Absolute Vorticity

Don't want to see this....especially on Christmas Day. Many of these areas are recovering from the Dec 10-11 outbreak.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:18 am Don't want to see this....especially on Christmas Day. Many of these areas are recovering from the Dec 10-11 outbreak.


SVR.png

Flooding may also be an issue for parts of the OV even if severe wx does not occur. We need the cold to take control to avoid issues like this. Just isn't happening for another 10 days.

Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Prayers to your Dad Bro! Hope you and your Mom don't get it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:21 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Prayers to your Dad Bro! Hope you and your Mom don't get it.

Thank you Bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Eric, plenty of prayers for your family.

Looking at the models this morning and still have the afternoon ones coming in but the trend which we know is a friend is starting to see the colder air winning out later next week. The tropical areas settling down helps and with the AO negative its only a matter of time the colder air will win out. We still have the southeast ridge which is usually around but it also seems to losing some of its grip. Of course before we get there how much rainfall will the area get. Hopefully its spread out over 2-3 systems and different areas get hit. The ground is not frozen so it can still soak in some which is good.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:31 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Eric, plenty of prayers for your family.

Thank you, Tim

Guys, in my original post I had said the word transfusion, I meant infusion.

Monoclonal antibody treatment

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Sorry to hear, Eric. Will def be in my prayers.

Up to 30 degrees here in my hood.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:41 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:19 am Please keep in prayer my Dad as he tested positive this morning for Covid. We don't know if its the Delta or Omricon variant.

In late Nov he finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer so his immunity is probably lower.

We're waiting on our local hospital to call for him to come and get a transfusion therapy treatment.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Sorry to hear, Eric. Will def be in my prayers.

Up to 30 degrees here in my hood.

Thank you, Mike

Keep the faith Eric...prayers to you guys!

Euro bringing in a quarter inch of rain on Christmas Day at CVG.

More rain and mild wx for next week of course. Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s.

Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:23 pm Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days

I hope I'm not being generous... but I am delaying the cold until the 1/3 to 1/5 time frame at this point.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:58 pm Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s.

GFS says so as well.....check out the forecast sounding - CVG on New Year's Eve

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 1:58 pm Euro has strong storms now possible on NYE with low to mid 60 degree temps and dews in the U50s to perhaps even the L60s.

GFS says so as well.....check out the forecast sounding - CVG on New Year's Eve



gfs_2021122212_216_KCVG.png

If we can't get snow, may as well go with the thunder. Can do without a west KY thing though. But some noise would be alright.

Prob has already been discussed on here, but man o man the models are absolutely crushing the Sierra and Cascades out west from now until New Years. Euro has over 200" in the Sierra!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:36 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 2:23 pm Yea , the EU is ugly. We new the Arctic air would finally reach the northern plains and NW but not much further through Dec. and that is still the case . I really don't like that at the end it shows the pAc ridge retrograding which we said was an option, resulting in more delays,, hopefully that changes in the coming days

I hope I'm not being generous... but I am delaying the cold until the 1/3 to 1/5 time frame at this point.

That's what we have seemed to do for years now with these warm Decembers. Delay, delay, delay. Lol! Bastardi made a great case for an early start to winter. His analogs looked as if they where almost a can't fail, but we all know that doesn't always work out in real weather. We've seen this movie before. Not looking good for cold and snow. We can always see a dramatic flip. It's way too early to cancel winter. I haven't checked any of other WX sites for the Midwest, but I can just imagine what the Chicago folks are saying. Some of them are probably about to jump off the cliff. Lol! This very warm December pretty much seals the deal on another warmer than average winter. That, obviously, doesn't mean we can't still get snow to satisfy all the starving snow lovers on this forum, but I'm at the point I'm just going to enjoy whatever weather comes along. I used to get worked up about winters like this, but the older I get the less it bothers me.

12Z EPS is all -PNA thru Day 10 (NYD) Just can't catch a break.

Both ridges are strong.. need one of them to weaken or we won't see any changes in the pattern.

66 is the record at CVG on 12/25 from 1893. We've got a shot should the rain hold off a bit later.

That just looks like crap. Yeah I can see the SE ridge losing a little bit of its grip there in early January, but still a gradient pattern and mixing risks are high. Need a weak low to the south for overrunning. Any strong low is going to cut.

Decemba To Rememba