540 524
MGY
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.0 -4.6 1020 72 98 0.06 555 540
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.9 -4.6 1015 89 100 0.16 550 538
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.5 -5.7 1011 81 95 0.10 542 534
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.6 -10.4 1012 89 88 0.07 538 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -4.2 -13.9 1019 82 33 0.01 539 524
DAY
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.9 -5.3 1020 65 98 0.02 554 539
MON 06Z 06-JAN -6.2 -5.6 1016 86 99 0.17 549 537
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.4 -6.3 1012 83 98 0.08 542 533
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.3 -11.4 1013 88 78 0.05 538 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -4.5 -14.0 1019 82 29 0.01 539 523
CMH
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.9 -6.0 1016 84 99 0.09 550 537
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.7 -6.4 1012 85 99 0.08 543 534
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.9 -10.2 1010 81 90 0.02 538 529
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.1 -13.7 1017 78 16 0.01 537 523
TUE 06Z 07-JAN -6.3 -11.6 1022 83 17 0.01 539 522
FGX - Much better! More sleet, less ice.
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -3.3 -4.4 1025 52 100 0.04 559 539
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.3 -1.7 1018 90 100 0.26 558 544
MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.9 -0.2 1011 91 87 0.51 553 545
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.3 -0.6 1007 90 68 0.15 545 539
MON 18Z 06-JAN -4.8 -6.5 1009 87 94 0.04 538 531
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.9 -13.1 1018 79 49 0.08 539 525
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:46 pm
by tron777
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:31 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:01 am
wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:55 am
My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!
Per the GFS, he should be fine. Heavier precip misses them to the south.
For Omaha:
Code: Select all
SUN 00Z 05-JAN -7.9 -7.7 1027 73 98 0.01 557 536
SUN 06Z 05-JAN -8.9 -8.3 1027 79 98 0.07 555 534
SUN 12Z 05-JAN -9.3 -11.4 1026 64 96 0.05 551 531
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -9.3 -12.0 1026 59 95 0.08 548 528
MON 00Z 06-JAN -9.1 -11.7 1027 56 44 0.13 545 525
MON 06Z 06-JAN -11.9 -10.7 1029 64 34 0.02 548 525
He has to drive there from Lincoln, and Lincoln’s under a Winter Storm Warning starting at noon today. Will he be okay if he leaves around 2-3, or will he have problems leaving Lincoln? Thanks, Les.!
I'd get out as soon as possible just to play it safe. Def worse the further south you are out in Neb. Not too bad further north in Omaha.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:48 pm
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:36 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:53 am
For CVG / Cincy, I am digging the idea of 6-8" of snow, then a period of sleet with up to 4" additional snow on Monday on the backside. I don't think this call is out of line. Then for you guys in the sweet spot that remain all snow, 8-12" plus I think is a good call for the N Cincy burbs and S Dayton burbs locals. SE Crew... 2-4" of snow, then sleet with significant frz rain. Accum of 0.25" possible or more of ice. Then up to 4" on the backside for snow on Monday. I-70 Crew... Jackpot is S of the interstate. Amounts start to drop off north of course. Anywhere between 3-6"+ is possible from N to S across this zone. My lowest confidence continues to be the I-70 Crew zones.
Start time for CVG / Cincy should be anytime after 10am Sunday. I've upped the start time by a couple of hours.
So if I’m reading what you posted here correctly, you’re thinking maybe 4 to 8 inches of snow in my area plus some really bad ice
Yes... and I left a range there because of mixing. How much sleet and frz rain will cut into those totals? Could be closer to 4" if you get a lot of mixing. Could be in that 6-8" range if the 12Z Euro were to pan out. More sleet, less ice.
Folks need to remember, and you know this Matt of course, but a lot of these totals from Cincy on south will be sleet and snow combinations and frz rain thrown in also for our Southern and SE counties. Much more difficult to measure snow with the kitchen sink for precip types too! Going to be a mess everywhere 100%.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:50 pm
by House of Cards
I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:53 pm
by House of Cards
I sent out a notice to my HOA members too, if at all possible wherever you live, try to get as many cars off the road and into driveways as possible so the salt truck/plow guys have an easier time doing their thing. They certainly appreciate it, and maybe it saves your car from getting a nasty scrape or dent too.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:56 pm
by Phr0z3n
House of Cards wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:53 pm
I sent out a notice to my HOA members too, if at all possible wherever you live, try to get as many cars off the road and into driveways as possible so the salt truck/plow guys have an easier time doing their thing. They certainly appreciate it, and maybe it saves your car from getting a nasty scrape or dent too.
absolutely. I use to hate plowing in a dump truck with an 11 foot plow, and there are cars everywhere.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:58 pm
by tron777
House of Cards wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:50 pm
I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!
We have been trying to sell the plow and side by side my Dad had but no hits on it so far. Anyway, I got the plow hooked up to it and I'm ready to go! The plow has never been used LOL
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:31 pm
by House of Cards
Never say never, Les!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:37 pm
by Pete1
Les, what’s your best guess on a start time tomorrow for the white gold?
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:46 pm
by Spacejunk
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:58 pm
House of Cards wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 12:50 pm
I like it! Got my snow blower up and running and moved to the entrance to the garage, I almost always forget and leave it stuck behind the cars, LOL. Got out a big tarp to lay down in the grass to make a clear area for my two pups to get out and conduct their bidness. Driveway calcium chloride is all ready to be spread. Dinner and Bengals tonight, then time to watch Where Eagles Dare tomorrow!
We have been trying to sell the plow and side by side my Dad had but no hits on it so far. Anyway, I got the plow hooked up to it and I'm ready to go! The plow has never been used LOL
It’s about time you get to use the plow, should make you very happy!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:10 pm
by Phr0z3n
18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:12 pm
by BookNerdCarp
I'm really pulling for that latest EURO run myself.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:21 pm
by cincy02
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:10 pm
18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.
Looks pretty close to 12z through 23.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:22 pm
by Phr0z3n
cincy02 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:21 pm
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:10 pm
18z Hrrr rolling in lets see if it conforms.
Looks pretty close to 12z through 23.
Yep maybe a little weaker
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:24 pm
by Bgoney
So far not as juicy early on
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 2:24 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 1:37 pm
Les, what’s your best guess on a start time tomorrow for the white gold?
I was going with noon for our hoods, thinking a bit earlier now, like around 10am?